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December 2022 Obs/Disc


40/70 Benchmark
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2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

That’d be the hope. Still plenty of time for movement in either direction. 

My money is on this getting shunted more to the ENE then running inland in this pattern, The question that i think needs to be answered is how far north it gets before that happens.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

A lot of these runs are going to evolve in such a manner that they will induce mass weenie suicides at certain points, but you must keep in mind how anomalous this block is. 

Going to need a few more days to get this to play out, Really don't want to get sucked in from run to run changes at this lead, Need to get this into a reasonable window on the OP models anyways, For now, Its just watch the trends on the Ensembles to get a feel on where this may be heading.

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GFS is holding the trough back west and spitting out a more minoring wave … yet another peregrination in this saga.  
 

ICON looked impressive aloft but it’s sfc handling is dubiously too warm.  It intrudes warm air under mid level heights crashing through 522DM and has it raining …. It’s unlikely to combine those particular metrics without severe thunderstorms and tornadoes -ICON of lunacy is what that is. 

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

GFS is holding the trough back west and spitting out a more minoring wave … yet another peregrination in this saga.  
 

ICON looked impressive aloft but it’s sfc handling is dubiously too warm.  It intrudes warm air under mid level heights crashing through 522DM and has it raining …. It’s unlikely to combine those particular metrics without severe thunderstorms and tornadoes -ICON of lunacy is what that is. 

GFS is just all over the map. 

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

GFS is holding the trough back west and spitting out a more minoring wave … yet another peregrination in this saga.  
 

ICON looked impressive aloft but it’s sfc handling is dubiously too warm.  It intrudes warm air under mid level heights crashing through 522DM and has it raining …. It’s unlikely to combine those particular metrics without severe thunderstorms and tornadoes -ICON of lunacy is what that is. 

Cmc warm

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10 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I was reading blog from a volcanologist. He said that the eruption at Tonga will and has created chaos in the atmosphere across the globe. So to me just makes things more exciting because we're not sure what's going to happen until it gets close to an event

Hello! Could you share a link to that?

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