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December 2022 Obs/Disc


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2 hours ago, George001 said:

Agreed, but this one looks like it has a higher ceiling due to the reasons I stated in the post above. The ULL is deepening rapidly and is very strong. Gfs is on its own so I’m ignoring it.

Every storm *is* a blizzard, George. don't listen to these negative nancys. 

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17 minutes ago, weathafella said:

A true blast from the past!   I remember when my parents moved to FL in the 70s I went to visit and it was cold-50s for highs.  Floridians in snorkel jackets.

I went down one January, highs were in the 50's and windy, low at night below freezing, I didn't bring a jacket, had to buy one.

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11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’d bet it is. Icon and cmc have a coastal. We’ve been here before. Doesn’t mean we will get a George outcome but I’d bet against a shredded whiff a week out. 

As long as euro doesn’t trend toward a shredder 

i wouldn’t mention icon at day 7 in this pattern but I’d obviously rather have them show a coastal I think lol

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GFS management of the H5 vortex north of ME is so different and therein lies the solution difference.  GFS brings it over NNE and is slower to scoot it east vs other guidance.  We'll keep an eye on this and see but I'm skeptical of that evolution given where the primary is starting.  With all that said, one would think the GFS argues for a bigger solution on Sunday/Monday suppressing everything for a period afterwards.  So if we get an upside surprise late weekend, consider the GFS as having a bit more validity.

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I feel like we should be getting a statement from NCEP operations  stating that they’re taking the GFS off-line for emergency maintenance

If you look at the last three runs across North America the only thing consistent is a state utter entropy.  And it’s plate of spaghetti with a different construction to the synoptically layout everywhere on each run. Weird. 

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