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December 2022 Obs/Disc


40/70 Benchmark
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11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Prepping for the big party tomorrow?

I approached, and asked. Do you remember I have an event on our shared calendar for Saturday. She just stared. I said, yes my weather forum weenie extravaganza. Oh yes I told you she says, don't you remember I said the family travel Trump's it. The sad part is no I don't even remember having that conversation #cte. I did ask her if she wanted to skip the family party and join us at funky Murphys which resulted in agree steps up the stairs back to her office. To be fair, holiday and family events are extremely important to her. They are hosting the entire one side of the families extended cousins brothers etc. And she is doing a good deal of the cooking. Haven't seen this side of the fam in awhile, I like them more than my own. Pretty excited about it, won't lie. But if I can get a general gauge on how long you will all be at funkys, I'll at least be able to try to manuever. I really enjoyed meeting some new faces like wxwatcher, might have been first time I met hubbdave, winter wolf is great. Other than that I have the memory of a gold fish. Scott's never shown up to a g2g I went to, I think he has a problem with me. Now he's talking about hugging ray, he seems thrilled

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Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

C-1" here.  Best is west.

That sounds about right,but I'm seeing some signs areas just north of the south coast get a nice fronto band on some models. I wonder. I only just opened modeling for the first time this winter today. That by NJ SW CT snow does move east toward you. I wonder if surpringly enough, somewhere near you had a higher potential total ceiling than here. 

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6 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

I approached, and asked. Do you remember I have an event on our shared calendar for Saturday. She just stared. I said, yes my weather forum weenie extravaganza. Oh yes I told you she says, don't you remember I said the family travel Trump's it. The sad part is no I don't even remember having that conversation #cte. I did ask her if she wanted to skip the family party and join us at funky Murphys which resulted in agree steps up the stairs back to her office. To be fair, holiday and family events are extremely important to her. They are hosting the entire one side of the families extended cousins brothers etc. And she is doing a good deal of the cooking. Haven't seen this side of the fam in awhile, I like them more than my own. Pretty excited about it, won't lie. But if I can get a general gauge on how long you will all be at funkys, I'll at least be able to try to manuever. I really enjoyed meeting some new faces like wxwatcher, might have been first time I met hubbdave, winter wolf is great. Other than that I have the memory of a gold fish. Scott's never shown up to a g2g I went to, I think he has a problem with me. Now he's talking about hugging ray, he seems thrilled

:lol:  I'm just busting. I get it.

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8 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Gfs is a whopper next Friday. I’m skeptical, but let’s keep trending

You should be skeptical at this range, but this trend was expected....I would be leery of expecting a blizzard, but this is our first major winter storm of the 2022-2023 season. Full Miller B committal.

That GFS run is Boxing Day all over for NYC....don't care what the model is spitting out.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You should be skeptical at this range, but this trend was expected....I would be leery of expecting a blizzard, but this is our first major winter storm of the 2022-2023 season.

That GFS run is Boxing Day all over for NYC....don't care what the model is spitting out.

Do you think we run the risk of this developing too far S or redeveloping too early?

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16 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Do you think we run the risk of this developing too far S or redeveloping too early?

I'm not too worried about that right now. Lets just stick with the Miller B commital....I understand it makes sense given the synoptic layout, which lends credence, but these are wholesale morphologies in the evolution of this thing in short order...lets stabilize on that front before we aim for the timing of occlusion with surgical precision.

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4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

To me it looks like the Pacific is improving, which in turn is making next weeks system more favorable for coastal redevelopment.  We are seeing heights building up into AK now which promotes downstream trough.

PNA should trend towards neutral during the second half of December and perhaps some outright +PNA in January....couple that with a reoccurrence of NAO and the mid Atl should join the fray before we thaw.

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