December 2022 Obs/Disc

[UnitedWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

No....Euro caught on around 132-138 hours out and no other models joined until like 2 or 3 runs later.

12/17/20 was seen over a week out.

I knew if anybody would remember it would be you. My God man, it's like dealing with Spock

[Sn0waddict]

You know we are going to get at least one model run where everything comes together and it absolutely destroys us. Can’t wait to see what that one looks like. 

[George001]

27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS 

Holy shit some of those are in the 960s and one is even in the 950s

[WxWatcher007]

20 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Pretty rare for the models to latch on in the long range and never waver. March ‘17 rings a bell, and the ‘16 mid Atlantic blizzard too. But I can’t think of any since. 

January ‘16 was extraordinary in DC. We kept waiting for the rug to get pulled and it never happened. 

I think it’s also worth noting that the Friday threat had been signaled for a while too. Models have done well highlighting potential so far imo.

4 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

You know we are going to get at least one model run where everything comes together and it absolutely destroys us. Can’t wait to see what that one looks like. 

Placing my bets on a HH GFS run.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, George001 said:

Holy shit some of those are in the 960s and one is even in the 950s

[Hoth]

9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

And you want to be my latex salesman…

[WinterWolf]

26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

No....Euro caught on around 132-138 hours out and no other models joined until like 2 or 3 runs later.

12/17/20 was seen over a week out.

I could have sworn the Euro had ‘13 way out for like 4 consecutive turns…then lost it some, then brought it back at the time range above. No? 

[Torch Tiger]

12z JMA looks dangerous.    But to me intuitively it would probably at least hug the coast, rather than transfer south of us.  SN mix to rain look.  Speaking for SE NE

 

 

[SnoSki14]

Shades of Feb 1978 perhaps 

[tamarack]

28 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

No....Euro caught on around 132-138 hours out and no other models joined until like 2 or 3 runs later.

12/17/20 was seen over a week out.

IIRC, there was a few days when the Euro and GFS would be slammer/OTS one run then OTS/slammer the next.  One could get whiplash following the changes.

[cut]

1 hour ago, UnitedWx said:

Wasn't 2013 like that also iirc

Was just thinking this same thing.

[UnitedWx]

34 minutes ago, cut said:

Was just thinking this same thing.

Apparently it wasn't, maybe I'm thinking 2015? This is according to Will, and we all know he has some kind of weather implant to Google in his brain. The man can recall events 30 years ago on a dime

[512high]

Just now, UnitedWx said:

Apparently it wasn't, maybe I'm thinking 2015? This is according to Will, and we all know he has some kind of weather pack to Google implant in his brain. The man can recall events 30 years ago on a dime

You know I was wondering the same! I can't even tell you what I had for dinner last Friday!

[78Blizzard]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I wonder when

‘ big events show up really early in the guidance ‘

should apply 

It all depends on how you define "big events".  For SNE rainers they apply frequently.

[cut]

19 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Apparently it wasn't, maybe I'm thinking 2015? This is according to Will, and we all know he has some kind of weather pack to Google implant in his brain. The man can recall events 30 years ago on a dime

I think Boxing Day did the ole 'early signal - lost the signal - then brought it back' like 72 hours out. That was a trend there for a while IIRC

[78Blizzard]

Seems like big changes thus far at h5 on the GFS from 12z.

[ORH_wxman]

11 minutes ago, cut said:

I think Boxing Day did the ole 'early signal - lost the signal - then brought it back' like 72 hours out. That was a trend there for a while IIRC

Boxing Day did have it and lost it but it didn’t bring it back until 48 hours out or even less. It was 12z GFS on 12/24 that went nuts and HPC tossed it, lol…then it quickly became apparent at 18z that it had scored a coup as NAM went bonkers and then I think RGEM did (before 18z GFS confirmed the 12z run wasn’t a random model blip)

[cut]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Boxing Day did have it and lost it but it didn’t bring it back until 48 hours out or even less. It was 12z GFS on 12/24 that went nuts and HPC tossed it, lol…then it quickly became apparent at 18z that it had scored a coup as NAM went bonkers and then I think RGEM did (before 18z GFS confirmed the 12z run wasn’t a random model blip)

That's right - the NAM was thought of as the blind squirrel finding a nut.

[cut]

Love what I see for next week - I have to try to contain myself. Every time I talk up the models I put the jinx on the threat, plus everyone looks at me sideways "the GF what? The yoro - wasn't that a car in the 80's from Yugoslavia?"

[cut]

' The gyro - you know that greek lunch time treat!!!'

[ORH_wxman]

GFS looks like a mushroom cloud ready to go off….prob gonna be fun in a few more frames. 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS looks like a mushroom cloud ready to go off….prob gonna be fun in a few more frames. 

 

[dmillz25]

Just now, MJO812 said:

 

Just misses but overall pattern looks excellent 

[78Blizzard]

You could see big changes at h5 from 12z.  The earlier run had a ridge running from the central plains all the way up into southern Canada.  Not there this time.

[WinterWolf]

14 minutes ago, cut said:

Love what I see for next week - I have to try to contain myself. Every time I talk up the models I put the jinx on the threat, plus everyone looks at me sideways "the GF what? The yoro - wasn't that a car in the 80's from Yugoslavia?"

You already Ginxed it lmao…it’s too far east.  It’s over . 

[ORH_wxman]

Thought that would end up better based on aloft. But either way the threat is clearly there. 

[WinterWolf]

13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

You already Ginxed it lmao…it’s too far east.  It’s over . 

Was just messing around with ya…cuz you mentioned that you had to contain your excitement, and not talk it up.  As soon as you said that, GFS went way out east. 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Thought that would end up better based on aloft. But either way the threat is clearly there. 

Ya that was rather lackluster….

[CoastalWx]

Works for me. Rather see that vs 970 over BUF.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, Hoth said:

Pretty rare for the models to latch on in the long range and never waver. March ‘17 rings a bell, and the ‘16 mid Atlantic blizzard too. But I can’t think of any since. 

1/7/96 and PDII