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December 2022 Obs/Disc


40/70 Benchmark
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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That system is all we have before Xmas. I'm not sure where Scott sees another pre Xmas threat, but that's it.

I maybe about 4 days off from punting December. I thought the coast would struggle this month, but I didn't expect to be virtually shut out clear back to near ORH.

I'm at the point where I need more than a hr 270 H5 plot make me feel as though the luck is going to change anytime before the ball drops.

Agreed. I said I would be disappointed if we made it to Christmas without a decent event. And for Wolfie; no, I’m not counting the 2” I got the other night as an “event”.

Ive been staring at charts!! For 3 weeks 

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13 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Agreed. I said I would be disappointed if we made it to Christmas without a decent event. And for Wolfie; no, I’m not counting the 2” I got the other night as an “event”.

Ive been staring at charts!! For 3 weeks 

Tellin' ya, Winter doesn't start here till after Christmas. 

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10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Obscenely loud signal between the the 20th and Xmas. 

Some if these individual GEF members  are quite extraordinary. 

Yes. There is no reason why we can't have all hell break loose to send us into the holiday....but the question is where will hell break loose, and will it be hell perceived through our lens, or the collective one of the masses??

Tic, toc...

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1 minute ago, 512high said:

Maybe a miracle on "34th Street"?? 

 Nice reference there 

… Something big is out there. For now, that is all. It could ORD … it could be BOS … it could in between. But these members are some sort of exotically powerful and large -most likely would require a multi faceted risk profile/spectrum event. 

Model mag would tone it down to just a major ordeal.  

Gotta assume that, and also allow for this to emerge in general. But the signals itself is about as robust as is possible 

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19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Obscenely loud signal between the the 20th and Xmas. 

Some if these individual GEF members  are quite extraordinary. 

yeah, this is a pretty incredible signal

closed upper level high in the Beaufort Sea, +PNA, stout WB -NAO, a transient 50/50 feature, and a ridiculously vigorous shortwave for this lead time

all of the pieces are there for a significant storm. where it goes is anyone's guess at this point but this is a very, very high end signal. could impact the coast or the Lakes, no way for anyone to really tell right now

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-1753600.thumb.png.64a46d9d4e39add9f871eb62213780b9.png

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1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah, this is a pretty incredible signal

closed upper level high in the Beaufort Sea, +PNA, stout WB -NAO, a transient 50/50 feature, and a ridiculously vigorous shortwave for this lead time

all of the pieces are there for a significant storm. where it goes is anyone's guess at this point

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-1753600.thumb.png.64a46d9d4e39add9f871eb62213780b9.png

I know what my guess would be looking at this...

1671883200-bZlPAdRuVgs.png1671926400-mfRq8kcfnHc.png1671818400-dGxXJTb0iPk.png

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6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah, this is a pretty incredible signal

closed upper level high in the Beaufort Sea, +PNA, stout WB -NAO, a transient 50/50 feature, and a ridiculously vigorous shortwave for this lead time

all of the pieces are there for a significant storm. where it goes is anyone's guess at this point but this is a very, very high end signal. could impact the coast or the Lakes, no way for anyone to really tell right now

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-1753600.thumb.png.64a46d9d4e39add9f871eb62213780b9.png

Perfectly phrased ^

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2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

there is a ton of spread here. a good bunch of those are true coastals, too. anything is on the table

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-east-mslp_with_low_locs-1775200.thumb.png.17892cac692e5d27d60d8159ddc386aa.png

When isn't there spread at day 10? The point is that the mean has been pinned to a follow up rendition of Friday. There is no denying it.

Time to change? Sure....will that pattern allow? You bet...and it would not surprise me.

But its needs to....

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7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 Nice reference there 

… Something big is out there. For now, that is all. It could ORD … it could be BOS … it could in between. But these members are some sort of exotically powerful and large -most likely would require a multi faceted risk profile/spectrum event. 

Model mag would tone it down to just a major ordeal.  

