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December 2022 Obs/Disc


40/70 Benchmark
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You know honestly .. oy have to glaze some eyes to get this across. 

But I can see what's happening here with the GFS recent trending...   Probably a not in this direction from the other guidance, too.  The the GFS has converted the giant vortex look to more of a connected planetary L/W structure. 

If you center are 108 hours on this 12z run and go back a couple days worth... amid all that noise, you go from that large 'tumbler' idea, to now more of a L/W.  And in fact, that L/W on this variation is attempting to torpedo a S/W across the mid Atlantic...

This low at 12z and the "somewhat better appeal of recency" is really just a manifestation of the above evolution.  Below is 4 days ago, the GFS to now as of 12z, demonstrating that morphology. It matters...because the 12z this morning version would change the nature and evolution of cyclogen.   By committing more to the L/W variety, the storm is less likely to be drawn into a W position, because the wave structure remains more open...

image.png.6d0756bad792e9446d5a9a9344127eda.png

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38 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That's the dream on the 12z GFS.  They gave me the crayons.

gfs-deterministic-vt-total_snow_10to1-1310800.thumb.png.0f000dcab0c9a60b618a708fab2585e9.png

But ...why does your "art" have to be like one of those frescos of antiquity on the Roman chapel walls, the tragedy where Ray gets singled out for persecution by an unjust god though -

I find that interesting that you, unwittingly so... become an instrument of that lord's symbolism.   Fascinating

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It may not be the worse thing to happen for winter enthusiasts ... ( yes, everybody), should this thing evolvw more into a L/W as opposed to quasi closed 'tumbler' -

The reason is, it opens the door for a lot of possibilities.   The previous construct/evolution portended one bigger-ish event, then done. Pattern shuts down with some sort of 10 day "recharge" requirement.    But the L/W version offers renewing possibilities for impulses to be delivered into an ambient cold/baroclinically charged domain.    It also at a large hemispheric scale, move toward more of a +PNAP ( if rooted in +PNA), evolution.   

The -EPO joins the discussion here, folks.   I wonder if it is under the awareness radar for the forum, but that's a huge cold signal showing up over James Bay to Manitoba...  It's been there for a while in the runs. This 12z GFS is close to seeing up a mechanism to deliver this either in segments or en masse - "close" ...it's hinted there.  But the D7-11 elongates matters at mid levels. 

It's a fascinating attempt to evolve this in he guidance, but there are possibilities that it ends up favorable, even if Friday/Saturday ends up a progressive moderate event.

The VT 20+" is likely model magnification, "UNLESS" some changes do recommit to more being ejected with that lead S/W there. 

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You know honestly .. oy have to glaze some eyes to get this across. 

But I can see what's happening here with the GFS recent trending...   Probably a not in this direction from the other guidance, too.  The the GFS has converted the giant vortex look to more of a connected planetary L/W structure. 

If you center are 108 hours on this 12z run and go back a couple days worth... amid all that noise, you go from that large 'tumbler' idea, to now more of a L/W.  And in fact, that L/W on this variation is attempting to torpedo a S/W across the mid Atlantic...

This low at 12z and the "somewhat better appeal of recency" is really just a manifestation of the above evolution.  Below is 4 days ago, the GFS to now as of 12z, demonstrating that morphology. It matters...because the 12z this morning version would change the nature and evolution of cyclogen.   By committing more to the L/W variety, the storm is less likely to be drawn into a W position, because the wave structure remains more open...

image.png.6d0756bad792e9446d5a9a9344127eda.png

Yeah the squeeze is trying to happen there. We’re probably losing the super high end potential (like Dec ‘92) with the ULL remaining well to the west and further north…but that block is still trying to shunt things and I don’t expect guidance to be handling it properly yet. 
 

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9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

But ...why does you "art" have to be like one of those frescos of antiquity on the Roman chapel walls, where Ray get's singled out for persecution by a unjust god though -

I find that interesting that you, unwittingly so... become an instrument of that lord's symbolism.   Fascinating

Haha, I didn't even really pay attention as much there but does he live right where that little white dot of 0.0" is between the next week?

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11 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

James!!!

I have a working theory regarding James. While trying to hack NCEP from his basement, to gin up a blizzard for Harwich you understand, James accidentally stumbled upon a major conspiracy. The GFS mainframe was being diverted to mint bitcoin. Some conspirators discovered the intrusion and James had to be "erased" and put into witness protection. Soon after, the unassuming "George" made his first appearance in the world.  

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1 minute ago, Hoth said:

I have a working theory regarding James. While trying to hack NCEP from his basement, to gin up a blizzard for Harwich you understand, James accidentally stumbled upon a major conspiracy. The GFS mainframe was being diverted to mint bitcoin. Some conspirators discovered the intrusion and James had to be "erased" and put into witness protection. Soon after, the unassuming "George" made his first appearance in the world.  

He came out of the same pkg of weenies, Ant came out of that one too.

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