December 2022 Obs/Disc

[Damage In Tolland]

Who will whistle ?

[Henry's Weather]

4 hours ago, George001 said:

Ah that’s too bad, but the increased water vapor could still lead to an increase in low strength. The question will be if that will be enough to offset the warming or not.

Excess warming leads to decreased polar-equator temp gradient, which might mean that zonal flow is more disruptable (as less of a temp gradient means jet is weaker). Pinging mets for verification.

[CoastalWx]

12” of snow

 

 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Excess warming leads to decreased polar-equator temp gradient, which might mean that zonal flow is more disruptable (as less of a temp gradient means jet is weaker). Pinging mets for verification.

From what I’ve seen, it would act as a green house gas and warm the planet. 

[Henry's Weather]

23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

From what I’ve seen, it would act as a green house gas and warm the planet. 

Yeah, my hypothesis was that increased warming leads to decreased polar-equator twmp gradient since GW tends to disproportionally warm the north pole, causing the increased disruptability (more variable 500 mb heights for ex.). I wasn't disputing the warming aspect.

[UnitedWx]

9 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

That doesn’t help us either…rains in SNE too on that.  Fantasy joke at this point, but ya, big blocks can make incredible things happen. 

Yeah, just ask New Jersey I had snow plow friends heading down there to work while we were all crying

[WxUSAF]

1 hour ago, Henry's Weather said:

Excess warming leads to decreased polar-equator temp gradient, which might mean that zonal flow is more disruptable (as less of a temp gradient means jet is weaker). Pinging mets for verification.

 

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

From what I’ve seen, it would act as a green house gas and warm the planet. 

 

49 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Yeah, my hypothesis was that increased warming leads to decreased polar-equator twmp gradient since GW tends to disproportionally warm the north pole, causing the increased disruptability (more variable 500 mb heights for ex.). I wasn't disputing the warming aspect.

Excess stratospheric water vapor warms the surface through the normal greenhouse effect, but it cools the stratosphere itself through that IR emission. You’re already seeing this in the southern hemisphere with a very cold stratosphere. That’s why, from a weather weenie POV it could be bad for snow chances as it would tend to reinforce a cold stable strat wintertime   PV.

[Cold Miser]

...It's coming...

 

[CoastalWx]

Sneaky highway Phil tonight in the interior? Might be some light glaze. 

[CoastalWx]

Stratocu coming off the ocean. CJ season is near.

[ORH_wxman]

Starting to get some weird cutoff scenarios on the OP GFS runs out in clown range. That is not uncommon with the type of block in place. You just hope you cash in on one of them. 

[Cold Miser]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Starting to get some weird cutoff scenarios on the OP GFS runs out in clown range. That is not uncommon with the type of block in place. You just hope you cash in on one of them. 

 

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Starting to get some weird cutoff scenarios on the OP GFS runs out in clown range. That is not uncommon with the type of block in place. You just hope you cash in on one of them. 

Let’s get one to bury Richmond and rain on Methuen.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, powderfreak said:

18z GFS shows what miracles can come from a huge block.

Retrogrades this sucker right into a New England rainer that blue bombs the mid-Atlantic.  That ocean storm hits a brick wall and backs it right up.

 

IMG_1725.MOV 876.98 kB · 12 downloads  

 

I would absolutely go unhinged.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Let’s get one to bury Richmond and rain on Methuen.

You would think at some point that I am going to catch a break, but I guess I have been paying for March 2018.

[CoastalWx]

It’s almost worth seeing the melt.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s almost worth seeing the melt.

I'd probably end up having DCF enter my life after destroying all of the kids toys...do irreparable damage to therapy clients, the whole works.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You would think at some point that I am going to catch a break, but I guess I have been paying for March 2018.

Well hopefully it doesn’t happen lol. 
 

I do think the flavor of early season blocking does favor interior. Just my gut. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd probably end up having DCF enter my life after destroying all of the kids toys...do irreparable damage to therapy clients, the whole works.

Dude this made me almost choke.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Well hopefully it doesn’t happen lol. 
 

I do think the flavor of early season blocking does favor interior. Just my gut. 

That was my early season call, too.

Hopefully more like a I495 thing, and not a Berkshires thing.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I was thinking like a January 2003 vibe when I wrote up the early season portion of the outlook.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That was my early season call, too.

