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December 2022 Obs/Disc


40/70 Benchmark
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I get it...there is a block, its still 4 days out, blah, blah...plenty of time. But I just had a feeling all along that if this was going to work out for my area, then things would have looked better than this at day 4. My gut is that I have a bad feeling we are settling in on a solution and its one that is going to pork my general area.....again, albeit in a different manner than this past one did.

That primary started to hang on longer with 00z Sunday suite and we've just been chasing our tail ever since....not good at this range.

Again, this is with respect to my area....I get that those out west are still very much in play.

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Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

At least on the front end.  Maybe more if track works more in your favor

It has been tickling east on the ensemble guidance as more members are starting to remain offshore into the GOM, Its still very close but foothills into the mountains and North are going to get pounded, Need to build a pack up there so that's what i want to see, Riding is limited down this way the last few years so i've had to venture NW which is fine by me.

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30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Longitude will help with this. With deep erly flow that's usually what happens. But the GFS is giving you all that snow with temps like 34-35. The clown maps gonna clown.

sitting at under 200 ft, in a small valley we may have issues accumulating in that situation. West and elevated maybe the key to this one...Unless of course we have a good shift east over the next couple of days.

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7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I get it...there is a block, its still 4 days out, blah, blah...plenty of time. But I just had a feeling all along that if this was going to work out for my area, then things would have looked better than this at day 4. My gut is that I have a bad feeling we are settling in on a solution and its one that is going to pork my general area.....again, albeit in a different manner than this past one did.

That primary started to hang on longer with 00z Sunday suite and we've just been chasing our tail ever since....not good at this range.

Again, this is with respect to my area....I get that those out west are still very much in play.

For the general audience… We really can’t consider this a D4 event because of its slow movement and likely profile differential that occurs over the course of the event - it’s more likely the ballast of it As far as what it means to the user ship in here…is late on D4 into 5.

I’m just discussing the timetables there entirely.  

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

This storm would be torching Quebec City to 55F and rain if it weren't for the block.

I would like to see the SLP track another 50-75 mi east or so to veer the wind more NNE then ENE off the warm waters off the coast, That is where the coast and coastal plain could benefit as surface temps are going to be marginal as it stands right now.

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

For the general audience… We really can’t consider this a D4 event because of its slow movement and likely profile differential that occurs over the course of the event - it’s more likely the ballast of it As far as what it means to the user ship in here…is late on D4 into 5.

I’m just discussing the timetables there entirely.  

Yea, day 4-5....doesn't change anything in my mind.

From my vantage point, the inherent "potential" of this pattern belies the fact that it looks pretty damn tenuous for my area right out through Xmas at this particular point in time.

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… I feel pretty strongly that we are seeing some E corrections now and going forward, not withstanding how subtle or gross…, for the philosophy and concepts that I discussed yesterday regarding this being ‘pressed against the western solution wall’ considering the physical/larger synoptic manifold

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

… I feel pretty strongly that we are seeing some E corrections now and going forward, not withstanding how subtle or gross…, for the philosophy and concepts that I discussed yesterday regarding this being ‘pressed against the western solution wall’ considering the physical/larger synoptic manifold

Yea, I would still feel okay in western NE.

Agree.

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

… I feel pretty strongly that we are seeing some E corrections now and going forward, not withstanding how subtle or gross…, for the philosophy and concepts that I discussed yesterday regarding this being ‘pressed against the western solution wall’ considering the physical/larger synoptic manifold

It can only get so far west with the blocking and we may have already maxed out that solution so now these east ticks are starting to show up and hopefully continue.

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I have a question on the block .. I never look at the  indexes But the nao is actually rising to neutral for this event .. I understand  the domain is very wide ..but with that NAO rising on index Wednesday-Saturday is the correction vector not effected and we just have a sorta pseudo -NAO for this system that will act like a strong block will or the block was in place long enough regardless of rising next few days 

971C69D4-43B9-4EC0-BD2A-A41BFAF28DEE.png

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I've said this before, but with each passing day I feel more like I just need to mouthwash this interminable and insufferable cool ENSO episode the fu&* out of the hemisphere before my luck will change. Just something in the DNA/footprint of this particular ENSO episode that just despises winer in NE MA/SE NH.

