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December 2022 Obs/Disc


40/70 Benchmark
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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

My examples are to show the different types of solutions the EPS are showing. While a majority do not show cutters, I'd say a chunk show something that may not be pretty. So guidance sees something in that. If I had a gun to my head, I would say it is not a cutter pattern, but we know it doesn't preclude them. 

See I kinda lean the other way, ...I'd call it a cutter pattern with the possibility of stretching the field ..which can lead to fun shit that way.

But the -EPO look with limited counterbalancing -NAO ( this time around...) and a "La Nina -based +PNA" wants to dump chunk troughing into 100W which...as we know, would put ST L to Michigan in the telecon cross hairs.

The difference that "might" be useful to winter enthusiasts back east is that the flow probably resumes a faster base-line state... That has a tendency to fiddle with wave lengths in interesting ways as much as it can be hostile  - either direction.

There's a loud signal in the 20-24th period...  Let's see how it starts emerge in the deterministics....  Heh, it's not that long away.  7 days it's the 20th..

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13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

See I kinda lean the other way, ...I'd call it a cutter pattern with the possibility of stretching the field ..which can lead to fun shit that way.

But the -EPO look with limited counterbalancing -NAO ( this time around...) and a "La Nina -based +PNA" wants to dump chunk troughing into 100W which...as we know, would put ST L to Michigan in the telecon cross hairs.

The difference that "might" be useful to winter enthusiasts back east is that the flow probably resumes a faster base-line state... That has a tendency to fiddle with wave lengths in interesting ways as much as it can be hostile  - either direction.

There's a loud signal in the 20-24th period...  Let's see how it starts emerge in the deterministics....  Heh, it's not that long away.  7 days it's the 20th..

The pitchforks will be out lol.

I guess my whole point is that I'm not sure I look at that and say '''yep..cutter." But, if it happened...I wouldn't be surprised maybe?  Whatevs. 

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The pitchforks will be out lol.

I guess my whole point is that I'm not sure I look at that and say '''yep..cutter." But, if it happened...I wouldn't be surprised maybe?  Whatevs. 

Yeah six/dozen or half of another ...  It's a fence enough look

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People need to understand why seasons like 2010-2011 are top 5-10 seasons...you don't get that from just a pretty H5 pic in the seasonal mean. That is requisite, sure....but you also need the snow gods to give you a reach around, which is pretty difficult to predict. The pretty H5 pic means you bought mother nature dinner, which makes it more likely that she puts out, but blue balls are always on the table. 

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5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

People need to understand why seasons like 2010-2011 are top 5-10 seasons...you don't get that from just a pretty H5 pic in the seasonal mean. That is requisite, sure....but you also need the snow gods to give you a reach around, which is pretty difficult to predict. The pretty H5 pic means you bought mother nature dinner, which makes it more likely that she puts out, but blue balls are always on the table. 

And when you average 40-60 like most in SNE , prepare on not getting laid  after dinner  , unless she’s drunk and pantsless (inside 4 days modeled snow storm) and If the stars line up and you do , don’t imagine seeing her “O” face but couple times  a season 

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1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I like the look of the 18z GEFS . Let’s get all guidance to look like that for next Thursday Friday. 

5F096EA9-3B8C-4D6B-A0D7-22990C4C6312.gif

Wave length is longer than best fit there … but, you know I just got done talking about a faster flow lending to x-coordinate extension.  Who knows. 

I tell you tho,  the numerical Tele connector/PNA really likes that time from 20th+. It’s got a pretty clear Archibald recovery signal there with an actual mode change as opposed to just rising

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20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Wave length is longer than best fit there … but, you know I just got done talking about a faster flow lending to x-coordinate extension.  Who knows. 

I tell you tho,  the numerical Tele connector/PNA really likes that time from 20th+. It’s got a pretty clear Archibald recovery signal there with an actual mode change as opposed to just rising

Archambault.  Heather Archambault presented at one of the conferences back in the day.  The case of January 2005 was studied.  Pretty impressive.

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