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December 2022 Obs/Disc


40/70 Benchmark
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2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

All the colder air lifts out after Wednesday, and a sheared out system isn't going to bring it back.

Yeah with average mid December air a sheared out junk system won’t do it.  Heck it’s tough in the real heart of winter!   But the guidance has gone back and forth on this so it isn’t settled by any means.  H5 vort needs to go under us, not through southern Ontario.

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5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

An occluded system will not get it done as it will flood the area with warmth, Were asking for a lot from this one this early on, Its a thread the needle type system so we need more things to go right and less to be wrong.

If its occluded junk, then sure....but the big runs are not occluded. It goes to town south of LI.

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2 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Euro similar to UK and other guidance tonight

bigger ridge in front, primary holds on much longer, rain to at least CNE...

still tons of time for this to trend back... this could look vastly different come Tuesday once that 50/50 low feature sets up

Huh? I thought the Euro looked better early on. There was more ridging out west, the runs with more ridging out west had a more consolidated ULL, farther north track and a stronger low.

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3 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Euro similar to UK and other guidance tonight

bigger ridge in front, primary holds on much longer, rain to at least CNE...

still tons of time for this to trend back... this could look vastly different come Tuesday once that 50/50 low feature sets up

That would be lovely....text book NAO block, and I get a sheared system to my west, and a phased rainer that tackles the block.

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Looking at the euro tonight vs 2 nights ago I see a big difference.  The 2 big vorts are the atlantic vortex and the midwest one.  Between the 2 a couple of nights ago squeezed a little block in eastern Canada enabling a blizzard to result.  Today that happens too late.  Plenty of time as wxniss and others note but there's no reason this solution is impossible and weenies should stop postulating bullshit.

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4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Looking at the euro tonight vs 2 nights ago I see a big difference.  The 2 big vorts are the atlantic vortex and the midwest one.  Between the 2 a couple of nights ago squeezed a little block in eastern Canada enabling a blizzard to result.  Today that happens too late.  Plenty of time as wxniss and others note but there's no reason this solution is impossible and weenies should stop postulating bullshit.

Sure it’s possible but we would have to get very unlucky to get an inland runner with blocking this strong. But yeah my earlier post about the Euro looking better was wrong. I thought the better ridging out west would be good for us.

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1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Looking at the euro tonight vs 2 nights ago I see a big difference.  The 2 big vorts are the atlantic vortex and the midwest one.  Between the 2 a couple of nights ago squeezed a little block in eastern Canada enabling a blizzard to result.  Today that happens too late.  Plenty of time as wxniss and others note but there's no reason this solution is impossible and weenies should stop postulating bullshit.

No one ever said anything was impossible and you shouldn't fabricate bullshit, either. Lol  It's been stated that it can still rain with the block, but it just takes weird shit...like that.

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11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No one ever said anything was impossible and you shouldn't fabricate bullshit, either. Lol  It's been stated that it can still rain with the block, but it just takes weird shit...like that.

It's not that weird.  We say it's weird every year.  One problem with this block is that most of the major NHEM cold was on the wrong side of the pole.  That appears to change favorably for us now going forward but not in time for this system.  I wasn't aiming my comment to you.  I was aiming it toward people insisting something can't happen when it can and reasonably often does.  Why do you say I'm fabricating bs?  WTF is wrong with you?  

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9 minutes ago, weathafella said:

It's not that weird.  We say it's weird every year.  One problem with this block is that most of the major NHEM cold was on the wrong side of the pole.  That appears to change favorably for us now going forward but not in time for this system.  I wasn't aiming my comment to you.  I was aiming it toward people insisting something can't happen when it can and reasonably often does.  Why do you say I'm fabricating bs?  WTF is wrong with you?  

Who said it can't happen? This is what I mean.....obviously you aren't consciously fabricating anything; that was sarcasm. I said BS because that was your term. My point is that I just don't see people saying that. Everyone seems to get that although unlikely, anything is possible. 

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Who said it can't happen? This is what I mean.....obviously you aren't consciously fabricating anything; that was sarcasm. BS was your term. But my point is that I just don't see people saying that. Everyone seems to get that although unlikely, anything is possible. 

We know that a couple(not you nor I) have stated it can't plow into the block.   And they're right.  But that doesn't mean the block can't slightly shift to send a system west of us or over us or otherwise not winter like for many or us. Anyway-it doesn't matter-point is from a learning perspective, this setup is a bit fraught.  It may work out but whatever comes after this week should have higher odds.

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3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

We know that a couple(not you nor I) have stated it can't plow into the block.   And they're right.  But that doesn't mean the block can't slightly shift to send a system west of us or over us or otherwise not winter like for many or us. Anyway-it doesn't matter-point is from a learning perspective, this setup is a bit fraught.  It may work out but whatever comes after this week should have higher odds.

Yea, its semantics. I think everyone means the same thing. 

We'll see what happens....we should have one more shot before xmas if that system rains.

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