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December 2022 Obs/Disc


40/70 Benchmark
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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I’m actually more concerned about this whole thing weakening in the guidance.  The total manifold of the trough has been steadily losing mechanics in small percentages the last 6 consecutive runs. It could even end up being ironically weak and S 

Oh man...you always queef in the punch

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Yeah just looking at that 500 mbar evolution with a multi contoured mid level quasi cut off low deepening further while moving slowly underneath Long Island

…there’s no way to estimate the frontogenic pounding that’s capable of in that evolution. 

just be aware of model magnification.  

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Oh man...you always queef in the punch

Kevin hit the nail on the head a couple years back lol.. when he said Tip seems to always go opposite of what the current consensus might be.  Could just be coincidental, or not? Who knows?  
 

When things don’t look so good, he’s showing/explaining why he feels it may improve. And when it starts looking better/good, he’s showing why it may shit the bed.  Funny how that goes. 

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Just now, WinterWolf said:

Kevin hit the nail on the head a couple years back lol.. when he said Tip seems to always go opposite of what the current consensus might be.  Could just be coincidental, or not? Who knows?  
 

When things don’t look so good, he’s showing/explaining why he feels it may improve. And when it starts looking better/good, he’s showing why it may shit the bed.  Funny how that goes. 

He's just playing devil's advocate 

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9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is a significant trend at 500mb. makes sense to have a shove S given the anomalous 50/50 and ridging in central Canada

this is certainly worth keeping an eye on

69181B91-CB2D-477E-AE1D-011862073DEF.thumb.gif.d1b8404bdf67cfe3626ecc1a0826e6c3.gif

I don’t think it’s done either, gfs has a progressive bias so it could be breaking down the -NAO too early. So the storm could easily slow down even more, increasing QPF. Big Euro run tonight.

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6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Kevin hit the nail on the head a couple years back lol.. when he said Tip seems to always go opposite of what the current consensus might be.  Could just be coincidental, or not? Who knows?  
 

When things don’t look so good, he’s showing/explaining why he feels it may improve. And when it starts looking better/good, he’s showing why it may shit the bed.  Funny how that goes. 

It’s one run it’s hardly a consensus. 

Look I’ve been talking about model magnification and having a shed momentum in the mid range for about three years it’s a reality that’s not going away just because it needs to placate this addiction to model cinema shit. 

Sorry for bringing up realistic reasons to temper enthusiasm and not let it get away from you. 

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It’s one run it’s hardly a consensus. 

Look I’ve been talking about model magnification and having a shed momentum in the mid range for about three years it’s not going away just because it is placates this addiction to model cinema shit. 

Sorry for bringing up realistic reasons to temper enthusiasm and not let it get away from youSorry for bringing up realistic reasons to temper enthusiasm and not let it get away from you

I was just breaking your ballz

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

It’s one run it’s hardly a consensus. 

Look I’ve been talking about model magnification and having a shed momentum in the mid range for about three years it’s not going away just because it is placates this addiction to model cinema shit. 

Sorry for bringing up realistic reasons to temper enthusiasm and not let it get away from youSorry for bringing up realistic reasons to temper enthusiasm and not let it get away from you

You bring up a valid point. I’ve noticed that storms get weaker a lot as we go into the mid range. Sometimes the models re strengthen in the short range and sometimes they dont, we will have to see what happens with it. Hopefully it only weakens a little rather than becoming a shredded mess.

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It’s one run it’s hardly a consensus. 

Look I’ve been talking about model magnification and having a shed momentum in the mid range for about three years it’s not going away just because it is placates this addiction to model cinema shit. 

Sorry for bringing up realistic reasons to temper enthusiasm and not let it get away from youSorry for bringing up realistic reasons to temper enthusiasm and not let it get away from you

Hey no worries..show us why it’s doubtful. I’m cool with that from a man or your wisdom.  

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You can clearly tell that the GFS is too warm in the boundary layer again at that range, because there’s no way given that 700 500 mbar integrated evolution that that kind of sfc evolution is going to happen unless there’s a lack of cold air north of the circulation - which that’s unlikely given the antecedent conditions with the block and so forth.  

So yeah we’re talking about a solution that’s above the 85th percentile at 180 hours ? Mm. wouldnt shock me if this goes back the other way for a run or two before it comes back again but I suspect in the end the result is S. 

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13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Hey no worries..show us why it’s doubtful. I’m cool with that from a man or your wisdom.  

I’m not saying it’s doubtful… I’m telling you factually the models have been trending weaker when moving mid range events into the shorter term for a decade. I mean it’s something that has been going on. We’d be remiss not to consider that trend. 

by the way that’s a 1978 polar high W-N wow 

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I’m not saying it’s doubtful… I’m telling you factually the models have been trending weaker when moving mid range events in the shorter term for a decade. I mean it’s something that has been going on. We’d be remiss not to consider that trend. 

by the way that’s a 1978 polar high W-N wow 

No I get what you’re saying..and I agree. 

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