weathafella Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: More are going to join me after Friday. A ton of rooms on reserve for the period 12/20-26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Gah. Not what I was hoping for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2022 Author Share Posted December 12, 2022 Anyone east of the ORH hills needs to prey for a break with respect to the system on or around 12/23ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 925 track looks slightly worse than 00z.....it is initially colder though, so if we can get this back east a little, I think there is enough antecedent airmass to hit the interior pretty hard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Blocking fail ? Repeat after me: Huggers and runners can happen during big -NAO blocks 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2022 Author Share Posted December 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: A ton of rooms on reserve for the period 12/20-26. I thought December would get off to a slow start, but end up with a few SWFEs...what I didn't realize is not much snow would precede the SWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2022 Author Share Posted December 12, 2022 Quick, someone post a H5 chart from 12/27...I need to restore some semblance of faith in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 925 tracked from about Danbury , to KFIT to Portland Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 No bueno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: 925 tracked from about Danbury , to KFIT to Portland Maine Blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: 925 tracked from about Danbury , to KFIT to Portland Maine And 00z tracked from like LI to PYM....I think if we got that track to come back, it would be enough for interior. When I look at the 102h panel for today, it's colder than 00z 114h panel despite being like 75-100 mi northwest. That's the tick colder I was talking about, but it's obviously hard to compare since we cannot hold the track constant from run to run....but that is evidence in itself that we got a bit colder on that panel in the early stages of the storm despite the track being worse. So I'll be looking for small ticks back SE for interior folks....coastal peeps will need a lot more help though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, weathafella said: Meanwhile in a preemptive move, American Rubber has temporarily rented a warehouse just inside the city limits of Methuen, MA. The warehouse is uniquely constructed with rooms and AR is outfitting each of them for the period 12/15-1/10. Hopefully AR will be paying for referrals!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2022 Author Share Posted December 12, 2022 Such a disappointing evolution. Holy shit, do I need an el nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Such a disappointing evolution. Holy shit, do I need an el nino. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2022 Author Share Posted December 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: And 00z tracked from like LI to PYM....I think if we got that track to come back, it would be enough for interior. When I look at the 102h panel for today, it's colder than 00z 114h panel despite being like 75-100 mi northwest. That's the tick colder I was talking about, but it's obviously hard to compare since we cannot hold the track constant from run to run....but that is evidence in itself that we got a bit colder on that panel in the early stages of the storm despite the track being worse. So I'll be looking for small ticks back SE for interior folks....coastal peeps will need a lot more help though. I think these nuances are that can save the ORH hills and even the lower terrain WOR. Agreed. I don't think it will be enough here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 I was half kidding witg nothing through Christmas, but that’s becoming more likely by the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2022 Author Share Posted December 12, 2022 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: All 3 of these la ninas have had the same underlying traits/have and have nots...tenor has been like dead-nuts same with some different indecies etc.. Rinse and repeat....if your locale isn't in the meteorologocial "click", then you just get the train run on you for 3 years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2022 Author Share Posted December 12, 2022 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I was half kidding witg nothing through Christmas, but that’s becoming more likely by the day One more shot before Xmas, 1 more before NY...then at that point, the thaw is on the horizon. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I was half kidding witg nothing through Christmas, but that’s becoming more likely by the day You did just get 2” thou and it also snowed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 15 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: 925 tracked from about Danbury , to KFIT to Portland Maine That would bring a mix right up through central Vermont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: All 3 of these la ninas have had the same underlying traits/have and have nots...tenor has been like dead-nuts same with some different indecies etc.. Rinse and repeat....if your locale isn't in the meteorologocial "click", then you just get the train run on you for 3 years. I agree. I wasn’t a fan of a third but you guys talked me out of a disgruntled state in the pre season. How close are you to closing the winter outlook and opening the baseball one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I agree. I wasn’t a fan of a third but you guys talked me out of a disgruntled state in the pre season. How close are you to closing the winter outlook and opening the baseball one? Kind of hard to punt the season when the N PAC starts looking like El Nino with steroidal blocking in the Arctic ocean out in the extended range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: That would bring a mix right up through central Vermont. Seemed like it reached N Berks but not mitch bodies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Such a disappointing evolution. Holy shit, do I need an el nino. This pattern + Nino would bring an infinitely better result. I'm done with the Ninas...kill them with fire. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2022 Author Share Posted December 12, 2022 7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I agree. I wasn’t a fan of a third but you guys talked me out of a disgruntled state in the pre season. How close are you to closing the winter outlook and opening the baseball one? I'm not out on the season....just supremely frustrated after how this season has started following the last several years of misfortune. On paper, this pattern/season is still fine....but @Ginx snewx was asking me why my seasonal snowfall numbers were not closer to 2010-2011, despite the pattern being similar. This month is a perfect testament to just how special those seasons are. It takes more than just a pattern, but one complemented by exceptional luck. All of that said, just for context....Dec 2010 was very similar and then took off right after Xmas. This can still do that. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2022 Author Share Posted December 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Kind of hard to punt the season when the N PAC starts looking like El Nino with steroidal blocking in the Arctic ocean out in the extended range. Agree. I am not in any way doing that....just need to melt after a squash southwest, then rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 29 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Blocking fail ? Next! NAO flipping positive right when we need it most. The block will be fleeting and escaping east as storm makes closest approach. Looks like a cutter. I’m expecting 45-50F and rain in SE NH. Connecticut river west, gonna want to watch for sig snow chances. wave spacing awful. AN airmass in cold source region. did I say next? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Kind of hard to punt the season when the N PAC starts looking like El Nino with steroidal blocking in the Arctic ocean out in the extended range. We’re just concerned for Ray. It’s early and already he’s living on the emotional edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 The almighty with a timely visit lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: The almighty with a timely visit lol The storm has officially received a Papal Blessing.....that might be the jolt it needed. 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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