Fu*&* it.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, day 4-5....doesn't change anything in my mind.

From my vantage point, the inherent "potential" of this pattern belies the fact that it looks pretty damn tenuous for my area right out through Xmas at this particular point in time.

It should change aspects in your mind because it’s going to try turn colder over the course of the system; and I don’t mean trend in the models. I mean the system itself is going to differentiate towards a colder profile …moving slow enough that’s going to change things in the aft aspects of the event. 
FWIW I mean  

I am speaking in specifically from my perspective on this; we’ll see how it goes.  In fact if the models trend east and clobber the interior I would not be shocked at all. Well relatively clobbered ha ha ha I mean it could just be like 10 inches of 9 to 1 ratio blue bomb which by the way December’s good climo fit month.  Just sayn. 

Folks are in a negative mood and it may be harder to think open minded.  From where I’m sitting this thing has a colder lean written all over it.  it’s just a matter whether it happens or not to me.  See …my kind of crazy is that I care more about the storm in space and time rather whether it rains or snows. it helps lol.  I won’t lie, I’d like it to snow. Yup. I think the event and everything else has been a marvelous success here which doesn’t mean anything to winter enthusiast if it doesn’t snow.  I get it

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Personal observations analyzing R2R models. Comparing knowing the individual bias of each.
ML's are torch city ATT. Parent Low doesn't transfer the energy in time to get the Coastal cranking.
 #1 Rule on Miller B's (circa 2010) Somebody is always going to get screwed.
 #2 As long as it's not a Miller Lite
Discussed Ad nauseum.
 Miller A vs Miller B - New England - American Weather (americanwx.com)

 

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It should change aspects in your mind because it’s going to try turn colder over the course of the system; and I don’t mean trend in the models. I mean the system itself is going to differentiate towards a colder profile …moving slow enough that’s going to change things in the aft aspects of the event. 
FWIW I mean  

I am speaking in specifically from my perspective on this; we’ll see how it goes.  In fact if the models trend east and clobber the interior I would not be shocked at all. Well relatively clobbered ha ha ha I mean it could just be like 10 inches of 9 to 1 ratio blue bomb which by the way December’s good climo fit month.  Just sayn. 

Folks are in a negative mood and it may be harder to think open minded.  From where I’m sitting this thing has a colder lean written all over it.  it’s just a matter whether it happens or not to me.  See …my kind of crazy is that I care more about the storm in space and time rather whether it rains or snows. it helps lol.  I won’t lie, I’d like it to snow. Yup. I think the event and everything else has been a marvelous success here which doesn’t mean anything to winter enthusiast if it doesn’t snow.  I get it

You are right about that. Last night was nice, despite coming up as a local min yet again.....but the 1" cover is tenous and its Monday AM...leg day at the GYM, too....so agree with respect to the mood aspect.

Like I said, I see the argument for colder and will see how things look tomorrow.

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12 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I have a question on the block .. I never look at the  indexes But the nao is actually rising to neutral for this event .. I understand  the domain is very wide ..but with that NAO rising on index Wednesday-Saturday is the correction vector not effected and we just have a sorta pseudo -NAO for this system that will act like a strong block will or the block was in place long enough regardless of rising next few days 

971C69D4-43B9-4EC0-BD2A-A41BFAF28DEE.png

I’m glad you’re spending the time to look at the numerical NAO coverage first of all… More should adopt that habit. 

My take:  it’s actually the time right after that which is kind of hinted in that curve…

The spatial version demos that during that time range, it actually begins to manifest a new transient blocking node in the lower D straight area over ne Quebec and so forth… that’s a critical behavior. -the domain space is rather large. Yeah.  But that’s precisely what’s going on The entire spatial area partially masks the significance of that block because it may only be numerically equivalent to that small depth that you see out there between day five and six and seven on that graph.  However, that’s an important factor in where the cyclone goes once it’s knocking on the door of our latitude. 

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24 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I mean it can’t keep torching xmas time close to as often as it seems to have lately . I would take the over on Xmas winter conditions because the bar has been set so low due to recent Xmas torches 

I am still in disbelief that @TauntonBlizzard2013 has not had a white Christmas in 12 years!?!

I would think he should be averaging one every four years? 

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