Typhoon Tip Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: My examples are to show the different types of solutions the EPS are showing. While a majority do not show cutters, I'd say a chunk show something that may not be pretty. So guidance sees something in that. If I had a gun to my head, I would say it is not a cutter pattern, but we know it doesn't preclude them. See I kinda lean the other way, ...I'd call it a cutter pattern with the possibility of stretching the field ..which can lead to fun shit that way. But the -EPO look with limited counterbalancing -NAO ( this time around...) and a "La Nina -based +PNA" wants to dump chunk troughing into 100W which...as we know, would put ST L to Michigan in the telecon cross hairs. The difference that "might" be useful to winter enthusiasts back east is that the flow probably resumes a faster base-line state... That has a tendency to fiddle with wave lengths in interesting ways as much as it can be hostile - either direction. There's a loud signal in the 20-24th period... Let's see how it starts emerge in the deterministics.... Heh, it's not that long away. 7 days it's the 20th.. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Some light snow falling. At least it feels like winter 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 13 minutes ago, Chris12WX said: We had a storm on Sunday and another one coming Friday. Guess we didn’t/aren’t tracking those. RAIN for most that's why (friday) Most here are on the coastal plain but congrats inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: See I kinda lean the other way, ...I'd call it a cutter pattern with the possibility of stretching the field ..which can lead to fun shit that way. But the -EPO look with limited counterbalancing -NAO ( this time around...) and a "La Nina -based +PNA" wants to dump chunk troughing into 100W which...as we know, would put ST L to Michigan in the telecon cross hairs. The difference that "might" be useful to winter enthusiasts back east is that the flow probably resumes a faster base-line state... That has a tendency to fiddle with wave lengths in interesting ways as much as it can be hostile - either direction. There's a loud signal in the 20-24th period... Let's see how it starts emerge in the deterministics.... Heh, it's not that long away. 7 days it's the 20th.. The pitchforks will be out lol. I guess my whole point is that I'm not sure I look at that and say '''yep..cutter." But, if it happened...I wouldn't be surprised maybe? Whatevs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 On 12/4/2022 at 11:48 AM, Ginx snewx said: I would permanently retire from Wxobs if this was a rainstorm. No way We won't hold you to it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The pitchforks will be out lol. I guess my whole point is that I'm not sure I look at that and say '''yep..cutter." But, if it happened...I wouldn't be surprised maybe? Whatevs. Yeah six/dozen or half of another ... It's a fence enough look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: We won't hold you to it. What would you be holding him to? That structure is unlikely...so there's no purpose are method for testing whether it would rain or not - so it's good that you won't hold him to it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2022 Author Share Posted December 13, 2022 People need to understand why seasons like 2010-2011 are top 5-10 seasons...you don't get that from just a pretty H5 pic in the seasonal mean. That is requisite, sure....but you also need the snow gods to give you a reach around, which is pretty difficult to predict. The pretty H5 pic means you bought mother nature dinner, which makes it more likely that she puts out, but blue balls are always on the table. 8 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2022 Author Share Posted December 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah six/dozen or half of another ... It's a fence enough look I won't be suprised if we don't really end up with much in December and still end up with a damn good season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: People need to understand why seasons like 2010-2011 are top 5-10 seasons...you don't get that from just a pretty H5 pic in the seasonal mean. That is requisite, sure....but you also need the snow gods to give you a reach around, which is pretty difficult to predict. The pretty H5 pic means you bought mother nature dinner, which makes it more likely that she puts out, but blue balls are always on the table. And when you average 40-60 like most in SNE , prepare on not getting laid after dinner , unless she’s drunk and pantsless (inside 4 days modeled snow storm) and If the stars line up and you do , don’t imagine seeing her “O” face but couple times a season 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: What would you be holding him to? That structure is unlikely...so there's no purpose are method for testing whether it would rain or not - so it's good that you won't hold him to it. Calm down. Just trying to spread a little levity here... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Pornhub.com ? 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 I like the look of the 18z GEFS . Let’s get all guidance to look like that for next Thursday Friday. 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 1 hour ago, 78Blizzard said: Calm down. Just trying to spread a little levity here... Fair enough but try to make it funny then lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: I like the look of the 18z GEFS . Let’s get all guidance to look like that for next Thursday Friday. Wave length is longer than best fit there … but, you know I just got done talking about a faster flow lending to x-coordinate extension. Who knows. I tell you tho, the numerical Tele connector/PNA really likes that time from 20th+. It’s got a pretty clear Archibald recovery signal there with an actual mode change as opposed to just rising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Wave length is longer than best fit there … but, you know I just got done talking about a faster flow lending to x-coordinate extension. Who knows. I tell you tho, the numerical Tele connector/PNA really likes that time from 20th+. It’s got a pretty clear Archibald recovery signal there with an actual mode change as opposed to just rising Archambault. Heather Archambault presented at one of the conferences back in the day. The case of January 2005 was studied. Pretty impressive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Archambault. Heather Archambault presented at one of the conferences back in the day. The case of January 2005 was studied. Pretty impressive. I know who it is but I’m not gonna fix what this phone does on the couch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: I know who it is but I’m not gonna fix what this phone does on the couch Where is she now? I wonder...very bright light and pretty young-probably late 20s at the time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monadnocks Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 30 minutes ago, weathafella said: Where is she now? I wonder...very bright light and pretty young-probably late 20s at the time. My guess https://www.linkedin.com/in/heather-archambault and https://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/heathera/ Amazing work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 30 minutes ago, weathafella said: Where is she now? I wonder...very bright light and pretty young-probably late 20s at the time. Probably still hiding from snarf after our 1st conference…lol. RIP to him though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 10 minutes ago, dendrite said: Probably still hiding from snarf after our 1st conference…lol. RIP to him though. I remember that. Cringeworthy.....poor snarf.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Getting some heavier snow tonight. Just got a special weather statement for some heavy snow showers bringing a “quick inch” 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 I hope this is right and we don’t have a long thaw in the middle of winter (3-4 week+). November and the first part of December were mild so we might have gotten the thaw out of the way early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 4 hours ago, 78Blizzard said: We won't hold you to it. 510 at the BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Squalls moving south in NH and Maine and parts of VT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Outer band wrapping around the ocean storm to the east that's retrograding back towards ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Christmas storm coming in way better than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: Christmas storm coming in way better than 18z Lol..we still don’t know how the one in 2-3 days is gonna turn out yet. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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