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December 2022 Obs/Disc


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Euro def looked a bit better for snow lovers in SNE. It still needs another couple ticks but you could see aloft how the H5 trough was trying to elongate W-E….if you can do that, it prevents the storm from cutting overhead and shunts it a bit more east. 
 

EPS mean had this rightward shift too. Instead of right over NYC it’s now tracking it over E LI. We will need a little more trending outside of the Berkshires in SNE, though. But still 5 days out. 

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5 hours ago, CT Rain said:

There's been a lot of great research into Atmospheric Rivers by a lot of talented meteorologists. Not sure what the issue with the term is?

I took it as meaning how the media started using the term Polar Vortex a few years back.... like it was something new, and all about climate change. 

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18 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

If the 0z gfs is anywhere close to correct, SNE closes the shades so to speak.  Perhaps even leave the hobby for good

Is that what you would do?

Not happening man. Even if it turned to shit for the rest of this month.... I can tell you that us hardcore winter junkies aren't going anywhere. 

 

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2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Why are we closing the shades ?

Just responding to torch tiger. He loves to stare the pot. 

With that said, from what I see, the models seem to be starting the east shift slightly. Again. That's a good sign. I'm sure things are going to change in the next couple of days. Nothing stays the same as far as track this far out ( Well it rarely does ). And with the way the pattern has been, I'm not surprised that will see back and forth with the models. It's not done trending.

 

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20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Have a feeling these major east trends we saw overnight are real 

We’ll see today. ORH to your hood really just needs one more tick and it’s prob a decent event. I think the really high end outcomes for SNE are probably out because we don’t have the block to the north linking up with the western ridge in Canada which helped shove the whole ULL under us…but if we elongate the ULL and force the midlevels more over the cape, then interior SNE can have a solid event, even if it taints a bit. 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We’ll see today. ORH to your hood really just needs one more tick and it’s prob a decent event. I think the really high end outcomes for SNE are probably out because we don’t have the block to the north linking up with the western ridge in Canada which helped shove the whole ULL under us…but if we elongate the ULL and force the midlevels more over the cape, then interior SNE can have a solid event, even if it taints a bit. 

A net gainer of 3-6”+ would be lovely . My longitude may help back here… 

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We’ll see today. ORH to your hood really just needs one more tick and it’s prob a decent event. I think the really high end outcomes for SNE are probably out because we don’t have the block to the north linking up with the western ridge in Canada which helped shove the whole ULL under us…but if we elongate the ULL and force the midlevels more over the cape, then interior SNE can have a solid event, even if it taints a bit. 

I’m not sure if we can trend it enough for an all snow event but I do think we have a good shot at a net gain whether that’s snow to mix/rain ending as snow or some semblance of that. I think the cutter up the HRV or CTRV idea has vanished 

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