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December 2022 Obs/Disc


40/70 Benchmark
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The GFS seems to be on board this run, with a storm coming up the coast. The path it has is north from North Carolina to southeast New York and then due east to about 150 miles east of Cape Cod. That ain't happening. So I just look at it as a storm off North Carolina and then off Cape Cod. At this point it is in that general area and that is a good thing, a real possibility for a decent Nor'easter. Exact track to be determined.

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah you don’t want a low tucked into NY bight for most of SNE. 
 

But there’s miles to go on this threat. It’s good that we’re seeing a significant event continuing to show up. 

The GGEM is doing what it is doing for a different set of reasons than the GFS.   Coincident results on this one guidance - just sayn'

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1 minute ago, lee59 said:

The GFS seems to be on board this run, with a storm coming up the coast. The path it has is north from North Carolina to southeast New York and then due east to about 150 miles east of Cape Cod. That ain't happening. So I just look at it as a storm off North Carolina and then off Cape Cod. At this point it is in that general area and that is a good thing, a real possibility for a decent Nor'easter. Exact track to be determined.

The low tracks over my fanny

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11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Has it ever happened in wx lore?

I only found this from ginxy

1734 tolland scrolls 2 entries

ye Block hath failed as rain sweeps thy tolland mount 

Towns folks sweat and thy knickers wet As counselmen weenie wood drunk At ye tavern for week  after Going thru town  warning of  “snow for days” again. Ye hate to see it 

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11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I love when we get a block and suddenly weenies think a low can’t tuck inland a bit anymore.

We need to have an intervention for weenies….repeat after me:

”You can have huggers and runners with a strong NAO block”

”You can have huggers and runners with a strong NAO block”

”You can have huggers and runners with a strong NAO block”

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Even if it does tuck a bit, if the low strengthens enough it will dynamically cool the column. There is a lot of energy around so I think the low will strengthen a lot (like 0z Canadian last night), which creates more room for error with regards to the track. If it deepens to the 970s or 960s the rain snow line could potentially crash right to or even east of the low. The epo is also raging negative so there should be plenty of cold air around.

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We need to have an intervention for weenies….repeat after me:

”You can have huggers and runners with a strong NAO block”

”You can have huggers and runners with a strong NAO block”

”You can have huggers and runners with a strong NAO block”

As a weenie, I see the block as Gandalf and he says “You shall not pass” to the low as it approaches a certain latitude. If Gandalf tells you “You shall not pass”, you LISTEN to him, because if you don’t he beats you over the head with his stick. The low is smart, it understands this so when Gandalf tells it “You shall not pass”, it dips. 

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As a weenie, I see the block as Gandalf and he says “You shall not pass” to the low as it approaches a certain latitude. If Gandalf tells you “You shall not pass”, you LISTEN to him, because if you don’t he beats you over the head with his stick. The low is smart, it understands this so when Gandalf tells it “You shall not pass”, it dips. 

No, you can’t just have one drink.


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