December 2022 Obs/Disc

[Go Kart Mozart]

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Still some tucky tucky members 

One cluster over NY/NJ matches the operational, a scattershot further east, nothing to the west.  At this early juncture, the correction vector would seem to lean south and east.

Follow the clusters everybody, the mean is meaningless!

[SouthCoastMA]

Just now, George001 said:

If it’s over the cape that’s fine but a lot of them go into western mass. Hopefully the 2 camps meet in the middle.

Nah over the Cape would be a rainer inside of 495, at least. 

[Typhoon Tip]

I also think this pattern as a hemispheric scope between day 4?and roughly 10 is modeled to enter a rarer type of set up… perhaps even unique.

 Maybe a tad of “uncharted waters”!there

[MJO812]

Eps is full of winter

[wxsniss]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think the reason for this is that the ocean storm (50/50 low) from 12/12 is further east on the 12z EPS than 00z, so there is a bit more room for the huggers.

Agree

Relatedly, looks like surface low gets captured earlier and further southwest at 12z

Great look for southeast NY / western SNE / CNE, but we're a long way away

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Nah over the Cape would be a rainer inside of 495, at least. 

Right… it’s got to be around the benchmark.

[powderfreak]

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Kind of interesting toggling the 12z and 00z EPS individual cyclone members. The primary is weaker and further south, the high to the north is stronger, but there are definitely more huggers in the 12z EPS suite despite those two previous variables.

Can’t hate it though?  Block probably keeps suppressing it.  Given GFS it’s probably good to hug it in there.

A GFS/ECM mean is a great look for the populations.

[George001]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Nah over the Cape would be a rainer inside of 495, at least. 

Idk March 2017 went right over my area or even west and we got about 8 inches before a changeover to sleet and then rain. The ocean temps are warmer now then they were in March 2017 though so you might be right. Depends on how strong the low gets.

[Greg]

9 minutes ago, George001 said:

If it’s over the cape that’s fine but a lot of them go into western mass. Hopefully the 2 camps meet in the middle.

Personally, I don't like when storms go over the Cape. To me, I like it when the center barely grazes or stays offshore (Especially just inside the Benchmark) but centers that go directly over the Cape to me is a very risky path unless the depth of that cold air is strong to offset that, especially for the Eastern Mass peeps with the exception of the Cape and Islands.

[weathafella]

4 minutes ago, George001 said:

Idk March 2017 went right over my area or even west and we got about 8 inches before a changeover to sleet and then rain. The ocean temps are warmer now then they were in March 2017 though so you might be right. Depends on how strong the low gets.

SST in March is probably 10F colder though 

[George001]

1 minute ago, Greg said:

Personally, I don't like when storms go over the Cape. To me, I like it when they can graze or stay offshore but centers that go directly over the Cape to me is a very risky path unless the depth of that cold air is strong  to offset that, especially for the Eastern Mass peeps with the exception of the Cape and Islands.

Thats fair. The amount of cold air available will definitely be something those of us in eastern mass need to keep an eye on for this threat. There are some mixed signals with that, hopefully the -EPO and low strength win out over the warm waters and -PNA. At least for my area I agree with the people concerned about rain, that’s a much bigger concern than ots. Something like Feb 2 2021 could be a decent analog if the EPS and Canadian are right. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I’ve seen it before… I’ve been referring to it as a “tumbler” during the day for fun. 

I mentioned 1/12/11....but I started trying to recall others and the first big one in March '93 also achieved that feat....it gets overlooked by the Superstorm obviously, but it was a big storm in New England. I think we had about a foot.

 

But it was a "tumbler" as you say....

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1993/us0301.php

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1993/us0302.php

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1993/us0303.php

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1993/us0304.php

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1993/us0305.php

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

I’ve also referred to these as ‘Minnesota squeeze’ which I have since the days when college was useful to society  …

It’s basically whenever you get a trough eject through the west and it runs into resistance and can’t curl up into a Canada as cutter… they usually don’t make it though… They start to pancake and open up as they approach the Ohio valley often times still enough to give us an over running mess or perhaps a New Jersey model redeveloper.  

Like Will or whom that was just said said though the euro just has an absolute shit ton of mechanics and momentum it’s got to deal with so it ends up stem winding.

Yeah I would definitely take this model with a grain of salt at this range because it tends to over amplify beyond D5s ,  and this whole scenario is giving a carte blanch to exercise its native bias.  

