EastonSN+ Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That is a 1/7/96 gradient. Oh God what a great storm. Largest of my lifetime with 27 inches while in Norwalk CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Yeah... now that I'm having the chance to tip back a warm coffee and really see these ens mean 'giga' motions and comparing their deltas cross guidance ...blah blah... I'm still encouraged that there's thread-able/credible threat for the end of the week. The 00z EPS and 06z GEFs ( moving bodily en masse back toward the BM ...), as a 'super blend' would be a rank-able impact scenario, and barring comet impact ...probably is real. The operational souped-up version sometimes have a little too much jazz going on under the hood and can blow a gasket once in a while. We've seen it from the Euro, too. I recall the phantom blizzard from NY to southern NJ based on a Euro run with just 48 hours lead sending NCEP into a panic ... 1-3" of wind driven grits. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Still a couple pages back ... but if it's any worth, the overnight GEF mean was hugely improved ( for winter enthusiasts ) wrt to this system over the prior mean/spreads.... The prior wasn't as freakishly miserable as the operational 's rather abrupt deviation toward oblivion during those 3 runs... but it was mid way. Don't want to over emphasize here ...but, the 18z GEFs late yesterday afternoon was beginning to side with the operational run, with only a vague impression remaining... escaping seaward. Here is the 18z vs the ensuing 00z Almost smacks as though some bad data got absorbed into the DNA of the handling during the last 3 or 4 cycles, and we've been getting green-eye babies ...stressing the father's faith and trust in the mother. But the 06z mean leaped quite a bit back toward a major risk avn, with some members in there beneath climo depth, too. Yeah...stating the obvious, also... this is all beyond 120 hours, this last run -away child consternation... Maybe expectations for stability in the guidance isn't proportional to modeling skill. Yeah the GFS suite from 12z through 00z seemed dubious. It wasn’t matching any other guidance. Didn’t mean it was wrong, but it made it more likely and the shift back sort of confirms that prior. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 5 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS…still quite a lot of spread Still that heavy lean over NJ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, amarshall said: Just coming out of the marsh from duck hunting . Big fat flakes . Mood snow . Wonder if you’ll wetbulb to 32 if that heavier stuff moves in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 29 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: CT PEEPS: Taking a scenic morning drive north and west of Simsbury. Any particular roads anyone recommends? I've looped the Barkhamsted reservoir on Rt 20 once prior... Might check out some of the more remote towns far closer to border in the higher elevations to scout property. If you take Rt20 towards Riverton, you could take Milo Coe road up through the Granville state forest. Nice drive! Ends up on rt57 in West Granville. Milo is part stone fyi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Still that heavy lean over NJ Yes but notice on the next frame how many of them slide almost due east or ENE. That’s kind of what Dec ‘92 did. The sfc low initially hugged and tucked into Delaware/extreme S NJ (cape May region) and just ripped easterly flow into everywhere but then it slid ENE to south of BID which kept the interior snowing and helped flip some of the coastal areas over later in the game. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Not a cloud in the sky but cold at 29 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yes but notice on the next frame how many of them slide almost due east or ENE. That’s kind of what Dec ‘92 did. The sfc low initially hugged and tucked into Delaware/extreme S NJ (cape May region) and just ripped easterly flow into everywhere but then it slid ENE to south of BID which kept the interior snowing and helped flip some of the coastal areas over later in the game. Thanks. Wasn't great here on the CT coast but ended up with a solid 6 at the very end. If I am not mistaken this has a better air mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 jesus my mind... I'm already attempting discrete meteorological analysis and correction techniques, internally. Like, ... as we near the end of the week, the thermal gradient between just 100 naut miles of Cape May to CC, and the I-95 region of the coast, should really be exceptionally steep. And by 'thermal' ..I'm not just talking about temperature. The DP plays a role that is more important in thermodynamic physics when dealing with the gases ...to wit: the atmosphere is a big huge fart ball. Anyway, if a Euro/06z GEFs/06z EPS type blend aloft encroaches upon that area, any low that forms will pack tighter west. If the approach of the jets field associated with that large "tumbler" low ejecting torpedo maxes out ahead of it, crucially coherent would trigger the sfc to 700 mb cyclone manifestation to be W as the "correction vector" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 51 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Lol all in good fun. Love the overnight runs and 6z gfs/gefs. Clear nod to a big dawg. No reason to sweat details and qpf…don’t melt down yet @Hoth Oh I'm not worried. I just was interested in the precipitation distribution and thought perhaps it reflected shadowing in the valley. Going to be a fun week of tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 26 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Thanks. Wasn't great here on the CT coast but ended up with a solid 6 at the very end. If I am not mistaken this has a better air mass. There was a pretty good amount of coastal flooding - I was at a beach in Southport that got inundated while I was there - came in very quickly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Snowing nicely in Hanover 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Snowing nicely here. Festive. Cold surfaces coated 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: I’ve got a nice Hangover Will you be able to drink today at GTG? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 2 bonafide threats inside 7 days... preceding OES underway... what's not to like. Pattern change and surface results arriving exactly as progged by many. Based on current guidance only, 12/16 has bigger risk of LBSW than suppression imo... I mentioned earlier southwest capture yesterday as the ULL catches up to SLP. Big dog more like than not, but details very much will be in flux pending track of of the 50/50 low in next few days. GFS is heavily outnumbered here. Have a fun time at GTG folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Actually getting some flurries up here as well. 28° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Any chance this huge ULL cuts off and the 2 ridges link up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Gfs back to a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 15 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Any chance this huge ULL cuts off and the 2 ridges link up? Excuse the stupidity but are you talking about a ridge “bridge “ across South central Canada west to East ..I.e something good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 The set up on gfs looks like damage for central Pa over to NY state and interior elevations of New England . Nice East fetch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Gfs back to a storm Yeah...I was just gonna say ... I'm not likely as far along the release as you given to my stingy cheapness with hating to pay for petty services, but as of 114 hours, there are certain morphology ( changes in size and shape..) that suggest this would destined better than the recent excursion - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: The set up on gfs looks like damage for central Pa over to NY state . Nice East fetch What a model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Tucky tucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 SNE isn’t going to like that run. Congrats PF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: What a model Not looking good for most on this run. Rainy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 30 years later the goofus gives me a Dec 92 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: SNE isn’t going to like that run. Congrats PF Ha... if one is 'reasonable' ? they love it - anything tastes better than that 3 -run excursion just eaten from the GFS. The whole lot of the last ...5 cycles, really demo the model is having excessive difficulty. The continuity has been non-existence as a hint there. Having or not having a storm is not part of that continuity - the details in the synoptics have varied, within a pork job manifold - therein is the smell of BS. - the consumer really shouldn't be purchasing from this particular guidance source until - at minimum - it demonstrates a modicum of continuity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Not looking good for most on this run. Rainy. It just shifted way north . That's what I'm getting at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Gfs rains because it doesn’t really wind up the low and it tucks. I’m just glad we’re getting more consensus of a sizable event. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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