CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Well that’s the difference then. Many Mets and us do expect more moves with a massive block on roids Read above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 I’m in stitches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Read above I did . We’ll see who ends up with better ideas . I think by Saturday at the GTG you’ll be back patting me . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 36 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: It’s 8 days away for god sakes. It’s better at this point for it to look the way it does…If it looked great today, do you think it would look that way 8 days from now. Lots of trending to go over THE NEXT 8 days. Are you always a complaining whining lil beotch? Or just like that on here? 34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: He bitches but it does need work. Are we all just assuming this is going to keep going south until it passes over Cuba? I don’t care if it’s 80 days away dude, it needs work. What I said wasn’t a lie. Are you and others just assuming it’s going to keep getting better. The everything is awesome crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I did . We’ll see who ends up with better ideas . I think by Saturday at the GTG you’ll be back patting me . I don’t think you read anything I said but OK. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 DIT ripping back bong hits between the IPA's. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I don’t care if it’s 80 days away dude, it needs work. What I said wasn’t a lie. Are you and others just assuming it’s going to keep getting better. The everything is awesome crew. This is when everyone gets amped up and confused. Usually at the onset of a good pattern. All I said was that these visions of all snow and this thing keeping on moving offshore are not a lock and I stated what needs work. I never said it couldn’t happen, but there is a difference between expecting it to happen like some are, and being somewhat objective and breaking down what needs to happen. I still feel this is a CNE and NNE deal, but I think we mentioned many times that it could become more wintry here and stated why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Low levels are torched too when you have a low ripping into SE NY. Need this to not get yanked back to the west like that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2022 Author Share Posted December 9, 2022 50 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Considering it was 61 degrees and pouring on its progs here 2 days ago for the 16th I wouldn't put it past the GFS to say congrats Bermuda There is a limit w the primary that far N initially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Pattern changes are notoriously difficult to accurately predict — especially more than a week in advance. This is part of the reason for caution when you come across any specific predictions for snowstorms or intense cold snaps more than a few days in advance. “Models tend to prematurely predict pattern changes, and I think that this is a good example of that,” wrote Judah Cohen, director of seasonal forecasting at Atmospheric and Environmental Research, in a text message. Cohen noted that Europe responds more quickly to the negative phase of the NAO compared with the eastern United States. In that sense, he expects cold air to continue to affect Europe before taking aim at the Lower 48. As for the chances for significant snow in the eastern United States, Cohen said that “the payoff usually comes at the end of the pattern.” He added, “The best chance for a big snowfall is when the NAO is transitioning from negative to positive.” The Mid-Atlantic and Northeast still appear on track to turn more wintry during the second half of the month. As Christmas approaches, if you’re rooting for snow, waiting is often the hardest part. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Pattern changes are notoriously difficult to accurately predict — especially more than a week in advance. This is part of the reason for caution when you come across any specific predictions for snowstorms or intense cold snaps more than a few days in advance. “Models tend to prematurely predict pattern changes, and I think that this is a good example of that,” wrote Judah Cohen, director of seasonal forecasting at Atmospheric and Environmental Research, in a text message. Cohen noted that Europe responds more quickly to the negative phase of the NAO compared with the eastern United States. In that sense, he expects cold air to continue to affect Europe before taking aim at the Lower 48. As for the chances for significant snow in the eastern United States, Cohen said that “the payoff usually comes at the end of the pattern.” He added, “The best chance for a big snowfall is when the NAO is transitioning from negative to positive.” The Mid-Atlantic and Northeast still appear on track to turn more wintry during the second half of the month. As Christmas approaches, if you’re rooting for snow, waiting is often the hardest part. Judah 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I don’t care if it’s 80 days away dude, it needs work. What I said wasn’t a lie. Are you and others just assuming it’s going to keep getting better. The everything is awesome crew. Who said everything is awesome? Not one person. I don’t really think we get clobbered or anything by this potential. But that block is gaining strength in recent modeling…it’s not done trending/changing at all. Modeling gonna struggle with that. Would you want it to look great now? Would you….DUDE? Nobody is saying it’s gonna be a big snowstorm, but we have a long way to go until next Friday. A couple days back it was in Detroit…And you were whining close the shades(even this morning)…lol as you always do. You’ve been wrong on the pattern change when you jumped off the train last week, and over the weekend. You didn’t heed the advice of some of the pros and experienced folks on here..who explained their reasoning with science. But you went with the Debbie’s as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 So much anger 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Some in here need coddling and reassuring that everything is going to be alright. