40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2022 Author Share Posted December 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Way too early The block is too strong for the primary to crash into it. I mean, it can happen due to other fluky nuances, but it's not the largest risk in my assessment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 1 hour ago, dryslot said: According to google maps, I'm outside that window............ Jeff, let me see what I could do about a carve out for you…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Uncle rain through Maine tonight…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: Uncle rain through Maine tonight…. All the colder air lifts out after Wednesday, and a sheared out system isn't going to bring it back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: All the colder air lifts out after Wednesday, and a sheared out system isn't going to bring it back. Yeah with average mid December air a sheared out junk system won’t do it. Heck it’s tough in the real heart of winter! But the guidance has gone back and forth on this so it isn’t settled by any means. H5 vort needs to go under us, not through southern Ontario. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 An occluded system will not get it done as it will flood the area with warmth, Were asking for a lot from this one this early on, Its a thread the needle type system so we need more things to go right and less to be wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2022 Author Share Posted December 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: An occluded system will not get it done as it will flood the area with warmth, Were asking for a lot from this one this early on, Its a thread the needle type system so we need more things to go right and less to be wrong. If its occluded junk, then sure....but the big runs are not occluded. It goes to town south of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Nao and epo are negative. Pna is too, but there has been an increase in western ridges on recent runs. It looks like the primary holding on longer was due to a random vort phasing in out west and then ramming into the block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If its occluded junk, then sure....but the big runs are not occluded. It goes to town south of LI. That analysis was based on the 0z GFS op run, All solutions are still on the table ATT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Looks good for us. Looks like it gets going a little later than last run, but is about to undergo rapid cyclogenesis as it moves ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Euro similar to UK and other guidance tonight bigger ridge in front, primary holds on much longer, rain to at least CNE... still tons of time for this to trend back... this could look vastly different come Tuesday once that 50/50 low feature sets up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Euro similar to UK and other guidance tonight bigger ridge in front, primary holds on much longer, rain to at least CNE... still tons of time for this to trend back... this could look vastly different come Tuesday once that 50/50 low feature sets up Huh? I thought the Euro looked better early on. There was more ridging out west, the runs with more ridging out west had a more consolidated ULL, farther north track and a stronger low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2022 Author Share Posted December 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Euro similar to UK and other guidance tonight bigger ridge in front, primary holds on much longer, rain to at least CNE... still tons of time for this to trend back... this could look vastly different come Tuesday once that 50/50 low feature sets up That would be lovely....text book NAO block, and I get a sheared system to my west, and a phased rainer that tackles the block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2022 Author Share Posted December 11, 2022 Just now, George001 said: Huh? I thought the Euro looked better early on. There was more ridging out west, the runs with more ridging out west had a more consolidated ULL, farther north track and a stronger low. Just stop posting on it, dude. He knows what he is speaks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 I think we have to get through tomorrow's storm before we can even look at this 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, George001 said: Huh? I thought the Euro looked better early on. There was more ridging out west, the runs with more ridging out west had a more consolidated ULL, farther north track and a stronger low. Go to bed 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: Go to bed Gotta see the EPS first 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Looking at the euro tonight vs 2 nights ago I see a big difference. The 2 big vorts are the atlantic vortex and the midwest one. Between the 2 a couple of nights ago squeezed a little block in eastern Canada enabling a blizzard to result. Today that happens too late. Plenty of time as wxniss and others note but there's no reason this solution is impossible and weenies should stop postulating bullshit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Might need to wait another week or so in most of New England but pattern looks decent. Congrats CT peeps tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: Looking at the euro tonight vs 2 nights ago I see a big difference. The 2 big vorts are the atlantic vortex and the midwest one. Between the 2 a couple of nights ago squeezed a little block in eastern Canada enabling a blizzard to result. Today that happens too late. Plenty of time as wxniss and others note but there's no reason this solution is impossible and weenies should stop postulating bullshit. Sure it’s possible but we would have to get very unlucky to get an inland runner with blocking this strong. But yeah my earlier post about the Euro looking better was wrong. I thought the better ridging out west would be good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2022 Author Share Posted December 11, 2022 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Looking at the euro tonight vs 2 nights ago I see a big difference. The 2 big vorts are the atlantic vortex and the midwest one. Between the 2 a couple of nights ago squeezed a little block in eastern Canada enabling a blizzard to result. Today that happens too late. Plenty of time as wxniss and others note but there's no reason this solution is impossible and weenies should stop postulating bullshit. No one ever said anything was impossible and you shouldn't fabricate bullshit, either. Lol It's been stated that it can still rain with the block, but it just takes weird shit...like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: No one ever said anything was impossible and you shouldn't fabricate bullshit, either. Lol It's been stated that it can still rain with the block, but it just takes weird shit...like that. It's not that weird. We say it's weird every year. One problem with this block is that most of the major NHEM cold was on the wrong side of the pole. That appears to change favorably for us now going forward but not in time for this system. I wasn't aiming my comment to you. I was aiming it toward people insisting something can't happen when it can and reasonably often does. Why do you say I'm fabricating bs? WTF is wrong with you? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2022 Author Share Posted December 11, 2022 9 minutes ago, weathafella said: It's not that weird. We say it's weird every year. One problem with this block is that most of the major NHEM cold was on the wrong side of the pole. That appears to change favorably for us now going forward but not in time for this system. I wasn't aiming my comment to you. I was aiming it toward people insisting something can't happen when it can and reasonably often does. Why do you say I'm fabricating bs? WTF is wrong with you? Who said it can't happen? This is what I mean.....obviously you aren't consciously fabricating anything; that was sarcasm. I said BS because that was your term. My point is that I just don't see people saying that. Everyone seems to get that although unlikely, anything is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Who said it can't happen? This is what I mean.....obviously you aren't consciously fabricating anything; that was sarcasm. BS was your term. But my point is that I just don't see people saying that. Everyone seems to get that although unlikely, anything is possible. We know that a couple(not you nor I) have stated it can't plow into the block. And they're right. But that doesn't mean the block can't slightly shift to send a system west of us or over us or otherwise not winter like for many or us. Anyway-it doesn't matter-point is from a learning perspective, this setup is a bit fraught. It may work out but whatever comes after this week should have higher odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2022 Author Share Posted December 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: We know that a couple(not you nor I) have stated it can't plow into the block. And they're right. But that doesn't mean the block can't slightly shift to send a system west of us or over us or otherwise not winter like for many or us. Anyway-it doesn't matter-point is from a learning perspective, this setup is a bit fraught. It may work out but whatever comes after this week should have higher odds. Yea, its semantics. I think everyone means the same thing. We'll see what happens....we should have one more shot before xmas if that system rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 EPS is ugly for late week. Still plenty of time. Gotta sleep.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Check out d11 on the EPS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: EURO wasn't as bad as I was expecting based on the comments. For my area some of that is forecaasted in the next 36 hours but NH border looks decent+ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2022 Author Share Posted December 11, 2022 1 minute ago, weathafella said: For my area some of that is forecaasted in the next 36 hours but NH border looks decent+ That was 12z....hadn't updated out that far yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2022 Author Share Posted December 11, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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