Hopefully more like a I495 thing, and not a Berkshires thing.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

I had that one in mind lol

I think where I am now made out better than Wilmington did....I remember even the next town over, in Billerica, had a couple of more inches of paste than I did.

[CoastalWx]

Ahh January 2003. 90/128 interchange. Where you went from heaven to hell in a few miles. Thank the good lord Feb and Mar came through that year.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ahh January 2003. 90/128 interchange. Where you went from heaven to hell in a few miles. Thank the good lord Feb and Mar came through that year.

I remember I was commuting to Devens back in Jan 2003, as my reserve unit was training to deploy after being mobilzed. Wilmington was pretty much on the right side of things, with about a foot of concrete, but over in Ayer, it was about 18" of powder.

I drove down to NC and we picked up a guy in PVD on the way down and it was just a barren wasteland hahaha.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I remember I was commuting to Devens back in Jan 2003, as my reserve unit was training to deploy after being mobilzed. Wilmington was pretty much on the right side of things, with about a foot of concrete, but over in Ayer, it was about 18" of powder.

I drove down to NC and we picked up a guy in PVD on the way down and it was just a barren wasteland hahaha.

It really was remarkable how quickly it diminished SE of that junction. When I was in Lowell, there was about 2’ otg. About half inch to inch of icy crud at home. I guess enough for Steve to go tobogganing though.  

[SnoSki14]

Models are keen on the change beginning Dec 7/8 but snow chances won't be immediate. 

Could we avoid the Grinch storm this year? Signs point to yes

[Typhoon Tip]

Nice cold cap out there this morning. Dropped to 22 then the clouds came over right at dawn and now it’s mid morning with heavy frost everywhere…

[Typhoon Tip]

23 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Models are keen on the change beginning Dec 7/8 but snow chances won't be immediate. 

Could we avoid the Grinch storm this year? Signs point to yes

… It’s an evolving situation…

I consider that Lakes cutter around the 7th as a boundary storm along the mode change / mainly -EPO driven … a transit that last week looked like a positive +PNAP triggered passage.  

But the PNAP aspect’s been delayed possibly indefinitely I’m not sure… I mean whether we get a western North American Ridge and all that jazz thereafter is still under debate to me but yeah it’s been showing up in some of the guidance.  

It’s nice to finally see the operational guidance versions of the Euro and the American coming around to picking up the exertion of the negative NAO. Man it’s unnerving tho … The NAO history is a catalogue of disappointments … when it looked clad, but then never really developed and/or ended up doing some variation that didn’t parlay well.  And so here we are trying to depend on one that’s still modeled beyond day 7 …particularly towards mid month that’ll stroke winter enthusiasts some 4 weeks ahead of climo no less. 

There is a little solace in the fact that when you step back and look at it from orbit the hemisphere appears that it has no choice but to end up in a negative NAO. I’m just hoping that model magnification will actually be our ally in this case and that what verifies is a more moderate negative NAO blocking …such that doesn’t become overbearing

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

… It’s an evolving situation…

I consider that Lakes cutter around the 7th as a boundary storm along the mode change / mainly -EPO driven … a transit that last week looked like a positive +PNAP triggered passage.  

But the PNAP aspect’s been delayed possibly indefinitely I’m not sure… I mean whether we get a western North American Ridge and all that jazz thereafter is still under debate to me but yeah it’s been showing up in some of the guidance.  

It’s nice to finally see the operational guidance versions of the Euro and the American coming around to picking up the exertion of the negative NAO. Man it’s unnerving tho … The NAO history is a catalogue of disappointments … when it looked clad, but then never really developed and/or ended up doing some variation that didn’t parlay well.  And so here we are trying to depend on one that still modeled beyond day 7 …particularly towards mid month that’ll stroke winter enthusiasts some 4 weeks ahead of climo no less. 

There is a little solace in the fact that when you step back and look at it from orbit the hemisphere appears that it has no choice but to end up in a negative NAO. I’m just hoping that model magnification will actually be our ally in this case and that what actually verifies is a more moderate negative NAO blocking …such that doesn’t become overbearing

I'm not as worried about that given the state of the Pacific..its hard to screw up an RNA/neg NAO regime from the perspective of a SNE winter enthusiast.