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: There is a limit w the primary that far N initially So far west and dying. But yea I guess. Many examples of primaries into Detroit with Buffalo 60 degrees while we dump. The bigger issue is antecedent air mass from top to bottom , strength and location of HP and dewpoint feed. Obviously so far out it could revert to a soueaster for all we know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: This is when everyone gets amped up and confused. Usually at the onset of a good pattern. All I said was that these visions of all snow and this thing keeping on moving offshore are not a lock and I stated what needs work. I never said it couldn’t happen, but there is a difference between expecting it to happen like some are, and being somewhat objective and breaking down what needs to happen. I still feel this is a CNE and NNE deal, but I think we mentioned many times that it could become more wintry here and stated why. I’m certainly not questioning you or your reasoning. I agree with your take. But thanks for telling us TBlizz it needs work 8 days out. No shit! This morning he said close the shades for the rest of the month…let’s see if he’s right on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: Some in here need coddling and reassuring that everything is going to be alright. Some are so defensive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 29 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I did . We’ll see who ends up with better ideas . I think by Saturday at the GTG you’ll be back patting me . spiking the football on day 8. good luck with your forecast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 1 minute ago, SJonesWX said: spiking the football on day 8. good luck with your forecast I’m still cleaning up from his screaming sou’easters. I just can’t take a raging snowstorm right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Some are so defensive. A few are, Need to have more patience here, Its going to snow, It always does. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 18z Euro looked pretty nice for CT Sun-Mon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Low levels are torched too when you have a low ripping into SE NY. Need this to not get yanked back to the west like that. Not that you don’t know this… But like this current run up to this week demonstrated with the lower tropospheric air mass handling, the models were significantly too warm in the mid range and have been correcting steadily colder. There’s nothing about that antecedent condition next week that strikes me as being able to moderate that air mass. Trust me. I would implore people assume a colder boundary layer with much more resistance than what you’re seeing in that GFS solution verbatim 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Who said everything is awesome? Not one person. I don’t really think we get clobbered or anything by this potential. But that block is gaining strength in recent modeling…it’s not done trending/changing at all. Modeling gonna struggle with that. Would you want it to look great now? Would you….DUDE? Nobody is saying it’s gonna be a big snowstorm, but we have a long way to go until next Friday. A couple days back it was in Detroit…And you were whining close the shades(even this morning)…lol as you always do. You’ve been wrong on the pattern change when you jumped off the train last week, and over the weekend. You didn’t heed the advice of some of the pros and experienced folks on here..who explained their reasoning with science. But you went with the Debbie’s as usual. I was wrong about close the shades? How much snow have you seen so far? scooter explained why this may not keep going in the correct direction. It’s great to see weenie snow maps at 300 hours, but let’s pump the brakes a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: This is when everyone gets amped up and confused. Usually at the onset of a good pattern. All I said was that these visions of all snow and this thing keeping on moving offshore are not a lock and I stated what needs work. I never said it couldn’t happen, but there is a difference between expecting it to happen like some are, and being somewhat objective and breaking down what needs to happen. I still feel this is a CNE and NNE deal, but I think we mentioned many times that it could become more wintry here and stated why. A lot of these threats are marginal to begin with on models. I’d definitely favor NNE until maybe Jan when climo becomes more favorable around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 40 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: My guess is this does move Southeast, but then tries to come Northwest again. This is all I am saying. What’s going to probably happen - and I agree by the way – is that as the mid-level forcing begins to concede to the NAO and comes east and south east …the surface low will initially start being modeled further north and west and inland …because that’s forcing is but then as we get closer the whole thing would then go back east again - Due to a combination of sensing the boundary layer resistance more clearly as it gets colder and closer in the model but also because the mid-level forcing is probably going to continue to crack tomorrow more so. So it’s kind of like a sinusoidal correction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: A lot of these threats are marginal to begin with on models. I’d definitely favor NNE until maybe Jan when climo becomes more favorable around here. After next week we in the game. Hell much of SNE could be later next week if this were to go near or SE of ACK. I’m just not sold yet. But the fact we are even talking about this compared to a few days ago is pretty cool. Things have trended better for Sunday afternoon and night and also later next week for the time being. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I was wrong about close the shades? How much snow have you seen so far? scooter explained why this may not keep going in the correct direction. It’s great to see weenie snow maps at 300 hours, but let’s pump the brakes a bit You said close the shades for the rest of the month. Believe me, I’m not expecting a burial this month. Nor am I an “everything is all right” person either. But before we make blanket statements on either side of the fence, why don’t we see how things play out over the next few weeks? I agree..pump the brakes in both directions is a good idea. So fair enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: What’s going to probably happen - and I agree by the way – is that as the mid-level forcing begins to concede to the NAO and comes east and south east …the surface low will initially start being modeled further north and west and inland …because that’s forcing is but then as we get closer the whole thing would then go back east again - Due to a combination of sensing the boundary layer resistance more clearly as it gets colder and closer in the model but also because the mid-level forcing is probably going to continue to crack tomorrow more so. So it’s kind of like a sinusoidal correction I know what you mean. Part of me hopes that this thing even if it does start is rain can sort of go back to Snow as the flow tips more to the Northeast with the mid levels passing south of us. Who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 11 minutes ago, SJonesWX said: spiking the football on day 8. good luck with your forecast Dudes calling warm 850’s and 950 temps from 7 days in advance. And self admitted on here .. he doesn’t even forecast anymore . He must be good ! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now