December 2022 Obs/Disc

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The pattern change is going to go through multiple stages....when the block is first forming, we get the torch with a likely cutter or warmer type system going to our northwest (Dec 5-7) which actually feeds back into the block.....2nd, we get the initial cold push which still has higher heights in the south. This is what Tip was commenting on earlier with "Velocity" issue. This would be like in the Dec 8-12 time frame. We can get a system in this type of flow, but usually clippers and SWFEs.

Then finally, you get the higher heights in the south retrograding into the western plains and Rockies (post 12/12....heading toward mid-month) which is what Scooter was talking about above....that's more of a big dog look. That's a very good pattern for larger snow events for us. Hopefully it sets up and hopefully we cash in.

I have no issues pointing out caution flags...you know me. But for an ensemble mean.....it continues to look as if things are proceeding nicely. Are we really losing our shit over something that may be delayed 2-3 days??  

[TalcottWx]

1 hour ago, CT Rain said:

I wonder what the latest 1" on record is for BDL. We'll probably make a run at it. 

He chose violence. 

[TalcottWx]

1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Come round the bend
You know it's the end
The fireman screams
And the engine just gleams

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I have no issues pointing out caution flags...you know me. But for an ensemble mean.....it continues to look as if things are proceeding nicely. Are we really losing our shit over something that may be delayed 2-3 days??  

Yes.

There's probably multiple reasons for it....first, we're just entering winter so everyone is impatient.

Second, I'll bet a large part of it is there are no snowstorms on the operational runs. That gets a lot weenies anxious, even though it shouldn't. Snowstorms occur from shortwaves.....good luck having models find a shortwave in the flow 10+ days out.

Third....there is definitely Tip's psychology aspect to it. Some probably doom and gloom so they can either be "right" or "happy"....if they are wrong, it's cold and snowy and they won't care that they were wrong. But if they're right, they get to troll everyone and pat themselves on the back for calling the bust well in advance. 

[TalcottWx]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

2/2/07

We pray

Chickens will be hacking up a lung, humidifiers needed in coops this winter, so much dry air and subsidence

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

 

I feel like we've seen this before...

 

No doubt a lot of similarities between the modeled pattern and Dec 2010 (and early Jan 2011).

[SnoSki14]

If you're mad at the pattern going forward then you're just a troll or a warminista.

But believe it or not most people would rather see warm & dry all winter so today's LR ensembles would be hellish for them. 

[Snowcrazed71]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I have no issues pointing out caution flags...you know me. But for an ensemble mean.....it continues to look as if things are proceeding nicely. Are we really losing our shit over something that may be delayed 2-3 days??  

I think we know who seems to be having the meltdown over a 2-3 day delay.  Lol

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes.

There's probably multiple reasons for it....first, we're just entering winter so everyone is impatient.

Second, I'll bet a large part of it is there are no snowstorms on the operational runs. That gets a lot weenies anxious, even though it shouldn't. Snowstorms occur from shortwaves.....good luck having models find a shortwave in the flow 10+ days out.

Third....there is definitely Tip's psychology aspect to it. Some probably doom and gloom so they can either be "right" or "happy"....if they are wrong, it's cold and snowy and they won't care that they were wrong. But if they're right, they get to troll everyone and pat themselves on the back for calling the bust well in advance. 

I think this is a big part of it. Fantasy storms are like pacifiers to the weenies. Even though they'll never end up verifying.  

[weathafella]

I dunno-pointing out alternative positions at least for me is part of the learning process. I’ve personally pointed out unfavorable progs when they happen and each time I qualify it with the fact that the ensembles generally look very good.  I pointed out tje GEPS at 12z because they were the first of the ensembles out and I thought they looked kind of hideous comparing to the tenor prior to 12z.  The rest of the suite fortunately did not agree.   While I’d love to see snow soon I don’t care so much really.  It continues to be very early.  Based on the guidance today, mid month looks potentially ripe.

[Snowcrazed71]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I dunno-pointing out alternative positions at least for me is part of the learning process. I’ve personally pointed out unfavorable progs when they happen and each time I qualify it with the fact that the ensembles generally look very good.  I pointed out tje GEPS at 12z because they were the first of the ensembles out and I thought they looked kind of hideous comparing to the tenor prior to 12z.  The rest of the suite fortunately did not agree.   While I’d love to see snow soon I don’t care so much really.  It continues to be very early.  Based on the guidance today, mid month looks potentially ripe.

Well said.

Looking back on most Winters... We typically do not see blockbuster storms or long stretches of cold and Snow until after the holiday. That is a fact.

However, would it be nice to have a December to remember or an awesome wintry lead up to the end of December? Sure! But as you said, it is early. I couldn't agree more. 

 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, weathafella said:

I dunno-pointing out alternative positions at least for me is part of the learning process. I’ve personally pointed out unfavorable progs when they happen and each time I qualify it with the fact that the ensembles generally look very good.  I pointed out tje GEPS at 12z because they were the first of the ensembles out and I thought they looked kind of hideous comparing to the tenor prior to 12z.  The rest of the suite fortunately did not agree.   While I’d love to see snow soon I don’t care so much really.  It continues to be very early.  Based on the guidance today, mid month looks potentially ripe.

I don't even think the GEPS would be that bad...they are definitely a warmer look but they still have a big NAO block so we'd have chances. Obviously we'd prefer the GEFS/EPS to verify, but I wouldn't be bridge-jumping either if the GEPS was closer to reality. GEPS almost reminds me of late Dec 2002/early Jan 2003 pattern which was very good for the interior.

