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December 2022 Obs/Disc


40/70 Benchmark
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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Many areas had 12-16" in eastern MA away from the coast. It was insane. I had about 6" total in Marshfield, but most of that fell in an hour. 

One thing I do recall seeing, was the violent mixing of winds. I'd say we had gusts to about 70. But it came from the N and then would be NW..then back to N. That isn't supposed to happen. Just an insane event.

That was insane…. I was in 6th grade and we got let out early and I made it home right before the the meat of the event started. I think we had around a foot at home

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Hey Will…

So it appears that the efforts of the stormchaserChuck and myself had stumbled into having two threads for the same suggestion - but it’s kind of complex in terms of risk assessment vs having an actual system within that manifold to hone. It turns out that it was just a long duration system that starts at one end and ends up at the other… I wrote some notes about it in those threads.  

from my perspective fwiw we are nearing or are at a target system. So I was thinking about having a new thread coalesced of those two,  or perhaps starting a new one altogether? either way, so that the December thread doesn’t end up having 500 pages before the 15th of the month - just a suggestion. 

Perhaps it doesn’t matter but this thread’s already getting kind of long to really keep track of them all, as there are other threats after this one. I don’t think we’re done through the end of the month. 

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Hey Will…

So it appears that the efforts of the stormchaserChuck and myself had stumbled into having two threads for the same suggestion - but it’s kind of complex in terms of risk assessment vs having an actual system within that manifold to hone. It turns out that it was just a long duration system that starts at one end and ends up at the other… I wrote some notes about it in those threads.  
 

from my perspective fwiw we are nearing or are at a target system. So I was thinking about having a new thread coalesced of those two,  or perhaps starting a new one altogether? either way, so that the December thread doesn’t end up having 500 pages before the 15th of the month - just a suggestion. 

Perhaps it doesn’t matter but the threads already getting kind of long to really keep track of them there are other threats after this one I don’t think we’re done through the end of the month so this thread just gonna get out of control lol

I can merge them

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That storm in Dec. 05' was the most impressive weather related event I've experienced (albeit, brief). I couldn't see ~100' in front of me for about an hour in Attleboro (with plenty of thundersnow). If I remember correctly, someone observed ~6-8'' of snow in 1 hour.

I was a paper boy at the time and had to deliver papers that afternoon - My mother drove me along Read St. and she ended up knocking down someone's mailbox because of "the whiteout" :lol: 

I ran an analysis simulation (WRF) of that event using the ECMWF20c reanalysis dataset for ic/bcs. I also created a radar animation for that event too superimposed with observations.

 

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25 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

ya that was 4-8" SNE with a fun stinger at the end that crushed SEMASS with a crazy hurricane blizzard ending.. 

Wild here for a time (wareham). Went from mild and partly sunny (and a cool rainbow that I vividly remember), to blizzard conditions and gusts over 80 in a matter of an hour. 

I started off the day in Norwood where it started to change to snow at the time I was leaving, but still nothing crazy (1 or 2pm??) Apparently I might have gotten stuck if I left 30 min later. 

I recall writing a summary of the storm to Mish Michaels a day after. RIP

This was also the storm that made me sign up to the EasternWx board. 

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Hard to believe that '05 storm was 17 years ago. Remember it like yesterday. Funny story on that storm is like 2 days prior to it is when both Tip and I joined EasternUsWx.....we had both been on WWBB, but when the mass exodus occurred from there, it was after the '04-'05 winter, and neither of us had been posting after that winter, so we returned to WWBB to find a wasteland, and I think we both mused to eachother on the forum "I'm surprised there isn't more discussion of the 12/9 threat...it looks pretty intense on some guidance (notably the old ETA)". Then we remembered that some people had been posting on Eastern the previous winter....so we checked it out and found the more engaging convo going on.

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Gonna have to watch for the IVT after the initial band of snow....that sig is getting a bit stronger. CT looks most favorable....but also need to watch it in central/western MA.

Is that what’s prob enhancing it by me in north jersey as well?

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13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Gonna have to watch for the IVT after the initial band of snow....that sig is getting a bit stronger. CT looks most favorable....but also need to watch it in central/western MA.

Love the 3k NAM look and temp profile

Check out NE PA heavy precip signature.

image.thumb.png.399a4d82a83d2395e8e19b0f1a36d545.png

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM has a nice signal for some instability in SW CT. Definitely gonna be a sneaky band or two that delivers. 

Oh boy...between the circle jerk waaaaay se of where I live, and the instability waaaaaaay sw of where I live, I feel a very comforting sense of continuity from the past several years.

Why?

Because its Ground Hog Day.

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Some Little OE showing up for PYM county over to S shore of Boston on Sunday before the area of precip reaches western SNE Sunday late evening .
 

Maybe something interesting for RI over to Central CT , other than those spots  looks like you wanna be west and south of ORH for anything covering ground and ideally back by the river for shot of 2” 

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8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM has a nice signal for some instability in SW CT. Definitely gonna be a sneaky band or two that delivers. 

Wouldn't shock me if someone got a decent surprise. The instability is very good....almost dry adiabatic lapse rates for a time and TTs in the 50s. Could see an intense band of heavy snow somewhere.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Oh boy...between the circle jerk waaaaay se of where I live, and the instability waaaaaaay sw of where I live, I feel a very comforting sense of continuity from the past several years.

Why?

Because its Ground Hog Day.

I think you have a good shot of some -SN later Sunday. Maybe you get a inch? FWIW SW CT really hasn't done that well either.

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think you have a good shot of some -SN later Sunday. Maybe you get a inch? FWIW SW CT really hasn't done that well either.

Yeah, we have been stuck in between or on the outside looking in from all the big coastals over the past few years. While we have not gone "snowless", it has been quite tame and boring recently. 

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