December 2022 Obs/Disc

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I’ve been watching this threat closely. From a smoother 500mb view it looks nice. However when I look at all 3 ensembles at the surface the average track is through the great lakes. I’ll show some maps later on my break. 

Do we really care what the sfc low means are at 220 hours? I mean, 5-6 days ago, this friday's system was cutting into Ottawa and sending parakeets to Caribou....but the hemispheric pattern always said watch out for further SE solutions because when you have Baffin and Hudson Bay blocks, they usually do that.

 

Plus, the GEFS looks like buckshot to me....lows in LAke Huron and lows over George's Bank.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Do we really care what the sfc low means are at 220 hours? I mean, 5-6 days ago, this friday's system was cutting into Ottawa and sending parakeets to Caribou....but the hemispheric pattern always said watch out for further SE solutions because when you have Baffin and Hudson Bay blocks, they usually do that.

 

Plus, the GEFS looks like buckshot to me....lows in LAke Huron and lows over George's Bank.

When the surface depiction makes sense yes.. Cold dumps into west first then bleeds east? Can we get a redevelopment to our SE bc of the block? For now I'll follow seasonal trends.. Hope I'm 100% wrong and that it changes.. 

 

 

[FPizz]

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don't see this at all....it could cut if western trough digs and we lose confluence, but how do we get "storm will cut by a good amount" from that ensemble mean look? Here's the GEFS. Still waiting for EPS to come out far enough, but I doubt it looks super different.

 

 

[NorEastermass128]

H5 looks great!

[Go Kart Mozart]

We're getting a hot tub installed for Christmas.  I guess we'll have to keep it unplugged and make it a cooling tub:

[CoastalWx]

What you need to watch are the key ridges below. That ridge folding over north of Canada and the west based -NAO are pinning that PV lobe into western Canada. The key is to maintain the ridge off the Pacific coast...closer to NAMR. That will prevent what the euro op did. 

However, there is a risk there should that ridge be more offshore.

 

 

[CoastalWx]

But, the flow is chaotic...like Will said, recall Friday was cutting to MSP last week. Just understand what the risks are.

 

Personally, I welcome the cold dump into the CONUS and rid us of this stale airmass we have had. 

[qg_omega]

16 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

When the surface depiction makes sense yes.. Cold dumps into west first then bleeds east? Can we get a redevelopment to our SE bc of the block? For now I'll follow seasonal trends.. Hope I'm 100% wrong and that it changes.. 

 

 

its still a cutter pattern on the EPS

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What you need to watch are the key ridges below. That ridge folding over north of Canada and the west based -NAO are pinning that PV lobe into western Canada. The key is to maintain the ridge off the Pacific coast...closer to NAMR. That will prevent what the euro op did. 

However, there is a risk there should that ridge be more offshore.

 

 

You also still have a large Baffin/Davis Strait Block there trying to pin part of the PV lobe under it.

[qg_omega]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

But, the flow is chaotic...like Will said, recall Friday was cutting to MSP last week. Just understand what the risks are.

 

Personally, I welcome the cold dump into the CONUS and rid us of this stale airmass we have had. 

its just a repeat of the cold dump into the west, thats not moving east in time.  Montana is on track for a record cold DJF

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

You also still have a large Baffin/Davis Strait Block there trying to pin part of the PV lobe under it.

Yep, that will be part of what happens. 

[CoastalWx]

Here are the clusters (think groups of solutions or clusters with similar ensemble members). Notice 41% have a pretty nice SWFE or redeveloper look. 33% have a mix to rain(cutterish?) look. The other 25% have a coastal look.

 

[CoastalWx]

Now lets look at H5 preceding hr 240. This is hr 210.

So that Baffin Bay block helps in the first and last images. You can see the confluence there. However look at the middle image. The ridging out west is farther offshore. That causes a fuji dance type thing where the PV(or a piece of it anyways) in the middle image actually loops around back to the west in Saskatchewan and helps swing that trough around and into the GL region. Thus giving a cutter look. 

Anyways the point isn't to obsess that far out...just showing the chaotic flow. 

[RI Rob]

To drive from Boston to Trenton on Thursday and back to Boston on Friday... Tough decisions.. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Now lets look at H5 preceding hr 240. This is hr 210.

So that Baffin Bay block helps in the first and last images. You can see the confluence there. However look at the middle image. The ridging out west is farther offshore. That causes a fuji dance type thing where the PV(or a piece of it anyways) in the middle image actually loops around back to the west in Saskatchewan and helps swing that trough around and into the GL region. Thus giving a cutter look. 

Anyways the point isn't to obsess that far out...just showing the chaotic flow. 

Great visuals thanks.. Took a closer look at EPS 4 of 51 members are favorable for snow for the Pre-Christmas threat.  Lets just get the pacific ridge east.. Definitely plenty of time 9-11 days out .. I think this could be a rather important storm.. 

