December 2022 Obs/Disc

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Unless we see some changes, I see nothing exciting through Christmas for most of SNE, especially east. 
 

More than likely year 13 in a row without a white Christmas here 

Lol … yes most guidance have some cittters but we have 2 more chances after Friday for snow. Next mid next week then just before Christmas. I’m 100% sure all 3 storms aren’t locked in on tracks and results and upper air pattern will be increasingly more favorable as we approach Christmas and after with plenty of cold over or near us. 

[Typhoon Tip]

haven't seen any posts since about pg 157 ...

I would pay attention to the d(model) between 00z and 06z wrt the GFS.  

I don't believe that is a non-significant and/or mere nuanced storm placement and thermal profile modulation ...i.e., 'noise' between solutions?  no -

06z is a marginal atmosphere at a 4.5 to 6D lead, in a -NAO...  with and antecedent polar high in no hurry to leave the 60w/50n ~  feed source... and the 850 mb isotherm, as was depicted...gets to about HFD- ASH before collapse. All of which never really had a very good climate inferential purpose for going so far W over recent runs to begin with?

-  If one doesn't get what a 'correction vector' is, and in this case ...which way it points, I dunno what to tell you man. If that whole thing is machine emerged hallucination to begin with it ...okay, but, excluding that possibility ( sarcasm intended...), I don't think that 00z  to 06z changes were noise.  They fit the above baser metrical layout and the theoretical, and experiential/historical, forcing arguments.

Not to be early sold... the 00z to 06z GEF mean also bodily shifted east some 100 naut miles.  

The 00z Euro also looked colder and more compressed SE with the thermal profile...despite attempting a similar cyclone track as previous ... I find that as suspect telling.  There was a modest east jog in the EPS mean from 00z comparing the 12z.

These matter for this overall circumstance, more so (imho) than the average case, due to these colder arguments leaning on this thing the way they do.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Latest BOX AFD about Friday

Friday through Sunday... We look to remain dry through about 00Z Friday, but ensemble and deterministic guidance is gaining clarity in a coastal low-Miller B type system developing off the New Jersey coast late Thursday; moving northward into our area for Friday and the early part of Saturday. There has been a lot of buzz regarding the uncertainty in the forecast for this event, but of the 50 member ECWMF ensemble suite, only ONE member presents a solution with the low tracking across the "blockbuster noreaster" benchmark southeast of Nantucket. There is actually considerable agreement, and run to run consistency, that this low will track near the NJ coast, over Long Island, and up the CT River Valley; indicative of a rain event except across the high terrain of NW MA and western CT. Of course, with this forecast being several days out, shifts are expected in the forecast, but this track is supported by several synoptic conditions including the surface high pressure being located to far north and east, and mid level ridging in the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe ahead of the low.

 

There will be a considerable amount of moisture associated with this system, with over 1" of QPF forecast for the 24 hour period 00Z Fri to 00 Sat. While we expect mostly rain across the coastal plain, localities that are able to tap into enough cold air to see snow may see plowable amounts, with both GEFS and ECWMF ensemble probabilities on the board for 3-6"+ of snow across the Berkshires. At this time, it appears the most considerable snow accumulations will be across northern New England, which is good news for winter sports enthusiasts!

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Sure, but for a lot of eastern SNE. We need a lot of work for multiple threads 

Well that’s why I said it’s an interior look. That won’t change until after Friday. Seems like one or two more chances until Christmas at something. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro def looked a bit better for snow lovers in SNE. It still needs another couple ticks but you could see aloft how the H5 trough was trying to elongate W-E….if you can do that, it prevents the storm from cutting overhead and shunts it a bit more east. 
 

EPS mean had this rightward shift too. Instead of right over NYC it’s now tracking it over E LI. We will need a little more trending outside of the Berkshires in SNE, though. But still 5 days out. 

There really is not much of a difference at all from 12z at the surface....6" line goes from like Dendrite to maybe KCON.

Nothing jumps out at me aloft...we need more than that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well that’s why I said it’s an interior look. That won’t change until after Friday. Seems like one or two more chances until Christmas at something. 

I'm just about ready to punt the 16th.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Hopefully the block exerts more of an influence. I'll do a First Call on that one tomorrow, but I think my preview map from Friday is the ceiling on that one.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm just about ready to punt the 16th.

I already did but it may work for Berks/Hubbdave etc. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I already did but it may work for Berks/Hubbdave etc. 

In that case, let me grab Tiny Tim and rejoice

I just feel like anyone on the CP is getting to the point where its like a cat running around in a circle trying to catch its tail......just obsessing over minute trends that may or may not be noise, but in the end really won't alter the forecast much in YBY.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

In that case, let me grab Tiny Tim and rejoice

Maybe it tucks more to the east and you can get a courtesy reach around.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Maybe it tucks more to the east and you can get a courtesy reach around.

Yea, those always work out.

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There really is not much of a difference at all from 12z at the surface....6" line goes from like Dendrite to maybe KCON.

Nothing jumps out at me aloft...we need more than that.

I'm honestly not looking at snow maps really right now. Just looking for trends aloft in the midlevels. We saw a move SE. We need a bit more...esp east of ORH lower down, but there's 4-5 days to do it. If you get midlevels tracking more over the Cape, then it's going to be mostly snow over interior.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I'm honestly not looking at snow maps really right now. Just looking for trends aloft in the midlevels. We saw a move SE. We need a bit more...esp east of ORH lower down, but there's 4-5 days to do it. If you get midlevels tracking more over the Cape, then it's going to be mostly snow over interior.

