December 2022 Obs/Disc

[Torch Tiger]

Yeah GGEM did come N/W a bit and a hair stronger at sfc.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

50-75 miles east and a lot of people would be happy

I had mentioned this earlier, I don't think its outside the realm of possibility, Lot of time left for this one.

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Not going to lie, that sim radar of a firehose has me channeling my inner Tippy with it flashing over to pounding silver dollars.  Hard to get that QPF with 850s below 0C and see rain, though I'm sure onshore flow has something to do with it.

Yeah when the ML track does what the GFS did, you're flipping a chunk of that yellow echoes over to parachutes at 33F. I've also been noticing the antecedent airmass at 925mb has been very slowly cooling as we get closer which makes sense because it's a pretty good airmass that gets advected in right before the storm....model guidance often erodes it too quickly...esp over the interior.

[HoarfrostHubb]

NAVGEM went east!  We are saved by the Navy! (still not great)

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Yea. That’s real close to parachuting weenies for the 84 corridor.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

We need a miracle here. Not even close 

[EastonSN+]

Oh Canada.

[Hoth]

20 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

That 925 track is usually Decent for 495 belt isn’t it?? . Hair S  of block island Over to Chatham / islands . The airmass blows balls A bit 

What do we think about the thermals correcting cooler as we get closer in? That’s a decent high. Not a terrible track. Wouldn’t surprise me if we see temps tick down. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

The ML track has improved to something pretty favorable on GFS , like to see the euro show that 

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

We need a miracle here. Not even close 

Flip the Hallmark channel on, I'm sure a Christmas miracle will be on at least a dozen times.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Hoth said:

What do we think about the thermals correcting cooler as we get closer in? That’s a decent high. Not a terrible track. Wouldn’t surprise me if we see temps tick down. 

This is my thinking right now. I don't expect massive wholesale changes, but it's really about 1C of cooling that makes a huge difference and it happens pretty often when you have a ML track southeast of us.....now if the MLs trend back NW, then you can throw that out the window, but assuming a track to the southeast over like the cape or something, I expect MLs and down to the BL 925 range to keep ticking a bit cooler. We even saw this in the Dec 5, 2020 storm with an absolutely putrid airmass....it was so putrid that lower elevations couldn't overcome it, but even they got 1-2" of slop when it looked like all rain 2 days before the event. Higher terrain did get warning snows.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

What do we think about the thermals correcting cooler as we get closer in? That’s a decent high. Not a terrible track. Wouldn’t surprise me if we see temps tick down. 

Usually as we get closer, It will get colder if there is a decent airmass available in most cases.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is my thinking right now. I don't expect massive wholesale changes, but it's really about 1C of cooling that makes a huge difference and it happens pretty often when you have a ML track southeast of us.....now if the MLs trend back NW, then you can throw that out the window, but assuming a track to the southeast over like the cape or something, I expect MLs and down to the BL 925 range to keep ticking a bit cooler. We even saw this in the Dec 5, 2020 storm with an absolutely putrid airmass....it was so putrid that lower elevations couldn't overcome it, but even they got 1-2" of slop when it looked like all rain 2 days before the event. Higher terrain did get warning snows.

I was thinking of that event. Almost reminds me a little of that.

[Hoth]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is my thinking right now. I don't expect massive wholesale changes, but it's really about 1C of cooling that makes a huge difference and it happens pretty often when you have a ML track southeast of us.....now if the MLs trend back NW, then you can throw that out the window, but assuming a track to the southeast over like the cape or something, I expect MLs and down to the BL 925 range to keep ticking a bit cooler. We even saw this in the Dec 5, 2020 storm with an absolutely putrid airmass....it was so putrid that lower elevations couldn't overcome it, but even they got 1-2" of slop when it looked like all rain 2 days before the event. Higher terrain did get warning snows.

