December 2022 Obs/Disc

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Too much stress for some and not enough beer or edibles.

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i really don’t mean to argue… but this is a cutter pattern. a -PNA/+NAO/+EPO and a WAR with the mean track through the Plains

this is what we’re going to be seeing, for the most part. they are almost polar opposites

i don’t get the pessimism. it’s December 12th and people are seeing ghosts. sure, we could get a cutter, but the upcoming pattern certainly favors coastal systems and cold SWFEs much more than most

Your explanations are great, as are Will’s and Scott’s. Puts things into perspective.  
 

You got trolls(QgOmega and a few others)  everywhere saying it’s a Cutter pattern. It’s 10 days away. It’s rinse and repeat…Etc etc…. Lots of disinformation running rampant. I think most folks here get that there are no guarantees…even in the best looking set ups. But I like where we stand. 
 

Nuances mean everything.  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Your explanations are great, as are Will’s and Scott’s. Puts things into perspective.  
 

You got trolls(QgOmega and a few others)  everywhere saying it’s a Cutter pattern. It’s 10 days away. It’s rinse and repeat…Etc etc…. Lots of disinformation running rampant. I think most folks here get that there are no guarantees…even in the best looking set ups. But I like where we stand. 
 

Nuances mean everything.  

We hunt and track but holy moly…we can only get ourselves into a favorable pattern and roll the dice. Let’s leave the anxiety and melting for when we stare at an actual HECS threat at D3 that vanishes. 

[CoastalWx]

My examples are to show the different types of solutions the EPS are showing. While a majority do not show cutters, I'd say a chunk show something that may not be pretty. So guidance sees something in that. If I had a gun to my head, I would say it is not a cutter pattern, but we know it doesn't preclude them. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

My examples are to show the different types of solutions the EPS are showing. While a majority do not show cutters, I'd say a chunk show something that may not be pretty. So guidance sees something in that. If I had a gun to my head, I would say it is not a cutter pattern, but we know it doesn't preclude them. 

Oh we get ya pal. Appreciate the explanations and graphics. Thanks a bunch. 

[George001]

It’s frustrating that we are still tracking a pattern and not an actual storm. We had a massive -nao and nothing to show for it, what kind of bullshit is this? The teleconnections looked great for a big snow on Friday and now it’s a strung out piece of shit. Sorry for the negativity it’s just the past few winters have been bad so it’s frustrating to see the same shit over and over again. Lows aren’t supposed to ram into a block!

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We hunt and track but holy moly…we can only get ourselves into a favorable pattern and roll the dice. Let’s leave the anxiety and melting for when we stare at an actual HECS threat at D3 that vanishes. 

Very Well Said.
 

And a favorable pattern it looks to be. So let’s Roll away. The angst in here from some is disturbing to say the least. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, George001 said:

It’s frustrating that we are still tracking a pattern and not an actual storm. We had a massive -nao and nothing to show for it, what kind of bullshit is this? The teleconnections looked great for a big snow on Friday and now it’s a strung out piece of shit. Sorry for the negativity it’s just the past few winters have been bad so it’s frustrating to see the same shit over and over again.

But that’s weather pal. No guarantees..ever.  But that’s what keeps your ass coming back for more, don’t it?
 

Grow up a bit, and stop looking for blizzards every run…and maybe that’s when one “may”  show up, 

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, George001 said:

It’s frustrating that we are still tracking a pattern and not an actual storm. We had a massive -nao and nothing to show for it, what kind of bullshit is this? The teleconnections looked great for a big snow on Friday and now it’s a strung out piece of shit. Sorry for the negativity it’s just the past few winters have been bad so it’s frustrating to see the same shit over and over again. Lows aren’t supposed to ram into a block!

Umm, for Foxboro?? 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

The easiest way to cause an uproar is to mention cutter , leads to meltdowns , and Witch trials for some weenies . There should be a re education camp for folks ..like they have in western areas of China Till the word cutter is banished from their vocabulary  . In all seriousness , many of us met each other , it is funny - all parts of most discussions here 

Its gonna be a fun 15 days leading into the holidays 
 

hopefully the WOR folks can cash in on a front end thump like 18z nam shows 

[SJonesWX]

30 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i really don’t mean to argue… but this is a cutter pattern. a -PNA/+NAO/+EPO and a WAR with the mean track through the Plains

this is what we’re going to be seeing, for the most part. they are almost polar opposites

i don’t get the pessimism. it’s December 12th and people are seeing ghosts. sure, we could get a cutter, but the upcoming pattern certainly favors coastal systems and cold SWFEs much more than most

us weiners appreciate the explanations that the mets are giving in this thread. 