I only look for a quick assessment of trends...that's it. I also look aloft, of course.

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, those always work out.

Maybe you can get a Norlun to save your family

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm honestly not looking at snow maps really right now. Just looking for trends aloft in the midlevels. We saw a move SE. We need a bit more...esp east of ORH lower down, but there's 4-5 days to do it. If you get midlevels tracking more over the Cape, then it's going to be mostly snow over interior.

6z OP GFS and GEFS were a significant move east 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

6z OP GFS and GEFS were a significant move east 

Yerah they did move east some...I'd like to see another move though before determining whether it was just wobbling/noise or a real trend. It's a potent block up near Hudson Bay so at least there's some synoptic support for a move SE.

[Snowcrazed71]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Maybe it tucks more to the east and you can get a courtesy reach around.

Kev likes those reach arounds. So let's hope for his sake that is the case ;-)

[mahk_webstah]

Not an optimistic take from GYX, but it’s not Ekster , so I am not sold.

ts during this period that precipitation chances will be
greatest. Current guidance suggests the low center should track
close to the coast, although ensemble members have more
solutions further into the GoME vs. inland over New England,
particularly the EPS. While the proximity to the coast could
still play a role in precip type, my current thoughts are that
is won`t play as big a role considering the extreme negative tilt
with the overlying system. Warm, moist air will be more
conducive to running inland from the Atlantic at this angle.
This means temps nearing 40 will be possible for the interior
and coast, with cooler temps supporting periods of snow mixing
in further across the foothills and mountains. That said, the
upper jet, by now across the southern CONUS, will have lots of
momentum with it that should keep the warmest temps advecting
across the Atlantic vs. wrapping up into New England...leaving
the newly formed low to pivot across northern New England and
southern Quebec/New Brunswick for remainder of the weekend.

Of greater confidence is another period of gusty winds with the greatest
precip rates Fri evening lifting north through Saturday. Plenty
of time to decide on precip type after a rather complex system
departs our region midweek.

 

[Spanks45]

6z GFS gives Southbury a 20" early Christmas gift here for Friday, I am sure that is going to happen. One thing I have noticed is the cold seems to be locking in a bit more west of the river, despite the low position. May have something to do with the airmass out ahead? Still 4 days to go, guess it could always end up riding the Hudson with that time frame left...

[Ginx snewx]

29 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hopefully the block exerts more of an influence. I'll do a First Call on that one tomorrow, but I think my preview map from Friday is the ceiling on that one.

One or two Messenger shifts and it's on. Hmm I got real interested this morning. Don't rush your call. 

[CoastalWx]

27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, those always work out.

A flip to snow as mid levels are under you? Of course that can happen. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

The trend on the GFS was more encouraging than the one on the EURO IMO.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

A flip to snow as mid levels are under you? Of course that can happen. 

Christmas is saved

[CoastalWx]

28 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

6z GFS gives Southbury a 20" early Christmas gift here for Friday, I am sure that is going to happen. One thing I have noticed is the cold seems to be locking in a bit more west of the river, despite the low position. May have something to do with the airmass out ahead? Still 4 days to go, guess it could always end up riding the Hudson with that time frame left...

Longitude will help with this. With deep erly flow that's usually what happens. But the GFS is giving you all that snow with temps like 34-35. The clown maps gonna clown.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Christmas is saved

If you loop the GFS, you'll see what I mean. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The trend on the GFS was more encouraging than the one on the EURO IMO.

 

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

If you loop the GFS, you'll see what I mean. 

 

[WinterWolf]

19 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

6z GFS gives Southbury a 20" early Christmas gift here for Friday, I am sure that is going to happen. One thing I have noticed is the cold seems to be locking in a bit more west of the river, despite the low position. May have something to do with the airmass out ahead? Still 4 days to go, guess it could always end up riding the Hudson with that time frame left...

Ya…I don’t think the Hudson runners are happening…I think we are on the correction vector, and it’s south and east. West looks best for sure with regard to Friday, but we have quite a bit of time.
 

If this looked stellar today/Monday, I’d be a lil uneasy too with the time remaining.  Block is formidable..let’s see how strong and influential it, and the 50/50 can be here in this situation. Still a bunch of time left for this to trend.  
 

One more decent tick and it’s a solid event for WOR folks…way out east it will take a lil more, but it’s still not out of the question 4-5 days out. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

[Spanks45]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya…I don’t think the Hudson runners are happening…I think we are on the correction vector, and it’s south and east. West looks best for sure with regard to Friday, but we have quite a bit of time.
 

If this looked stellar today/Monday, I’d be a lil uneasy too with the time remaining.  Block is formidable..let’s see how strong and influential it, and the 50/50 can be here in this situation. Still a bunch of time left for this to trend.  
 

One more decent tick and it’s a solid event for WOR folks…way out east it will take a lil more, but it’s still not out of the question 4-5 days out. 

Not sure WOR folks have a had a great system since I moved up here...EOR crew has cleaned house since 2015 it seems. I love to share snow, but we are due?!....

[dryslot]

The block may actually help up here this time otherwise then that this would end up over PF's head.