December 2022 Obs/Disc

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Last nights gfs but consensus is against that now.  I’d rather a Miller B though.

I think it's still up in the air, but I hedged SWFE today.

[Damage In Tolland]

Are we losing it or is this typical old school GFS bullshit 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

So looking at gfs 12z and 18 gfs are Terds in punch bowl 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Are we losing it or is this typical old school GFS bullshit 

It’s on the table 

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Are we losing it or is this typical old school GFS bullshit 

good test for the GFS. it ain't as bad as it used to be, but it's also 7 days out. I wouldn't completely dismiss it. Any sort of compromise would still be a decent hit

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

good test for the GFS. it ain't as bad as it used to be, but it's also 7 days out. I wouldn't completely dismiss it. Any sort of compromise would still be a decent hit

Im basically clueless at to what will determine the fate of this 7 day threat we have been tracking for 5 days , but as qqomega said The ULL May determine its fate 

I have not gotten to emotionally involved in things that have been over a week out , in hoping gfs farted 

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Im basically clueless at to what will determine the fate of this 7 day threat we have been tracking for 5 days , but as qqomega said The ULL May determine its fate 

I have not gotten to emotionally involved in things that have been over a week out , in hoping gfs farted 

me neither. my expectations were always low here..but I could see this causing some melts further inland. nothing else really showing that yet, at least

[dryslot]

It looks more Miller B'ish then a SWFE, It wants to pop a secondary around the delmarva for the 16th.

[George001]

Digging deeper into the upper levels for the 12z Euro run, I am convinced that this is a big dog. On the Euro, that northern energy phases into the already closed off upper low and re strengthens it once it gets to around Ohio, and the ULL continues to deepen as it moves west to east. The ULL gets down to 518 dm over the cape and islands. Based on the things I read here my impression is that lower dm = a more powerful storm. A rapidly strengthening ULL from 534 to a triple closed contour 518 dm ULL as it moves from Ohio to over cape cod? I don’t give a flying fuck what the ptype maps say, that run was WAY more impressive than what the surface shows. We have a potent rapidly strengthening closed off ULL about 50-100 miles north of where we want it. Even so, I would think that due to the strength of the storm after starting as rain, as the low undergoes rapid cyclogenesis it would dynamically cool the column leading to the rain snow line crashing SE. Also, 50-100 miles is nothing at this range, even as is I would think the surface output is underestimating the strength of the low and QPF output. Am I missing something here, or is the Euro hinting at a full blown Miller B nor’easter/blizzard potential? I know, I’m trying not to overuse that term but I would think it applies here, as the contrast between the strength of the low and high pressure to the north would lead to extremely windy conditions on top of the heavy snowfall. I’m not saying EVERYONE is going to get clobbered, but I would think someone does, whether it’s the just the interior or coastal areas join in on the fun remains to be seen.

[HoarfrostHubb]

A week out.  There will be whiffs and monsters for a bit

Ensembles for now

[Heisy]

I would argue it's even more sheared in this run, actually..  It's completely rushed into oblivion promptly after 102 to 108 hours....within a day it's completely been destructively interfered down to a shear axis. 
I've never seen that before.    It's as though it has brought the entire Ferril trade band all the way down 45 to 50 N.   It has an easterly jet at 500 mb from SE Canada to lower B.C.

My personal assumption is these runs are in error ... but who knows. It's an abrupt change ...nooormally that's a red flag in itself, but model wildness isn't uncommon in the extended. Also, the NAO is a suppression factor.  I think though doing this, that abruptly on D5 is a little more odd than normal though, particularly when the ensemble mean is divorced from that idea, and cross guidance doesn't agree much either.   Strange...  some conflicting arguments here, but it seems the weight is against.   That above is about as suppressed as is imaginably possible within Terran physics - mooshed to non existence.

Look at difference with energy S of Alaska between 18z GFS and 18z EURO. Euro good bit slower/west. GFS ends up pushing that shortwave ahead fast like you mentioned, flow gets completely screwed up. Euro holding it back. Hopefully we see a correction at 00z. I believe we will, GFS is basically on an island here.



.

[Heisy]

Look at difference with energy S of Alaska between 18z GFS and 18z EURO. Euro good bit slower/west. GFS ends up pushing that shortwave ahead fast like you mentioned, flow gets completely screwed up. Euro holding it back. Hopefully we see a correction at 00z. I believe we will, GFS is basically on an island here.



.

Not to bombard the thread with photos, but here is 18z euro vs gfs. Look at the same region (wave S of Alaska). See the difference in positioning here. I’d bet a decent amount of money we see GFS cave at 00/6z. At 90 hours that wave is almost entering the same trough on the GFS. When it comes to the rest of the setup it looks pretty identical. Could it still cut? Sure, but as for shred city I think this kicker is what’s causing GFS to show it.



.

[78Blizzard]

38 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Are we losing it or is this typical old school GFS bullshit 

That's 2 GFS runs in a row saying what storm.  You can loop the last 5 GFS runs and see the gradual progression south with each run.  What was a big hit for NNE on last night's 18z slowly disintegrated to the south with each successive run.  This had better start turning around tonight or tomorrow.