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I dunno-pointing out alternative positions at least for me is part of the learning process. I’ve personally pointed out unfavorable progs when they happen and each time I qualify it with the fact that the ensembles generally look very good.  I pointed out tje GEPS at 12z because they were the first of the ensembles out and I thought they looked kind of hideous comparing to the tenor prior to 12z.  The rest of the suite fortunately did not agree.   While I’d love to see snow soon I don’t care so much really.  It continues to be very early.  Based on the guidance today, mid month looks potentially ripe.

You made me look at the GEPS for the first time in maybe 2 years lol. It actually looked stormy...I didn't think it was that bad, but I saw your point.

I think having the ops not show anything is a big part of the complaining. Everyone knows not to believe it...but it's like weenie crack. Just got to have it. 

[forkyfork]

i think most non mets here don't really know what they're looking at which is why they post snow maps all the time

[Superstorm93]

Hate to beat the 2010 comparison into the ground, but even the NAM looks to behave quite similarly (if you believe the GFS)  

[Modfan2]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don't even think the GEPS would be that bad...they are definitely a warmer look but they still have a big NAO block so we'd have chances. Obviously we'd prefer the GEFS/EPS to verify, but I wouldn't be bridge-jumping either if the GEPS was closer to reality. GEPS almost reminds me of late Dec 2002/early Jan 2003 pattern which was very good for the interior.

I mean I remember plenty of winters trucking up to Sunday River in early Dec and then only having 25 runs open patience people, if we are approaching Christmas with nothing then maybe it’s a cause for concern.

[WxUSAF]

4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I haven't kept up in recent months, but back in the first weeks after the eruption, I recall reading that it didn't eject enough mass sulfates up into the stratosphere to really be anything close to something like a Pinatubo when it comes to climate impacts.

I'm guessing that is still the case....a lot of the material probably stayed under water and/or settled back to the earth as much of it never got high enough to get into the stratosphere.

 

4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I saw the same that Will saw. I also saw that it injected a lot of water vapor into the stratosphere and some were wondering if that actually would help warm the atmosphere (troposphere) in the coming years...but that's the extent I have heard.

Yes, very minimal SO2 release, but directly injected a massive amount of H2O to the strat and mesosphere. My colleagues have estimated a couple tenths of a degree warming over next couple years from this. Nature paper from Nov 19 finds a net climate warming signal already. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 

Yes, very minimal SO2 release, but directly injected a massive amount of H2O to the strat and mesosphere. My colleagues have estimated a couple tenths of a degree warming over next couple years from this. Nature paper from Nov 19 finds a net climate warming signal already. 

That is interesting. The rare tropical volcano that contributes to warming rather than cooling. That’s the way to do it though…inject a bunch of water vapor and little to no sulfur. 

[weathafella]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You made me look at the GEPS for the first time in maybe 2 years lol. It actually looked stormy...I didn't think it was that bad, but I saw your point.

I think having the ops not show anything is a big part of the complaining. Everyone knows not to believe it...but it's like weenie crack. Just got to have it. 

The big cmc feature on both the op and ensembles was the boundary being like 400 miles north of everyone else.  Also the geps lowered heights in AK in the long range.  I recognized the nao but the pacific kind of went to crap.  Funny thing is I don’t look at it much either but I did today while having coffee late morning…lol.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 

Yes, very minimal SO2 release, but directly injected a massive amount of H2O to the strat and mesosphere. My colleagues have estimated a couple tenths of a degree warming over next couple years from this. Nature paper from Nov 19 finds a net climate warming signal already. 

Will Mauna Lau’s eruption have any impact climate wise?

[WxUSAF]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Will Mauna Lau’s eruption have any impact climate wise?

Not unless it gets much bigger than it currently is. These aren’t explosive eruptions, so all the gas release is near the surface and not into the stratosphere.

[dryslot]

57 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Here is the progression in 3 charts....first one is Dec 6, 2nd is Dec 9, and last one is Dec 13

 

 

The last two EPS charts should end up getting some wintry weather as systems would look to track underneath us, That first chart looks like it would yield a warmer system with a low track to the west, So we have more time to wait.

[ORH_wxman]

Weeklies look good until near Xmas when they go to crap and stay that way into January.

Take it fwiw....they've been pretty awful though this season...esp beyond week 2/3. They missed the upcoming pattern even just last week and they missed the mid-November flip.

 

[forkyfork]

you should all be excited 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

you should all be excited 

Look at this...any mention of 2010 and his pants fall off. I knew the weenie was still lurking in Forky.

[TalcottWx]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Man the EPS looks sweet in the 11-15. It's doing exactly what others have said...ridge retros and we pop a Rockies ridge with mean trough Great lakes. That's a good look. 

Pop lock and drop it

[forkyfork]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Look at this...any mention of 2010 and his pants fall off. I knew the weenie was still lurking in Forky.

that is a massive block

[TalcottWx]

54 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i think most non mets here don't really know what they're looking at which is why they post snow maps all the time

[Damage In Tolland]

Dinkies and rumors of dinkies. 

[Lava Rock]

21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Weeklies look good until near Xmas when they go to crap and stay that way into January.

Take it fwiw....they've been pretty awful though this season...esp beyond week 2/3. They missed the upcoming pattern even just last week and they missed the mid-November flip.

 

no, I'm sure they'll model xmas/NYE just perfectly.