[CoastalWx]

I know Tblizz wants to shoot me when I say this, but I do like what I see overall going forward after Friday. Every good pattern has inherent risks. Cutters, whiffs....whatever. That's just how weather works. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

EPO goes neutral pretty quick on EPS after this weekend, while GEFS keep it negative.. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Here are the clusters (think groups of solutions or clusters with similar ensemble members). Notice 41% have a pretty nice SWFE of redeveloper look. 33% have a mix to rain(cutterish?) look. The other 25% have a coastal look.

 

Is the second one the mai-tai look with police below Area bridges And children crying as PF dangles from the quad lift 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I know Tblizz wants to shoot me when I say this, but I do like what I see overall going forward after Friday. Every good pattern has inherent risks. Cutters, whiffs....whatever. That's just how weather works. 

Lol…. I’m kind of numb to dog shit December’s at this point. Been twelve years since the last white Christmas, what’s 1 more? Lucky 13

[brooklynwx99]

why are people fretting over this? i really don’t get it? the TPV is elongated over SE Canada, there’s a ton of cold air displaced, and there’s a strong west based -NAO

cutter pattern? absolutely not

[SouthCoastMA]

9 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Lol…. I’m kind of numb to dog shit December’s at this point. Been twelve years since the last white Christmas, what’s 1 more? Lucky 13

Like I said to DIT last week..anything before Christmas is gravy down here. Then he violently shook me in disagreement. 

[NorEastermass128]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

why are people fretting over this? i really don’t get it? the TPV is elongated over SE Canada, there’s a ton of cold air displaced, and there’s a strong west based -NAO

I know. Because they don’t see snow in their yard and/or snow in the immediate forecast. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

why are people fretting over this? i really don’t get it? the TPV is elongated over SE Canada, there’s a ton of cold air displaced, and there’s a strong west based -NAO

cutter pattern? absolutely not

We don't live at 500.... 4 of 51 EPS members have it cutting..  May it be a SWFE? possible, Miller B? possible, coastal? possible, but it can also cut and rain on us if the cold gets dumped too far west.. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

I know. Because they don’t see snow in their yard and/or snow in the immediate forecast. 

Plenty white here now, just being real.  Cutter will be a real risk in this pattern. 

[rmo09001]

28 minutes ago, RI Rob said:

To drive from Boston to Trenton on Thursday and back to Boston on Friday... Tough decisions.. 

How about driving from San Diego to CT beginning early Wednesday. I'll be making the home stretch from St. Louis beginning around 4a on Friday. Watching this threat like a hawk to figure out what the hell my contingency plan is going to be, lol. My hope is for this threat to lag to the 24th. 

[ORH_wxman]

Is there a pattern where cutters aren't a risk? They can happen in any pattern. I've seen them happen with a monster PNA ridge sitting over Idaho.

A baffin/davis strait block does not strike me as a pattern where cutters are disproportionately represented. They can still happen though. But I'd give the nod to SWFE/redevelopers/Miller Bs when you have that type of Atlantic look with a mean trough over the central CONUS.

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

We don't live at 500.... 4 of 51 EPS members have it cutting..  May it be a SWFE? possible, Miller B? possible, coastal? possible, but it can also cut and rain on us if the cold gets dumped too far west.. 

you said in your post above that 4 of 51 look favorable. Now it’s 4 of 51 have cutters?  Do you mean 4 look ok, and 4 do not currently? 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Is there a pattern where cutters aren't a risk? They can happen in any pattern. I've seen them happen with a monster PNA ridge sitting over Idaho.

A baffin/davis strait block does not strike me as a pattern where cutters are disproportionately represented. They can still happen though. But I'd give the nod to SWFE/redevelopers/Miller Bs when you have that type of Atlantic look with a mean trough over the central CONUS.

Thank you for providing some sound reasoning. Hard to decipher sometime what is really being shown. 

[brooklynwx99]

i really don’t mean to argue… but this is a cutter pattern. a -PNA/+NAO/+EPO and a WAR with the mean track through the Plains

this is what we’re going to be seeing, for the most part. they are almost polar opposites

i don’t get the pessimism. it’s December 12th and people are seeing ghosts. sure, we could get a cutter, but the upcoming pattern certainly favors coastal systems and cold SWFEs much more than most

[SouthCoastMA]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Is there a pattern where cutters aren't a risk? They can happen in any pattern. I've seen them happen with a monster PNA ridge sitting over Idaho.

A baffin/davis strait block does not strike me as a pattern where cutters are disproportionately represented. They can still happen though. But I'd give the nod to SWFE/redevelopers/Miller Bs when you have that type of Atlantic look with a mean trough over the central CONUS.

The Day 8+ OP runs sure do trigger some emotional knee-jerk reactions. We've had far worse patterns in December. Of course every post like this needs the disclaimer that a decent pattern does not guarantee snow, but it must get tedious.