It’s almost like ecmwf.org called up George and ask him what the model should look like today… He told them the end of civilization as we know it of course but … they decided that was a bit too out there so we got this compromise. 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I mentioned 1/12/11....but I started trying to recall others and the first big one in March '93 also achieved that feat....it gets overlooked by the Superstorm obviously, but it was a big storm in New England. I think we had about a foot.

 

But it was a "tumbler" as you say....

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1993/us0301.php

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1993/us0302.php

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1993/us0303.php

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1993/us0304.php

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1993/us0305.php

 

 

Yeah that’s the one I think I was thinking of that one way back in the day. Ha. Weird

But I just have all kinds of abstract memories of other ones too

[brooklynwx99]

holy shit. this is an unreal look. lots of split flow too

[WxWatcher007]

6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

holy shit. this is an unreal look. lots of split flow too

[weathafella]

EPS looked cold but more suppression potential.   GEFS looked more fun in terms of potential snow.  Both looked pretty nice though.

[Typhoon Tip]

That would be amazing for winter enthusiasts if that extended worked out after the storm… Transitioning into a monster negative EPO with massive cold load into the Canada … Solid moderate to major snowstorm followed by protecting cold

Even hints of a multi stream phased solution rotating around if the 10 were allowed to extend longer. 

It’s always on D10 tho that’s the rub

[Hoth]

That’s a cold and awesome look in the long range. One potential point of concern, as some utility companies have pointed out, is strained LNG supplies that could lead to disruptions and blackouts if we get sustained anomalous cold. Hopefully that doesn’t pan out. 

[PWMan]

1 hour ago, tunafish said:

you and i (and Ray) are all in the pork zone for the next two systems as it stands right now.

climo and blocking FTL

Whiffs followed by rain. Ho-ho-ho

[Ginx snewx]

45 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I mentioned 1/12/11....but I started trying to recall others and the first big one in March '93 also achieved that feat....it gets overlooked by the Superstorm obviously, but it was a big storm in New England. I think we had about a foot.

 

But it was a "tumbler" as you say....

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1993/us0301.php

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1993/us0302.php

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1993/us0303.php

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1993/us0304.php

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1993/us0305.php

68.5

 

Excellent memory for being a wee lad at the time. 12.1 here and the 3 a couple days later before the foot of snow and sleet at hurricane force.

[mreaves]

2 hours ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Nah over the Cape would be a rainer inside of 495, at least. 

I see nothing wrong with that. 

[Heisy]

GFS (18z does the same) only model that has the Pac low interacting with the main ULL. Yeah the 50/50 matters, but the kicker plays a major role too.


.

[Heisy]

GFS (18z does the same) only model that has the Pac low interacting with the main ULL. Yeah the 50/50 matters, but the kicker plays a major role too.


.

Here is what I mean, check out the difference out west. Canadian and Euro have that “Total Recall” famous scene look, while the GFS has, whatever you want to call this mess





.

[MJOatleast7]

That’s a cold and awesome look in the long range. One potential point of concern, as some utility companies have pointed out, is strained LNG supplies that could lead to disruptions and blackouts if we get sustained anomalous cold. Hopefully that doesn’t pan out. 

12/25/1980?


.

[Typhoon Tip]

23 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Here is what I mean, check out the difference out west. Canadian and Euro have that “Total Recall” famous scene look, while the GFS has, whatever you want to call this mess





.

I would argue it's even more sheared in this run, actually..  It's completely rushed into oblivion promptly after 102 to 108 hours....within a day it's completely been destructively interfered down to a shear axis. 

I've never seen that before.    It's as though it has brought the entire Ferril trade band all the way down 45 to 50 N.   It has an easterly jet at 500 mb from SE Canada to lower B.C.

My personal assumption is these runs are in error ... but who knows. It's an abrupt change ...nooormally that's a red flag in itself, but model wildness isn't uncommon in the extended. Also, the NAO is a suppression factor.  I think though doing this, that abruptly on D5 is a little more odd than normal though, particularly when the ensemble mean is divorced from that idea, and cross guidance doesn't agree much either.   Strange...  some conflicting arguments here, but it seems the weight is against.   That above is about as suppressed as is imaginably possible within Terran physics - mooshed to non existence.

[Typhoon Tip]

I'll tell you one thing for certain ... should this freak pattern look go on to verify, there will be no question as to which model was superior in detection.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, weathafella said:

No.

Some runs it is.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Nah over the Cape would be a rainer inside of 495, at least. 

Depends on trajectory.

[weathafella]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Some runs it is.

Last nights gfs but consensus is against that now.  I’d rather a Miller B though.