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December 2022 Obs/Disc


40/70 Benchmark
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6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I am watching what Scott mentioned to make sure that Rockies trough hours 190-230 doesn’t start burying itself SW . The gfs had led the way last time in picking up the lower heights in the SW by Nevada or so and the ridge orientation can send troughs sliding south so that is what I’m watching for to maintain the look that is good . In case we needed a reminder that isn’t a negative post it’s objective given that it doesn’t take much to see that subtle shift . Alternatively  like it it was a “bad” look that needed a little help I would point out any little shift that could help us .  You can see the west coast ridge make a bit of headway into the Cali / Nevada /Idaho region (day 7-8) and then a piece of energy slides down Rockies around day 9-10 and I’m watching that particularly to see if that buckles the ridge back west 

I think that is less of a threat this time around because the PAC is changing.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think that is less of a threat this time around because the PAC is changing.

That would be good and to be clear I don’t mean bury the energy to the Catalina islands like 10 days ago just a bit of a more SW protrusion into  Nevada / Az . It doesn’t appear like the SE ridge is much of an issue at all and I don’t know and was just wondering if that’s bc the current modeled Rockies trough is flattish or something else entirely 

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12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Big storm signal near Christmas on the models 

I would characterize the 12 Z GGEM solution as a uniquely ‘exotic bomb’

gotta love the GGEM imagination model. Lol. 

That’s a rare yard-stick storm from DC to Maine 

So there’s definitely a bright signal between the 20th and 24th, but it’s so far off that it’s very difficult to determine how it will express itself.
 

For example… a mode change into a positive PNA doesn’t necessarily translate to the same kind of N/A as it would during an El Nino. I mentioned that because … we happen to be in a very well coupled La Niña base state  so in deference to that, we have to consider the variance. I could see this all evolving more midwest and being a cutter unfortunately.  

Plenty of time… I mean like the present storm shouldn’t be going this close to Logan Airport anyway by climate inference and it’s probably going to do that so well hell

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23 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The OP gfs is comical. Finds a way to not snow in SNE through almost the new year.

 

With a huge cutter that tracks across NNE right before the holiday too boot 

Euro is even better. Massive SE ridge as cold dumps west

This is what blocking buys you according to Euro op

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12 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The OP gfs is comical. Finds a way to not snow in SNE through almost the new year.

 

With a huge cutter that tracks across NNE right before the holiday too boot 

If I make it to xmas with bare ground, I am going to end up in prison for strangling the next SOB who posts a day 10 -NAO chart.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I mean yeah op run, but that's funny. EPO no right there.

We’d be in the 60s easily Christmas Eve, at least it wouldn’t be be a grinch storm for southern and eastern SNE. No snow to melt.  All 3 ensemble suites as of now agree that storm will cut by a good amount. We may have to wait til after Christmas for a real chance if that holds. 

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4 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

That would be good and to be clear I don’t mean bury the energy to the Catalina islands like 10 days ago just a bit of a more SW protrusion into  Nevada / Az . It doesn’t appear like the SE ridge is much of an issue at all and I don’t know and was just wondering if that’s bc the current modeled Rockies trough is flattish or something else entirely 

Euro op is basically what I was talking about and what I believe Scott mentioned as a risk to the good LR pattern actually happening 

the Rockies trough moving west and then it also deepened which boosted SE ridge . It hasn’t happened and 12z eps isn’t out but it is a risk at day 8.5 +  . It’s not some slam dunk look with lots of wiggle room in either side 

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3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

We’d be in the 60s easily Christmas Eve, at least it wouldn’t be be a grinch storm for southern and eastern SNE. No snow to melt.  All 3 ensemble suites as of now agree that storm will cut by a good amount. We may have to wait til after Christmas for a real chance if that holds. 

I don't see this at all....it could cut if western trough digs and we lose confluence, but how do we get "storm will cut by a good amount" from that ensemble mean look? Here's the GEFS. Still waiting for EPS to come out far enough, but I doubt it looks super different.

image.png.40885843081c656053308ade7db75ec9.png

 

 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don't see this at all....it could cut if western trough digs and we lose confluence, but how do we get "storm will cut by a good amount" from that ensemble mean look? Here's the GEFS. Still waiting for EPS to come out far enough, but I doubt it looks super different.

image.png.40885843081c656053308ade7db75ec9.png

 

 

I’ve been watching this threat closely. From a smoother 500mb view it looks nice. However when I look at all 3 ensembles at the surface the average track is through the great lakes. I’ll show some maps later on my break. 

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26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If I make it to xmas with bare ground, I am going to end up in prison for strangling the next SOB who posts a day 10 -NAO chart.

LOL.

Yea, that was cool like thanksgiving week. Now it’s just getting nauseating as we continue to roll snake eyes.

” Hey! Look at this crazy pattern that’s 10 days away while you bail out your basement from the latest flooding cutter.

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4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Euro op is basically what I was talking about and what I believe Scott mentioned as a risk to the good LR pattern actually happening 

the Rockies trough moving west and then it also deepened which boosted SE ridge . It hasn’t happened and 12z eps isn’t out but it is a risk at day 8.5 +  . It’s not some slam dunk look with lots of wiggle room in either side 

These patterns always have an inherent cutter risk....we just need to keep that EPO ridge closer to NAMR coast to prevent any of these wave breaking ridge fold overs like the euro op.

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