Thanks, Will. I appreciate your thoughts. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Are we starting the see the beginnings of the trend back to a Dec 92 type deal.. Luke that 12z Saturday Euro is volition had 

[TheMainer]

2 hours ago, dryslot said:

It has been tickling east on the ensemble guidance as more members are starting to remain offshore into the GOM, Its still very close but foothills into the mountains and North are going to get pounded, Need to build a pack up there so that's what i want to see, Riding is limited down this way the last few years so i've had to venture NW which is fine by me.

 

28 minutes ago, dryslot said:

There's going to be some big totals for areas that stay all snow with the duration of this one.

I was going to go to Mont Valin riding Friday through Sunday but decided to wait this storm out and see since if we can get 8+ inches we can at least get the club sleds out to pack and trim blow downs, tired of looking at green grass while you guys at least got a little snow last night, haha

[Typhoon Tip]

25 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Yeah GGEM did come N/W a bit and a hair stronger at sfc.

This is not true actually it was incrementally east between 96 and 84 hours comparing those frames to the 0Z run … Circumstance that was also true while the system is making its direct impact   

But it doesn’t matter… it’s the same as the 00z. The 500 mbar evolution was also slightly southeast around the southern and southeastern aspect of the isohypses layout, just enough yet  

 I realize you’re hoping for the opposite to be true but I’m just using your post to point that out. 
 

Overall the guidance at 12 Z is continuing along the expectation laid out earlier that this is probably the beginning of the end of the western press and at the runs going forward will probably start to respond to the scenario with the NAO block exertion … specifically being that it’s a western limb structure being important in this, too

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, TheMainer said:

 

I was going to go to Mont Valin riding Friday through Sunday but decided to wait this storm out and see since if we can get 8+ inches we can at least get the club sleds out to pack and trim blow downs, tired of looking at green grass while you guys at least got a little snow last night, haha

Basically got the ground white, That's about it but up your way and west of there looks awful.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Are we starting the see the beginnings of the trend back to a Dec 92 type deal.. Luke that 12z Saturday Euro is volition had 

I’d say east before I would say ‘92?

I suppose it could happen… But from right now and only having 4 1/2 days it the entire Vortx structure’s not likely going to evolve under our latitude like it did in 1992.

However we can eject enough shortwave mechanics out underneath the NAO block that would likely slow down… quasI closes off.  It’d do a winter fun that way

[dryslot]

The 12z Ukie wasn't very helpful.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The 12z Ukie wasn't very helpful.

Up the CT river to Lebanon 

[40/70 Benchmark]

December 1992 is gone.

Everything is awful but the GFS, which is still awful...though closest to not awful.

[ORH_wxman]

Ukie did come east and significantly colder in the 925-850 range....but 00z was pretty zonked up so it would have been surprising if it didnt.

[CoastalWx]

GEFS seemed to continue what 12z GFS did, 

[CoastalWx]

34 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

We need a miracle here. Not even close 

Just take it like a man.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

GEFS seemed to continue what 12z GFS did, 

Yeah I was just looking....def more eastward members and fewer members over interior SNE now. Hopefully that is a sign of a real trend and not just model noise.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I was just looking....def more eastward members and fewer members over interior SNE now. Hopefully that is a sign of a real trend and not just model noise.

It’s not model noise. 

Too many parametrics are leaning the other way and that’s all it’s doing is just responding to those as we get closer if those were not the case and they weren’t leaning so to speak… then it probably would be model noise

[dryslot]

Clearly there is still a bit of spread on the 12z GEFS but its east of 06z like Will said with more members tracking offshore.

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I was just looking....def more eastward members and fewer members over interior SNE now. Hopefully that is a sign of a real trend and not just model noise.

2-2 since 6z. Cooking with gas.. or at least matches 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

2-2 since 6z. Cooking with gas.. or at least matches 

Lol…

that high pressure north of Maine is real, and so is the -NAO.  It’s going to exert its presence imo. Will it be enough for everyone? I think at the moment, if you’re WOR and off the immediate coast, you’re in the game at least. Let’s see how the rest of 12z goes.