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December 2022 Obs/Disc


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The block just makes cutters and runners less likely but they can still happen because of nuances in the flow and which piece of vorticity phase and which don’t….there’s a lot of variables. 
 

Right now we just know a storm is looking more and more likely and that’s about all we can say. It prob won’t be cutting into BUF or CLEbut huggers or inland runners are still a possibility. 

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38 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We need to have an intervention for weenies….repeat after me:

”You can have huggers and runners with a strong NAO block”

”You can have huggers and runners with a strong NAO block”

”You can have huggers and runners with a strong NAO block”

Sad but true.

Wasn't there a system last year that defied expectations given a powerful high?  Everyone was expecting the models to cave to something something off the coast--I think it ended up a runner with brief snow to heavy rain. 

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6 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Sad but true.

Wasn't there a system last year that defied expectations given a powerful high?  Everyone was expecting the models to cave to something something off the coast--I think it ended up a runner with brief snow to heavy rain. 

January 2022. Good pac with no blocking but somehow a low off obx phased and went into upstate ny 

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Latest CIPS analog guidance no surprise has Dec 1992 as the #1 analog

19921212_072_total.png.72d5e890f269e9994e21033d40db4059.png

NARR4pSYN1b_1992121112.png.aa91617247901141bbf62100c4c1ce15.png

It's interesting to note the slightly further west NAO blocking we have this time around compared to 1992 (sitting squarely over the Hudson Bay on the 12z GFS, compared to east of it). Will that make a difference? 

compday.CVQrSkKbrB.gif.362e6b6f62992a294d29e142e349d18e.gif

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I have purposely not looked at ANYTHING since late evening yesterday. Going to be fun to pop into the g2g. My hopes are up that my imby forecast improved. Only thing I did see was our Mets up totals a bit near me. I'm pretty much on 2/3" line. Looking forward to seeing everyone. Checking out now. Pics to come from the g2g. 

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1 minute ago, George001 said:

Euro isn’t out that far on tropical tidbits, how does it look? I saw on other boards that it is more of a hugger track so it starts as rain. However, the low gets very strong, down to 982 mb over around Philly.

The question now is is it had due north or does it head out under Long Island. If it heads out under Long Island then yes, I can see it's switching over to snow for us in Southern New England. . We have time to watch this

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5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

EURO is 12-24" over a good part of interior SNE destroys Kevin to Ray

 

Gets to CNJ then pushes back ESE and stalls at BM in the 970s while it crushed interior SNE... wow 

A little torchy down there to start until heights crash, but that would be major impacts either way.

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35 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

 

ecmwf-deterministic-east-vort500_z500-1256800.png

ecmwf-deterministic-neng-mslp-1256800.png

ecmwf-deterministic-neng-snow_72hr-1321600.png

ahh that's a p.o.s. useless storm...

actually know what?

For those making the comparison to 1992 - yeeeah... Will and I were mentioning that 'likeness' two or three days ago, just based upon behavior at mid levels.   I wrote about that in the scrolled thread that for some reason no one cares about - it's about this storm folks...  Anyway, what I was going say is, that storm was all rain in the guidance, for the 5 or so days leading the event. 

I've told the novella version of that experience before ...won't re-turn the phrases again for now... However, two days before that got under way, it was supposed to be rain.

...by the way, this is the 30-year anniversary ...Dec 10-12th...

-  I was sitting in History of American Lit ...wanting to jam an ice-pick in my ear canal ..., when the girl sitting next to me was waxing about the models to me, "...I don't know," she said, "this may not be all rain," with an air of ominous to her tone that only a fellow weather dweeb would detect.   I encouraged more out of her and she just was saying that the consensus in the weather lab was that it could flip to snow - "could flip to snow".  

Holy shit was that prescient!   They had to 'gut' instinct that call.  Honestly, I can't recall precisely what the forecast was for west of 495 (say...). I just remember during the 11th ... people around campus were talking about Worcester presently being igloo-ed under.... I know that was not predicted, either way. Not that.

This is the blue bomb time of year... Now, then again in March, with blurry end points.   But it's when you get these warm BL that get obliterated by WB and turbulent mixing , height falls ...etc, and then the leading marginal thermal profiles are suddenly -1C beneath the growth region, and then it's caking cotton balls. 

 

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9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

ahh that's a p.o.s. useless storm...

actually know what?

For those making the comparison to 1992 - yeeeah... Will and I were mentioning that 'likeness' two or three days ago, just based upon behavior at mid levels.   I wrote about that in the scrolled thread that for some reason no one cares about - it's about this storm folks...  Anyway, what I was going say is, that storm was all rain in the guidance, for the 5 or so days leading the event. 

I've told the novella version of that experience before ...won't re-turn the phrases again for now... However, two days before that got under way

...by the way, this is the 30-year anniversary ...Dec 10-12th...

-  I was sitting in History of American Lit ...wanting to jam an ice-pick in my ear canal ..., when the girl sitting next to me was waxing about the models to me, "...I don't know," she said, "this may not be all rain," with an air of ominous to her tone that only a fellow weather dweeb would detect.   I encouraged more out of her and she just was saying that the consensus in the weather lab was that it could flip to snow - "could flip to snow".  

Holy shit was that prescient!   They had to 'gut' instinct that call.  Honestly, I can recall precisely what the forecast was for west of 495 (say...). I just remember during the 11th ... people around campus were talking about the Worcester being igloo-ed under.... I know that was not predicted, either way. Not that.

This is the blue bomb time of year... Now, then again in March, with blurry end points.   But it's when you get these warm BL that get obliterated by WB and turbulent mixing , height falls ...etc, and then the leading marginal thermal profiles are suddenly -1C beneath the growth region, and then it's caking cotton balls. 

 

And then we all went to the PSC for $5 Miller Lite pitchers

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