Gotta assume that, and also allow for this to emerge in general. But the signals itself is about as robust as is possible 

Tip you have my permission to use my "Miracle on 34th Street" if you are the one to start  a thread when and if the time comes" (lol ya, no copyright on that) or we may have alot of obituaries to read ....)

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7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

When isn't there spread at day 10? The point is that the mean has been pinned to a follow up rendition of Friday. There is no denying it.

Time to change? Sure....will that pattern allow? You bet...

But its needs to....

i don't know, the patterns are wholly different and the block should have a much easier time exerting itself now that there's a full-latitude ridge over the WC. the pattern for next week is much, much, more conducive for a favorable outcome over the NE US. it just has the look, so to speak

the antecedent airmass is also way colder and climo is more favorable as well. I get what you're saying, but I think this setup holds so much more potential. i get the trepidation, and I don't mean to come off as argumentative... just spelling out what I'm seeing

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_1.thumb.png.5a563e0f663b19dd81ebbcc22e4edd16.pnggfs-ens_z500a_nhem_34.thumb.png.7937e5f7e027dc2f2bdfcb1fdbdc27ea.png

gfs-ens_T850a_us_3.thumb.png.2781bd29b26c21d0eef7738c1b00e306.pnggfs-ens_T850a_us_31.thumb.png.ed949c612b08875256e349df66b19472.png

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Just now, 512high said:

Tip you have my permission to use my "Miracle on 34th Street" if you are the one to start  a thread when and if the time comes" (lol ya, no copyright on that) or we may have alot of obituaries to read ....)

"Here lays Ray. His outlooks were long and H5 looked great".

RIP-

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2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i don't know, the patterns are wholly different and the block should have a much easier time exerting itself now that there's a full-latitude ridge over the WC. the pattern for next week is much, much, more conducive for a favorable outcome over the NE US. it just has the look, so to speak

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_1.thumb.png.5a563e0f663b19dd81ebbcc22e4edd16.pnggfs-ens_z500a_nhem_34.thumb.png.7937e5f7e027dc2f2bdfcb1fdbdc27ea.png

the antecedent airmass is also way colder and climo is more favorable as well. I get what you're saying, but I think this setup holds so much more potential

gfs-ens_T850a_us_3.thumb.png.2781bd29b26c21d0eef7738c1b00e306.pnggfs-ens_T850a_us_31.thumb.png.ed949c612b08875256e349df66b19472.png

Yes...agreed. I just pretty much said the same thing with less bells and whistles.

My previous commentary was just based on the current appeal of the three major ensemble suites. Correction vector is more favorable....and the closer we get to January/later in December, the fuse is closer to getting lit is my feeling.

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Friday's system was parakeets to Maine 10 days out and look how that turned out....only about a 700-1000 mile error....this one with a much better antecedent airmass? Who knows what it will look like once we're inside of 6 days. Def way more potential than Friday though.

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Friday's system was parakeets to Maine 10 days out and look how that turned out....only about a 700-1000 mile error....this one with a much better antecedent airmass? Who knows what it will look like once we're inside of 6 days. Def way more potential than Friday though.

Good point. Its easy to overlook because its still rain...guilty as charged. That fits with the old fable of "cutters lock in early".

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14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Friday's system was parakeets to Maine 10 days out and look how that turned out....only about a 700-1000 mile error....this one with a much better antecedent airmass? Who knows what it will look like once we're inside of 6 days. Def way more potential than Friday though.

There’s no accounting for stretched x-coordinate/fast hemisphere in the extended model behavior.

I mean it’s something they tend to correct away from out in time, but then have to add back.  That’s why I was coveting optimism actually when I saw that huge warm bulge in south eastern Canada in recent Euros - first thing I thought of is that warm ball will likely end up above 600mbs as an NAO block…

Now I don’t know if that’s actually going to happen?  But it more than merely seems that everything ends up correcting some 1500 km east in the atmospheric logistics moving D 11+ to D 4..5

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