HoarfrostHubb Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 GFS looks a little better than the previous run... Still probably a mostly rain event for SNE on this model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 S VT and SNH get croaked. Close to an isothermal bomb in my hood 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 That’s a pounding up here, but not far from being a slopfest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: S VT and SNH get croaked. Close to an isothermal bomb in my hood That 925 track was Philly to PVD to Just East Fryeberg Maine . kind of ENE track S near LI then curls more NNE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 That's the dream on the 12z GFS. They gave me the crayons. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: That 925 track was Philly to ORH to Fryeberg Maine . Still a bit further east than the 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Okemo gets 18-24"...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Mt Snow with 3 feet? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Still a bit further east than the 06z Ya and it was really a bit more E ‘rly component to the NE movement toward PVD as it went under you then curled more NNE from NE mass to Sebego 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 That fronto banding in S VT is sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Look at the last several runs at h5… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Berkshire bomb. That’s a biggie for VT and NH 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Quite the cutoff in SNH There will be some toasters if that happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Quite the cutoff in SNH There will be some toasters if that happened Yup Ray and I saying "you want to jump first"? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Temps at 850 still a bit warm for my liking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 8 minutes ago, powderfreak said: That's the dream on the 12z GFS. They gave me the crayons. Over the next couple days… they’ll unfortunately slowly take the crayons away and hand them to the Tol-Orh-Meth crew. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 You know honestly .. oy have to glaze some eyes to get this across. But I can see what's happening here with the GFS recent trending... Probably a not in this direction from the other guidance, too. The the GFS has converted the giant vortex look to more of a connected planetary L/W structure. If you center are 108 hours on this 12z run and go back a couple days worth... amid all that noise, you go from that large 'tumbler' idea, to now more of a L/W. And in fact, that L/W on this variation is attempting to torpedo a S/W across the mid Atlantic... This low at 12z and the "somewhat better appeal of recency" is really just a manifestation of the above evolution. Below is 4 days ago, the GFS to now as of 12z, demonstrating that morphology. It matters...because the 12z this morning version would change the nature and evolution of cyclogen. By committing more to the L/W variety, the storm is less likely to be drawn into a W position, because the wave structure remains more open... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 38 minutes ago, powderfreak said: That's the dream on the 12z GFS. They gave me the crayons. But ...why does your "art" have to be like one of those frescos of antiquity on the Roman chapel walls, the tragedy where Ray gets singled out for persecution by an unjust god though - I find that interesting that you, unwittingly so... become an instrument of that lord's symbolism. Fascinating 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 PF getting wood with the SLP track over PWM on the 12z GFS. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Canadian is has wood too. It’s over Kevin Wood 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Plenty of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 It may not be the worse thing to happen for winter enthusiasts ... ( yes, everybody), should this thing evolvw more into a L/W as opposed to quasi closed 'tumbler' - The reason is, it opens the door for a lot of possibilities. The previous construct/evolution portended one bigger-ish event, then done. Pattern shuts down with some sort of 10 day "recharge" requirement. But the L/W version offers renewing possibilities for impulses to be delivered into an ambient cold/baroclinically charged domain. It also at a large hemispheric scale, move toward more of a +PNAP ( if rooted in +PNA), evolution. The -EPO joins the discussion here, folks. I wonder if it is under the awareness radar for the forum, but that's a huge cold signal showing up over James Bay to Manitoba... It's been there for a while in the runs. This 12z GFS is close to seeing up a mechanism to deliver this either in segments or en masse - "close" ...it's hinted there. But the D7-11 elongates matters at mid levels. It's a fascinating attempt to evolve this in he guidance, but there are possibilities that it ends up favorable, even if Friday/Saturday ends up a progressive moderate event. The VT 20+" is likely model magnification, "UNLESS" some changes do recommit to more being ejected with that lead S/W there. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: You know honestly .. oy have to glaze some eyes to get this across. But I can see what's happening here with the GFS recent trending... Probably a not in this direction from the other guidance, too. The the GFS has converted the giant vortex look to more of a connected planetary L/W structure. If you center are 108 hours on this 12z run and go back a couple days worth... amid all that noise, you go from that large 'tumbler' idea, to now more of a L/W. And in fact, that L/W on this variation is attempting to torpedo a S/W across the mid Atlantic... This low at 12z and the "somewhat better appeal of recency" is really just a manifestation of the above evolution. Below is 4 days ago, the GFS to now as of 12z, demonstrating that morphology. It matters...because the 12z this morning version would change the nature and evolution of cyclogen. By committing more to the L/W variety, the storm is less likely to be drawn into a W position, because the wave structure remains more open... Yeah the squeeze is trying to happen there. We’re probably losing the super high end potential (like Dec ‘92) with the ULL remaining well to the west and further north…but that block is still trying to shunt things and I don’t expect guidance to be handling it properly yet. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Over the next couple days… they’ll unfortunately slowly take the crayons away and hand them to the Tol-Orh-Meth crew. I broke every one of them after that 12z GFS run. Sorry guys. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: But ...why does you "art" have to be like one of those frescos of antiquity on the Roman chapel walls, where Ray get's singled out for persecution by a unjust god though - I find that interesting that you, unwittingly so... become an instrument of that lord's symbolism. Fascinating Haha, I didn't even really pay attention as much there but does he live right where that little white dot of 0.0" is between the next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 40 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Ah ha! .... the super detective, "NAVGEM" has foiled yet another crime of model perjury attempted by the ...everyone else, by exposing what's really going to happen with that trough nearing the end of this week... James!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Plenty of time to move that 0.0” pinpoint hole on the GFS a little east to center it over Methuen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Cmc and gfs look great after next weekend . Plenty of cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 11 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: James!!! I have a working theory regarding James. While trying to hack NCEP from his basement, to gin up a blizzard for Harwich you understand, James accidentally stumbled upon a major conspiracy. The GFS mainframe was being diverted to mint bitcoin. Some conspirators discovered the intrusion and James had to be "erased" and put into witness protection. Soon after, the unassuming "George" made his first appearance in the world. 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 1 minute ago, Hoth said: I have a working theory regarding James. While trying to hack NCEP from his basement, to gin up a blizzard for Harwich you understand, James accidentally stumbled upon a major conspiracy. The GFS mainframe was being diverted to mint bitcoin. Some conspirators discovered the intrusion and James had to be "erased" and put into witness protection. Soon after, the unassuming "George" made his first appearance in the world. He came out of the same pkg of weenies, Ant came out of that one too. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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