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December 2022 Obs/Disc


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12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Shouldn't be hard with the block 

Agree, there’s no reason to kick the can with this look. There’s no way in hell the low cuts with this blocking in place, and there’s bo way in hell the low stays weak with a storm this powerful. Could I be wrong? Sure, but despite the bad trends im not going to give up on the potential for a slow moving Miller B like that Canadian run had a few days ago. It could easily trend back to that. Yeah there’s a threat xmas week, but there is a big threat this week as well.image.thumb.png.a035d1e1bd02580dcf68e87045ad5ae7.png 

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So in this era of supposed global warming - we now have "Atmospheric River Events".

We used to call them … wait for it … storms.

We get all this breathless reporting as if we never had weather before.  https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11525523/Atmospheric-river-event-crashes-California-West-coast-millions-brace-storms.html

I guess the media needs something new to replace the scary "polar vortex".

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2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

So in this era of supposed global warming - we now have "Atmospheric River Events".

We used to call them … wait for it … storms.

We get all this breathless reporting as if we never had weather before.  https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11525523/Atmospheric-river-event-crashes-California-West-coast-millions-brace-storms.html

I guess the media needs something new to replace the scary "polar vortex".

There's been a lot of great research into Atmospheric Rivers by a lot of talented meteorologists. Not sure what the issue with the term is?

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There was 6 straight days of precipitation on that 00z GFS run.  Several runs have shown the synoptic QPF plus the meso-scale QPF.  But that run was literally a week of snow.

The strong blocking regime can lead to some solid upslope precip events as upper level lows get stacked over the low level heights.  Cyclonic moisture and cold temps.

gfs-deterministic-vt-total_precip_inch-1732000.thumb.png.85436c9eb6a852ed85a07205ef8edb13.png

gfs-deterministic-vt-total_snow_10to1-1732000.thumb.png.1a430d2624129988b25c8127b07f5e8e.png

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It's going to be a lonnnggg week ahead.
The emotional Roller-coaster of despair to elation. The "storm" is exactly why it's the best group of Weeners out there and when this forum shines.
I'll state the obvious. Go ensembles, watch the trends AND avoid the pissin as-to-say from the OP's until Wednesday.
Let the freak flags fly. Read more from the METS, try to keep the IMBY bellyaching to a minimum.

It doesn't look bad for a crush-job.  

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46 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t know, it’s got work to do outside of the Berks. 

Yeah. We have time but I’m not really feeling it right now tbh. Step in the right direction tonight I suppose. 
 

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Santa needs 6 coats

6396b4dc3b8c7.png

I love me some big cold, but that’s totally useless if I wake up without snow cover. 

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4.2" new snow here. Just missed the heaviest stuff to my S and SW where 8-8.5" fell in parts of the Berkshires. Although there wasn't much wind, I think there was a little upslope assist in that area with the SW flow in the mid levels. A decent little event that serves as a nice appetizer for what could be a very high ceiling snow event here late in the week.

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30 minutes ago, wxmanmitch said:

4.2" new snow here. Just missed the heaviest stuff to my S and SW where 8-8.5" fell in parts of the Berkshires. Although there wasn't much wind, I think there was a little upslope assist in that area with the SW flow in the mid levels. A decent little event that serves as a nice appetizer for what could be a very high ceiling snow event here late in the week.

Yup. I'd say 8+ in Lenox.

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1 hour ago, 78Blizzard said:

So in this era of supposed global warming - we now have "Atmospheric River Events".

We used to call them … wait for it … storms.

We get all this breathless reporting as if we never had weather before.  https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11525523/Atmospheric-river-event-crashes-California-West-coast-millions-brace-storms.html

I guess the media needs something new to replace the scary "polar vortex".

Uhm, what? Come live in CA and you’ll understand. It’s not a gimmicky term. We have “storms” and we have storms that set up with atmospheric rivers. They can be mutually exclusive.

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