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December 2022 Obs/Disc


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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

After next week we in the game. Hell much of SNE could be later next week if this were to go near or SE of ACK. I’m just not sold yet.  
 

But the fact we are even talking about this compared to a few days ago is pretty cool. Things have trended better for Sunday afternoon and night and also later next week for the time being.

Great post. This was precisely my thoughts. 

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20 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

So far west and dying. But yea I guess. Many examples of primaries into Detroit with Buffalo 60 degrees while we dump. The bigger issue is antecedent air mass from top to bottom , strength and location of HP and dewpoint feed. Obviously so far out it could revert to a soueaster for all we know.

I’m trying to understand if the general set up favors an initial heavy thump (before the deep easterly Flow cooks the BL for most SE of MHT to ORH or wether there isn’t really that thump aspect where many can score a quick several inches , or otherwise I Think we depend on significant chances at 5H to get that secondary to keep winds Favorable for BL temps 

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I’m expecting a burial on Friday. Even if the low track sucks, it can snow east of the low. We got over a foot of snow from a storm with a primary into Chicago a couple of years ago. Now the primary for this one is in Wisconsin, and yeah that’s not great. Does it need work? Yeah, but the pattern supports not only more aggressive secondary redevelopment offshore, it also supports a strong low, and a slow mover. This drastically increases the ceiling for all of us, even the cape, Long Island, and NYC are in the game for this. We have the NAO and EPO negative, the PNA is also negative. We have 2/3 favorable teleconnections which is very good for us. I don’t even think we had a negative NAO for that storm, this time we do have one.

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13 minutes ago, George001 said:

I’m expecting a burial on Friday. Even if the low track sucks, it can snow east of the low. We got over a foot of snow from a storm with a primary into Chicago a couple of years ago. Now the primary for this one is in Wisconsin, and yeah that’s not great. Does it need work? Yeah, but the pattern supports not only more aggressive secondary redevelopment offshore, it also supports a strong low, and a slow mover. This drastically increases the ceiling for all of us, even the cape, Long Island, and NYC are in the game for this. We have the NAO and EPO negative, the PNA is also negative. We have 2/3 favorable teleconnections which is very good for us. I don’t even think we had a negative NAO for that storm, this time we do have one.

 

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

How’s it looking for Georges Bank?

Like money apparently.

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23 minutes ago, George001 said:

I’m expecting a burial on Friday. Even if the low track sucks, it can snow east of the low. We got over a foot of snow from a storm with a primary into Chicago a couple of years ago. Now the primary for this one is in Wisconsin, and yeah that’s not great. Does it need work? Yeah, but the pattern supports not only more aggressive secondary redevelopment offshore, it also supports a strong low, and a slow mover. This drastically increases the ceiling for all of us, even the cape, Long Island, and NYC are in the game for this. We have the NAO and EPO negative, the PNA is also negative. We have 2/3 favorable teleconnections which is very good for us. I don’t even think we had a negative NAO for that storm, this time we do have one.

JFC George. settle down Beavis

15 minutes ago, dendrite said:

How’s it looking for Georges Bank?

looking like it’s going to be overdrawn 

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17 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

0z gfs fizzles this at CT River . Decent snows for C PA/ NY over to Hudson valley and Berks /W CT then things sorta shredded 

So far ..12z gfs was basically on a Island 

 

CMC more robust, especially for New London area.  Better for BOS area, too.

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6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Next weekends storm trended more favorable 

Earlier secondary with the primary further south. Great hit for the interior .

I’m actually more concerned about this whole thing weakening in the guidance.  The total manifold of the trough has been steadily losing mechanics in small percentages the last 6 consecutive runs. It could even end up being ironically weak and S in the end.

But yeah … cross that bridge. Classic Minnesota squeeze happening in the models for now. 

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