40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2022 Author Share Posted December 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I am watching what Scott mentioned to make sure that Rockies trough hours 190-230 doesn’t start burying itself SW . The gfs had led the way last time in picking up the lower heights in the SW by Nevada or so and the ridge orientation can send troughs sliding south so that is what I’m watching for to maintain the look that is good . In case we needed a reminder that isn’t a negative post it’s objective given that it doesn’t take much to see that subtle shift . Alternatively like it it was a “bad” look that needed a little help I would point out any little shift that could help us . You can see the west coast ridge make a bit of headway into the Cali / Nevada /Idaho region (day 7-8) and then a piece of energy slides down Rockies around day 9-10 and I’m watching that particularly to see if that buckles the ridge back west I think that is less of a threat this time around because the PAC is changing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think that is less of a threat this time around because the PAC is changing. That would be good and to be clear I don’t mean bury the energy to the Catalina islands like 10 days ago just a bit of a more SW protrusion into Nevada / Az . It doesn’t appear like the SE ridge is much of an issue at all and I don’t know and was just wondering if that’s bc the current modeled Rockies trough is flattish or something else entirely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Big storm signal near Christmas on the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Big storm signal near Christmas on the models Grinch storm on the GFS. Mild and rainy. Still time though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Big storm signal near Christmas on the models I would characterize the 12 Z GGEM solution as a uniquely ‘exotic bomb’ gotta love the GGEM imagination model. Lol. That’s a rare yard-stick storm from DC to Maine So there’s definitely a bright signal between the 20th and 24th, but it’s so far off that it’s very difficult to determine how it will express itself. For example… a mode change into a positive PNA doesn’t necessarily translate to the same kind of N/A as it would during an El Nino. I mentioned that because … we happen to be in a very well coupled La Niña base state so in deference to that, we have to consider the variance. I could see this all evolving more midwest and being a cutter unfortunately. Plenty of time… I mean like the present storm shouldn’t be going this close to Logan Airport anyway by climate inference and it’s probably going to do that so well hell 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Screw snow give me more today's. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Hey 15 yrs ago! I was getting ready to embark on a 9 hr endeavor lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 The OP gfs is comical. Finds a way to not snow in SNE through almost the new year. With a huge cutter that tracks across NNE right before the holiday too boot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 23 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: The OP gfs is comical. Finds a way to not snow in SNE through almost the new year. With a huge cutter that tracks across NNE right before the holiday too boot Euro is even better. Massive SE ridge as cold dumps west This is what blocking buys you according to Euro op 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2022 Author Share Posted December 13, 2022 12 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: The OP gfs is comical. Finds a way to not snow in SNE through almost the new year. With a huge cutter that tracks across NNE right before the holiday too boot If I make it to xmas with bare ground, I am going to end up in prison for strangling the next SOB who posts a day 10 -NAO chart. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Hope nobody is believing OP runs though…10 plus days out…oh the horror. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 At least SEA and PDX will have a white Christmas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If I make it to xmas with bare ground, I am going to end up in prison for strangling the next SOB who posts a day 10 -NAO chart. You could get in a lot of trouble for strangling a police officer. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: At least SEA and PDX will have a white Christmas. Maybe even down to LA. That's historic cold out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2022 Author Share Posted December 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Hope nobody is believing OP runs though…10 plus days out…oh the horror. 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: At least SEA and PDX will have a white Christmas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2022 Author Share Posted December 13, 2022 Lord, I wish la nina would fu&* off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: You could get in a lot of trouble for strangling a police officer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 I mean yeah op run, but that's funny. EPO no right there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If I make it to xmas with bare ground, I am going to end up in prison for strangling the next SOB who posts a day 10 -NAO chart. Methuenites have to help out fellow Methuenites!!...Merry Christmas!!...on sale at amazon 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I mean yeah op run, but that's funny. EPO no right there. We’d be in the 60s easily Christmas Eve, at least it wouldn’t be be a grinch storm for southern and eastern SNE. No snow to melt. All 3 ensemble suites as of now agree that storm will cut by a good amount. We may have to wait til after Christmas for a real chance if that holds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 It’s not like some here haven’t warned about this pattern since November with the block pushing the PV to western Canada 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If I make it to xmas with bare ground, I am going to end up in prison for strangling the next SOB who posts a day 10 -NAO chart. I’ll join you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Just now, qg_omega said: It’s not like some here haven’t warned about this pattern since November with the block pushing the PV to western Canada I mean that track does make sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Those cold anomalies are off the charts in the western half. Part of me would like to see the Euro play out. That's historic cold for a lot of places out west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 4 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: That would be good and to be clear I don’t mean bury the energy to the Catalina islands like 10 days ago just a bit of a more SW protrusion into Nevada / Az . It doesn’t appear like the SE ridge is much of an issue at all and I don’t know and was just wondering if that’s bc the current modeled Rockies trough is flattish or something else entirely Euro op is basically what I was talking about and what I believe Scott mentioned as a risk to the good LR pattern actually happening the Rockies trough moving west and then it also deepened which boosted SE ridge . It hasn’t happened and 12z eps isn’t out but it is a risk at day 8.5 + . It’s not some slam dunk look with lots of wiggle room in either side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: We’d be in the 60s easily Christmas Eve, at least it wouldn’t be be a grinch storm for southern and eastern SNE. No snow to melt. All 3 ensemble suites as of now agree that storm will cut by a good amount. We may have to wait til after Christmas for a real chance if that holds. I don't see this at all....it could cut if western trough digs and we lose confluence, but how do we get "storm will cut by a good amount" from that ensemble mean look? Here's the GEFS. Still waiting for EPS to come out far enough, but I doubt it looks super different. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 All I know is we’re guaranteed something epic. Whether it’s storms or melts TBD. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I don't see this at all....it could cut if western trough digs and we lose confluence, but how do we get "storm will cut by a good amount" from that ensemble mean look? Here's the GEFS. Still waiting for EPS to come out far enough, but I doubt it looks super different. I’ve been watching this threat closely. From a smoother 500mb view it looks nice. However when I look at all 3 ensembles at the surface the average track is through the great lakes. I’ll show some maps later on my break. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If I make it to xmas with bare ground, I am going to end up in prison for strangling the next SOB who posts a day 10 -NAO chart. LOL. Yea, that was cool like thanksgiving week. Now it’s just getting nauseating as we continue to roll snake eyes. ” Hey! Look at this crazy pattern that’s 10 days away while you bail out your basement from the latest flooding cutter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Euro op is basically what I was talking about and what I believe Scott mentioned as a risk to the good LR pattern actually happening the Rockies trough moving west and then it also deepened which boosted SE ridge . It hasn’t happened and 12z eps isn’t out but it is a risk at day 8.5 + . It’s not some slam dunk look with lots of wiggle room in either side These patterns always have an inherent cutter risk....we just need to keep that EPO ridge closer to NAMR coast to prevent any of these wave breaking ridge fold overs like the euro op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now