NOT speaking for myself, but part of the problem might be the excitement since around Tgiving about this beautiful pattern, and how that beautiful pattern hasn't really produced. then you have 40/70 (not slamming him, at all) saying he is expecting a relaxation in the pattern in January, and you get panic, since there are only 3 weeks left for this supposedly beautiful pattern. throw in the Negative Nancies like Tblizz and there you go. Tobin bridge, here they come.

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

us weiners appreciate the explanations that the mets are giving in this thread. 

NOT speaking for myself, but part of the problem might be the excitement since around Tgiving about this beautiful pattern, and how that beautiful pattern hasn't really produced. then you have 40/70 (not slamming him, at all) saying he is expecting a relaxation in the pattern in January, and you get panic, since there are only 3 weeks left for this supposedly beautiful pattern. throw in the Negative Nancies like Tblizz and there you go. Tobin bridge, here they come.

Good post.
 

But if one has some common sense regarding weather, one should know that just because somebody expects something, that doesn’t mean that the weather will cooperate at all, in either direction. 
 

The supposed relaxation could come at the end of January(which in that case gives the nervous folks 6 weeks lol).  I mean people get themselves all worked up as if any of them can know what is actually gonna happen. It’s almost ridiculous. 

Great patterns don’t guarantee anything. They just increase your odds some of not striking out…But you still can and do some times. 

[8611Blizz]

14 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

The easiest way to cause an uproar is to mention cutter , leads to meltdowns , and Witch trials for some weenies . There should be a re education camp for folks ..like they have in western areas of China Till the word cutter is banished from their vocabulary  . In all seriousness , many of us met each other , it is funny - all parts of most discussions here 

Its gonna be a fun 15 days leading into the holidays 
 

hopefully the WOR folks can cash in on a front end thump like 18z nam shows 

 Who will run these camps? I nominate Will and Scooter?

[George001]

 

1 minute ago, SJonesWX said:

us weiners appreciate the explanations that the mets are giving in this thread. 

NOT speaking for myself, but part of the problem might be the excitement since around Tgiving about this beautiful pattern, and how that beautiful pattern hasn't really produced. then you have 40/70 (not slamming him, at all) saying he is expecting a relaxation in the pattern in January, and you get panic, since there are only 3 weeks left for this supposedly beautiful pattern. throw in the Negative Nancies like Tblizz and there you go. Tobin bridge, here they come.

Yeah, we need the mid Jan relaxation to disappear or be delayed to mid Feb for the epic winter that it looked like we were headed for in late November to verify. To be fair, that’s very possible and the EPS weeklies show about a 6 week favorable period. There’s going to be lulls, but the question is always when we get a favorable pattern how long will it last? Most years we do get a favorable pattern at some point (there are exceptions). How good the winter ends up being often depends on how long that favorable pattern lasts. Last year it only lasted 3 weeks (granted those 3 weeks were REALLY good), and the rest of the winter sucked. Hopefully we get 6-8 weeks of that epic pattern that showed up on the models earlier and not just 2-3 weeks.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

why are people fretting over this? i really don’t get it? the TPV is elongated over SE Canada, there’s a ton of cold air displaced, and there’s a strong west based -NAO

cutter pattern? absolutely not

Well, I'm fretting because I have bare ground after about 33 miles of favorable H5 images, but need to remember that the payoff is often delayed with these NAO patterns. They are often very frustrating on the front end. I have been saying this and it's part of the reason, in addition to the RNA, why my outlook was relatively conservative in December compared to many others. 

[Hoth]

30 minutes ago, George001 said:

It’s frustrating that we are still tracking a pattern and not an actual storm. We had a massive -nao and nothing to show for it, what kind of bullshit is this? The teleconnections looked great for a big snow on Friday and now it’s a strung out piece of shit. Sorry for the negativity it’s just the past few winters have been bad so it’s frustrating to see the same shit over and over again. Lows aren’t supposed to ram into a block!

Last winter was bad? Didn’t you get blasted by a historic blizzard? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

us weiners appreciate the explanations that the mets are giving in this thread. 

NOT speaking for myself, but part of the problem might be the excitement since around Tgiving about this beautiful pattern, and how that beautiful pattern hasn't really produced. then you have 40/70 (not slamming him, at all) saying he is expecting a relaxation in the pattern in January, and you get panic, since there are only 3 weeks left for this supposedly beautiful pattern. throw in the Negative Nancies like Tblizz and there you go. Tobin bridge, here they come.

