December 2022 Obs/Disc

[CoastalWx]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its not the same....that's like being a bandwagon team when your team loses.

Thanks for making me laugh in a stressful morning.  

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

None of the 3 major ensemble means give me a warm and fuzzy about that pre-Xmas system...most of the energy looks west again. The ceiling looks something akin to that crap on Friday...as of now.

The antecedent airmass is better, but the mean track is worse than this Friday, so it’s basically a wash in my eyes at this point.

Obviously a lot can change, but the current look is basically congrats north country.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The antecedent airmass is better, but the mean track is worse than this Friday, so it’s basically a wash in my eyes at this point.

Obviously a lot can change, but the current look is basically congrats north country.

The current look, agreed. The hope is that given other changes that are ongoing, that it will trend more favorably.

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah, this is a pretty incredible signal

closed upper level high in the Beaufort Sea, +PNA, stout WB -NAO, a transient 50/50 feature, and a ridiculously vigorous shortwave for this lead time

all of the pieces are there for a significant storm. where it goes is anyone's guess at this point but this is a very, very high end signal. could impact the coast or the Lakes, no way for anyone to really tell right now

even if it heads to the lakes you'd have to think there is redevelopment off the coast given the confluence ahead

[brooklynwx99]

this is the type of potential next week holds. this is just an insanely dynamic solution

you get that over the ocean and George wouldn't even be hyperbolic about his description of it

[Ginx snewx]

Rivaling epic cold Christmas . 

[NorEastermass128]

The 80’s called. They said hello and welcome. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

20 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is the type of potential next week holds. this is just an insanely dynamic solution

you get that over the ocean and George wouldn't even be hyperbolic about his description of it

Get that to verify 250 miles East and wow.. Would be the storm of our lifetime as it falls Dec 22-24th with epic cold behind.. 

[Typhoon Tip]

For winter storm enthusiast you just need to get that thing under Long Island as opposed to curling up thru Pennsylvania a New York state  

I mean we’re in signal recognition mode but in so far as what the model run looks like there with that Canadian….

The shortest avenue to doing that would be having the western ridge push into into the High Plains as that mass of mechanics gets ejected east.  The other way might be to exert more negative NAO in which case we start the Minnesota squeeze antics again. 

[brooklynwx99]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

For winter storm enthusiast you just need to get that thing under Long Island as opposed to curling up thru Pennsylvania a New York state  

I mean we’re in signal recognition mode but in so far as what the model run looks like there with that Canadian….

The shortest avenue to doing that would be having the western ridge push into into the High Plains as that mass of mechanics gets ejected east.  The other way might be to exert more negative NAO in which case we start the Minnesota squeeze antics again. 

speaking of exertion of more -NAO... look at the correction towards a much stronger -NAO over the last model cycle from the GEFS

[40/70 Benchmark]

51 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is the type of potential next week holds. this is just an insanely dynamic solution

you get that over the ocean and George wouldn't even be hyperbolic about his description of it

That's like Blizz of '78 type crap...coastal impacts probably not withstanding. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

speaking of exertion of more -NAO... look at the correction towards a much stronger -NAO over the last model cycle from the GEFS

Everything is much further east than yesterday. I like that.  

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Considering it’s 230+ hours out, remarkable consistency on the Canadian.

[bwt3650]

Vt ski area approved 12z runs…days and days of fake snow.


.

[George001]

this threat looks a lot better than the Friday one. Verbatim the low is too inland to eastern areas, but the airmass is way colder than it will be for the Friday threat. The Friday threat probably won’t pan out for eastern areas, but it did go from a low In Wisconsin to a Miller B. Hell, the airmass is so cold for this threat, we might see decent snow totals even east of the low.

[George001]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Everything is much further east than yesterday. I like that.  

That 976 just off the cape would be nice

[tavwtby]

berks gearing up for possibly two 16+ storms in a week huh...ALY cutting off the warning snows for this one just NW of my area, this will be one of those where Norfolk gets 6+ and I get 2/3" imby, but hold hope next week pans out, plenty of excitement in the tracking department, much better than last year

[SnoSki14]

Quite the storm potential next week.

Will it be a dynamic arctic front or a Miller B is the question. Regardless a massive chunk of arctic air will be unleashed for Christmas 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

21 minutes ago, George001 said:

this threat looks a lot better than the Friday one. Verbatim the low is too inland to eastern areas, but the airmass is way colder than it will be for the Friday threat. The Friday threat probably won’t pan out for eastern areas, but it did go from a low In Wisconsin to a Miller B. Hell, the airmass is so cold for this threat, we might see decent snow totals even east of the low.

Ray loves this depiction. Rain for Methuen, heavy snow for NYC

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

If next week plays out the way most models are showing it today, the melts will be epic like this board has never seen before.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

If next week plays out the way most models are showing it today, the melts will be epic like this board has never seen before.

The Euro just trended favorable 

Wow at the cold

[WxWatcher007]

Next week looks nuclear. We don’t need to be the jackpot zone this far out, just in the game. It’s far closer at that lead time than Friday ever was.

[Hoth]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

If next week plays out the way most models are showing it today, the melts will be epic like this board has never seen before.

And you’ll probably account for 90% of them the way things are going. 

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The Euro just trended favorable 

Wow at the cold

Things wouldn't have to change too much for a more favorable outcome.

A stronger PNA spike or a stronger 50/50 due to better Atlantic blocking could do the trick. I would prefer a better PNA 

[Torch Tiger]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The Euro just trended favorable 

Wow at the cold

looks like crap if you want snow

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 hours ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Get that to verify 250 miles East and wow.. Would be the storm of our lifetime as it falls Dec 22-24th with epic cold behind.. 

it’s the cmc but it’s been showing a big one pretty consistently over the last several runs. 

[brooklynwx99]

all that really matters on the 12z ECMWF is that we saw a bunch of changes that increase the likelihood of a significant event:

• more favorable PNA ridging
• block is now cut off into the Davis Strait and is stronger
• more favorably placed 50/50 ULL

this all leads to a much better outcome in terms of seeing a highly impactful storm. I think the blocking is forcing this, for the most part

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Next week looks nuclear. We don’t need to be the jackpot zone this far out, just in the game. It’s far closer at that lead time than Friday ever was.

Yup

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

And you’ll probably account for 90% of them the way things are going. 

You bet your ass.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

If next week plays out the way most models are showing it today, the melts will be epic like this board has never seen before.

Thanks Donald.