[SJonesWX]

30 minutes ago, George001 said:

Digging deeper into the upper levels for the 12z Euro run, I am convinced that this is a big dog. On the Euro, that northern energy phases into the already closed off upper low and re strengthens it once it gets to around Ohio, and the ULL continues to deepen as it moves west to east. The ULL gets down to 518 dm over the cape and islands. Based on the things I read here my impression is that lower dm = a more powerful storm. A rapidly strengthening ULL from 534 to a triple closed contour 518 dm ULL as it moves from Ohio to over cape cod? I don’t give a flying fuck what the ptype maps say, that run was WAY more impressive than what the surface shows. We have a potent rapidly strengthening closed off ULL about 50-100 miles north of where we want it. Even so, I would think that due to the strength of the storm after starting as rain, as the low undergoes rapid cyclogenesis it would dynamically cool the column leading to the rain snow line crashing SE. Also, 50-100 miles is nothing at this range, even as is I would think the surface output is underestimating the strength of the low and QPF output. Am I missing something here, or is the Euro hinting at a full blown Miller B nor’easter/blizzard potential? I know, I’m trying not to overuse that term but I would think it applies here, as the contrast between the strength of the low and high pressure to the north would lead to extremely windy conditions on top of the heavy snowfall. I’m not saying EVERYONE is going to get clobbered, but I would think someone does, whether it’s the just the interior or coastal areas join in on the fun remains to be seen.

JFC George you have got to settle down. not every storm is a blizzard. 

[George001]

1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said:

That's 2 GFS runs in a row saying what storm.  You can loop the last 5 GFS runs and see the gradual progression south with each run.  What was a big hit for NNE on last night's 18z slowly disintegrated to the south with each successive run.  This had better start turning around tonight or tomorrow.

Eh gfs is on its own and has gotten worse since the upgrade

[George001]

2 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

JFC George you have got to settle down. not every storm is a blizzard. 

Agreed, but this one looks like it has a higher ceiling due to the reasons I stated in the post above. The ULL is deepening rapidly and is very strong. Gfs is on its own so I’m ignoring it.

[78Blizzard]

2 minutes ago, George001 said:

Eh gfs is on its own and has gotten worse since the upgrade

As Tip said earlier, "should this freak pattern look go on to verify, there will be no question as to which model was superior in detection."

[512high]

Little by little I'm learning not to get "sucked in", so far out on a system, granted its been quiet, but shit these models seem worse than last year? Maybe because of "upgrades" and so forth. Another roller coaster on models coming up.

[Damage In Tolland]

22 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

That's 2 GFS runs in a row saying what storm.  You can loop the last 5 GFS runs and see the gradual progression south with each run.  What was a big hit for NNE on last night's 18z slowly disintegrated to the south with each successive run.  This had better start turning around tonight or tomorrow.

It still is the GFS op with little GEFS support.  That being said .. it’s not the old GFS and it now is at least capable of sniffing something out. The GGEM sniffed out Sunday Night/ Monday snow evevt . So things can sometimes sniff

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Are we losing it or is this typical old school GFS bullshit 

BS

[WinterWolf]

34 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

That's 2 GFS runs in a row saying what storm.  You can loop the last 5 GFS runs and see the gradual progression south with each run.  What was a big hit for NNE on last night's 18z slowly disintegrated to the south with each successive run.  This had better start turning around tonight or tomorrow.

Lmao…it better turn around tonight…or what, it’s gone?  It’s 7 days away for god sakes.  It just turned around completely from what it was the last two days.  
 

Monster Blocking gonna be tough on modeling.  Did you expect this to stay completely steady state from now till next Friday?   It’s an OP run 7 days away…do folks forget everything once the modeling shows a couple nice hits?  OP runs gonna Op run.  Like you’ve been hearing …stick with ensembles at this stage.  Now relax…it’s gonna be a long road if you’re fretting over every OP run. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It still is the GFS op with little GEFS support.  That being said .. it’s not the old GFS and it now is at least capable of sniffing something out. The GGEM sniffed out Sunday Night/ Monday snow evevt . So things can sometimes sniff

No beer?

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

No beer?

Beer

[HoarfrostHubb]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Beer

 

[78Blizzard]

37 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lmao…it better turn around tonight…or what, it’s gone?  It’s 7 days away for god sakes.  It just turned around completely from what it was the last two days.  
 

Monster Blocking gonna be tough on modeling.  Did you expect this to stay completely steady state from now till next Friday?   It’s an OP run 7 days away…do folks forget everything once the modeling shows a couple nice hits?  OP runs gonna Op run.  Like you’ve been hearing …stick with ensembles at this stage.  Now relax…it’s gonna be a long road if you’re fretting over every OP run. 

Last night it was a GFS OP run 8 days away, yet that's different.  A week ago people were railing against the posting of an 8 day op that didn't fit the pattern narrative here. Can't have it both ways.

[WinterWolf]

9 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Last night it was a GFS OP run 8 days away, yet that's different.  A week ago people were railing against the posting of an 8 day op that didn't fit the pattern narrative here. Can't have it both ways.

It’s not both ways…at least not for me. But go ahead and think this needs to turn around on the GFS OP by tonight or tomorrow.  

[weathafella]

1 hour ago, 78Blizzard said:

That's 2 GFS runs in a row saying what storm.  You can loop the last 5 GFS runs and see the gradual progression south with each run.  What was a big hit for NNE on last night's 18z slowly disintegrated to the south with each successive run.  This had better start turning around tonight or tomorrow.

In general, the rule of thumb I follow is to toss the far outlier.  But at a week out if the other guidance trends towards it kudos.    That block has to be really crazy to suppress the d7 event.

[Eskimo Joe]

2 hours ago, dryslot said:

It looks more Miller B'ish then a SWFE, It wants to pop a secondary around the delmarva for the 16th.

Please just give the Mid Altantic a shot in a La Nina.

[WxWatcher007]

As far out as it goes but this doesn’t look too bad to me with that cluster near the Delmarva. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

As far out as it goes but this doesn’t look too bad to me with that cluster near the Delmarva. 

Did hour 150 on 12z eps differ much w mall location and strength . Those are all pretty weak except the one 989