I have a big thaw, yes, but I also have all hell breaking loose in January....very chaotic month with a great deal of flux.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

Last winter was bad? Didn’t you get blasted by a historic blizzard? 

I mean..LOL. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I’m moving to H5 next week. I’ll send everyone pics of the virtual snow.

[MJOatleast7]

10 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

 Who will run these camps? I nominate Will and Scooter?

Uyghurs gonna Uyghur...

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, George001 said:

 

Yeah, we need the mid Jan relaxation to disappear or be delayed to mid Feb for the epic winter that it looked like we were headed for in late November to verify. To be fair, that’s very possible and the EPS weeklies show about a 6 week favorable period. There’s going to be lulls, but the question is always when we get a favorable pattern how long will it last? Most years we do get a favorable pattern at some point (there are exceptions). How good the winter ends up being often depends on how long that favorable pattern lasts. Last year it only lasted 3 weeks (granted those 3 weeks were REALLY good), and the rest of the winter sucked. Hopefully we get 6-8 weeks of that epic pattern that showed up on the models earlier and not just 2-3 weeks.

First of all, you don't need 2 consecutive months of a great pattern to have an "epic" season...one or two signature events does the track. No one should have expected epic snowfall totals this season. That is your problem, not the folks distributing data.

 

[George001]

26 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Last winter was bad? Didn’t you get blasted by a historic blizzard? 

Ok the blizzard bumps last winter out of bad territory, but the previous 3 winters were bad and even last winter was really just a 3 week period in Jan, then shut off the next 8 weeks. Maybe my expectations are too high, but I was thinking we would get multiple blizzards this year looking at the pattern late November. Like 2010-2011 or 2014-2015.

[mahk_webstah]

55 minutes ago, George001 said:

It’s frustrating that we are still tracking a pattern and not an actual storm. We had a massive -nao and nothing to show for it, what kind of bullshit is this? The teleconnections looked great for a big snow on Friday and now it’s a strung out piece of shit. Sorry for the negativity it’s just the past few winters have been bad so it’s frustrating to see the same shit over and over again. Lows aren’t supposed to ram into a block!

If I expected a severe blizzard every time someone farted in the davis straits I'd be frustrated too..

[SnoSki14]

A +PNA is still more important than the NAO/AO because it allows cold air to funnel eastward particularly in December. 

With a -PNA you can get the Euro op

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

A +PNA is still more important than the NAO/AO because it allows cold air to funnel eastward particularly in December. 

With a -PNA you can get the Euro op

I actually think the EPS members mostly show a +PNA which is another reason I more or less tossed the Euro Op idea...the idea itself may be possible but probably in a transitory way...no way would the trof set up shop like that even with a neutral EPO and PNA

[Hoth]

5 minutes ago, George001 said:

Ok the blizzard bumps last winter out of bad territory, but the previous 3 winters were bad and even last winter was really just a 3 week period in Jan, then shut off the next 8 weeks. Maybe my expectations are too high, but I was thinking we would get multiple blizzards this year looking at the pattern late November. Like 2010-2011 or 2014-2015.

George, you could probably get the same pattern as ‘14-‘15 a hundred times and not get an outcome that good again. That was a freak occurrence. Just be glad you got to live through it. 

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

It’s frustrating that we are still tracking a pattern and not an actual storm.

Haven’t we been tracking a storm for a week now? Sure maybe it hasn’t broken  the right way but we have been tracking an event all week.

[George001]

12 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Haven’t we been tracking a storm for a week now? Sure maybe it hasn’t broken  the right way but we have been tracking an event all week.

A lot of this subforum is still in the game, but I dipped once I saw the west to east winds on the models. Back to tracking the pattern for me unfortunately.

[Chris12WX]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

It’s frustrating that we are still tracking a pattern and not an actual storm. We had a massive -nao and nothing to show for it, what kind of bullshit is this? The teleconnections looked great for a big snow on Friday and now it’s a strung out piece of shit. Sorry for the negativity it’s just the past few winters have been bad so it’s frustrating to see the same shit over and over again. Lows aren’t supposed to ram into a block!

We had a storm on Sunday and another one coming Friday. Guess we didn’t/aren’t tracking those.

[ORH_wxman]

24 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

A +PNA is still more important than the NAO/AO because it allows cold air to funnel eastward particularly in December. 

With a -PNA you can get the Euro op

Many of our best Decembers had a solidly negative PNA (2007, 2008, 1970, 1975, etc)