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December 2022 Obs/Disc


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I missed the red eye flight overnight (still back around page 145 or whatever too many this is) but... the morning note was that the 06z GFS made a significant move back in the other direction ... However so telling that is, remains to be seen.

In my snark late last evening resides elements of truth ... such that the previous ... I think 3 cycles of that model, the first in the series of which it went from a complete juggernaut on the previous ... to modeling that state of affairs on Pluto, neither of those 3 runs looked very much like the other. In other words, it was a continuity break to leap from the previous into the abandon state, but then it could not establish a consistent vision within the 3, either. 

So good luck parsing that out before 9 am on a Saturday morning...  But upon seeing the 06z solution make at least a paltry attempt to rejoin the pack ... does two things:   it pulls away from credibility over the recent GFS runs even farther; makes me yet again existentially question my purpose of being when I'm spending this much time writing about it

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8 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

 

C’mon boys:(….that hurt. 

I did say yesterday when I snarled at TBlizz, that this might be gone by Wednesday…didn’t think it would be gone by today lol.  So give me a lil pat there. 

GFS is struggling with this…it’s in its “lose the storm phase”, as it does most every system at some point.  

Lol all in good fun. 
 

Love the overnight runs and 6z gfs/gefs. Clear nod to a big dawg. No reason to sweat details and qpf…don’t melt down yet @Hoth

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Lol all in good fun. 
 

Love the overnight runs and 6z gfs/gefs. Clear nod to a big dawg. No reason to sweat details and qpf…don’t melt down yet @Hoth

:lol:I know..was just laughing when I read it. 
 

ya overnight runs were encouraging…ingredients seem to be in place…exciting days ahead.  Tomorrow kicks off some fun. Looking forward to meeting folks today too. Gonna be a nice afternoon. 

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1 minute ago, TalcottWx said:

CT PEEPS: Taking a scenic morning drive north and west of Simsbury. Any particular roads anyone recommends? I've looped the Barkhamsted reservoir on Rt 20 once prior... 

That’s the best route but you can take it further west after the reservoir on 44 into Colebrook and Norfolk.

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18 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

So is that the upper level h5 primary in those pictures? 

 

30 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

let’s wait until Monday to get too excited, but this is an amazing look

4D58BAC4-FF64-43FC-8F0E-ABE66D96A26D.thumb.png.c6c736685c5a143707e0043ea2f07613.png6D8BE1ED-65F9-4410-B77A-5D4882A74F24.thumb.png.1f19a3fb280d38f8913b974a44c4223d.png

So it's looking like the GFS is back closer to the euro again, is that what I'm reading with these two maps?

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5 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS…still quite a lot of spread

 

0A652EE2-0403-48BD-882F-72EC245170FC.png

A444B510-5231-4741-BF79-8ED8D6EAD1C2.png

EF0B8152-F419-4725-9BCD-ABF70E65A87C.png

Still a couple pages back ... but if it's any worth, the overnight GEF mean was hugely improved ( for winter enthusiasts :) ) wrt to this system over the prior mean/spreads.... 

The prior wasn't as freakishly miserable as the operational 's rather abrupt deviation toward oblivion during those 3 runs... but it was mid way.

Don't want to over emphasize here ...but, the 18z GEFs late yesterday afternoon was beginning to side with the operational run, with only a vague impression remaining... escaping seaward.   Here is the 18z vs the ensuing 00z 

image.png.e30326e603d8e54c05018c2b0617c039.png

 

Almost smacks as though some bad data got absorbed into the DNA of the handling during the last 3 or 4 cycles, and we've been getting green-eyed babies ...stressing the father's faith and trust in the mother.  But the 06z mean leaped quite a bit back toward a major risk avn, with some members in there beneath climo depth, too.  

Yeah...stating the obvious, also...  this is all beyond 120 hours, this last run -away child consternation... Maybe expectations for stability in the guidance isn't proportional to modeling skill.  

 

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2 hours ago, Hoth said:

Nice little FU to CT there. Downslope with a ginormous easterly fetch?

I have looked at this phenomenon a lot, seems that if you are directly north of the LP there is a tendency for dry slotting after the fronto passes. 

Perhaps the METS can opine with the actual specifics.

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