December 2022 Obs/Disc

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

So much anger

[CoastalWx]

I feel like people are also getting limited data on the free sites like 500mb height anomalies and trying to corroborate that with srfc temps. Can anyone take a guess what the srfc temps look like with this look??

 

[EastonSN+]

GEFS looks great!

[bwt3650]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I feel like people are also getting limited data on the free sites like 500mb height anomalies and trying to corroborate that with srfc temps. Can anyone take a guess what the srfc temps look like with this look??

 

Un-warm.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I feel like people are also getting limited data on the free sites like 500mb height anomalies and trying to corroborate that with srfc temps. Can anyone take a guess what the srfc temps look like with this look??

 

My guess is relatively cool with the cold bleeding down from central Canada and being pinned into place underneath the block.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Its not only about color shades on the H5 maps....its about the heights relative to the ambient envt....its tough to get warm with very high heights to your north, unless you have a raging PAC jet, which we do not in that image.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its not only about color shades on the H5 maps....its about the heights relative to the ambient envt....its tough to get warm with very high heights to your north, unless you have a raging PAC jet, which we do not in that image.

Cold to mint julip land as the late Bruce Schwoegler used to say.

 

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Cold to mint julip land as the late Bruce Schwoegler used to say.

 

lol...we're heading to ORD on the 8th.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Cold to mint julip land as the late Bruce Schwoegler used to say.

 

I'll comment a lot more once I have access to the data.....totally valid point on your part.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Cold to mint julip land as the late Bruce Schwoegler used to say.

 

If I’m reading it right Looks pretty average for All New England -2 to 1 over cape and tad higher over NE Maine 

warm anomalies as close as Nova Scotia +10 line And -5 line back in C Pa/ NY 

 

[Go Kart Mozart]

7 minutes ago, weathafella said:

lol...we're heading to ORD on the 8th.

Ha, I was thinking a trip to MSP would be nice.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

If I’m reading it right Looks pretty average for All New England -2 to 1 over cape and tad higher over NE Maine 

warm anomalies as close as Nova Scotia +10 line And -5 line back in C Pa/ NY 

 

I don't mean to take it verbatim...my point is that people are seeing warm height anomalies at 500 and assuming torch. I also don't want deep blues sitting over my head.  

[brooklynwx99]

not sure what some of the angst is about when we have an upcoming pattern that’ll probably look like this

what more can you ask for if you want large coastals? this is the blueprint 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I feel like people are also getting limited data on the free sites like 500mb height anomalies and trying to corroborate that with srfc temps. Can anyone take a guess what the srfc temps look like with this look??

 

The biggest pope torch you can imagine obviously. Sandals, pina colada’s, and beach volleyball. 

[Great Snow 1717]

1 hour ago, CT Rain said:

I wonder what the latest 1" on record is for BDL. We'll probably make a run at it. 

so are you saying you aren't on board the Winter Wonderland Express  for BN temps and AN snowfall in December???

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Not gonna lie....it's like a parallel universe in here sometimes. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Great Snow 1717 said:

so are you saying you aren't on board the Winter Wonderland Express  for BN temps and AN snowfall in December???

He's passively aggressively trolling Kev....can you come up with a marginally humorous meme for that?

[Typhoon Tip]

There’s also a subtle tendency to delay the onset of -EPO … which others seem to interpret as a zonal regression? It’s still a curvilinear flow around the Alaskan sector given more time, however. 

As far as the -EPO … it’s really kind of required to set the -NAO into retrograde d(amp) through complex/transitive wave transmission … I mean you can see the sequencing of the hemisphere spanning 10 or so days.  First the EPO —> some sort of Dec 7..8 trough ejection through the east —> big chunk of warm hgts/advection surge up the western wall of the semi permanent W Atlantic ridge, which migrates into the lower D Straight where it marries in and triggers repositions the the -NAO from the eastern toward the western limb of the domain.. It all started back in the C-NE Pacific in the mid range.  It’s fascinating really. How the PAC transmits a wave signal around the globe like that. 

…anyway with all those moving pieces going on over the next 7 to 10 days I mean it’s utterly in germane to even consider what a singular model guidance is illustrating on day 8 through 15+

but I get it… people are bored.  Plus there’s a little bit of addiction to excitement going on when it comes to the stuff that’s another discussion lol. All this stuff looks really intriguing but it doesn’t mean jack if we gotta wait 10 days …looking out the window and it looks like it does right now which is completely uninspired. So all that people have to talk about is really their addiction withdrawals lol

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He's passively aggressively trolling Kev....can you come up with a marginally humorous meme for that?

Do you mean while at the same time not upsetting some people???......nah I do not think that I can do that...that is a Mission Impossible type of request.

[WinterWolf]

15 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

not sure what some of the angst is about when we have an upcoming pattern that’ll probably look like this

what more can you ask for if you want large coastals? this is the blueprint 

Looks fabulous…just gotta be patient. 

[Typhoon Tip]

For what it’s worth… Probably nothing for this group but Saturday may just be very nice out of doors if it doesn’t get too windy.

By Sunday we have a really impressive negative EPO structure with a very intense cold plume channeling down the eastern front range of the Canadian Rockies towards Manitoba in this operational Euro run.  Insane gradient from the border states to Florida

[CoastalWx]

Man the EPS looks sweet in the 11-15. It's doing exactly what others have said...ridge retros and we pop a Rockies ridge with mean trough Great lakes. That's a good look. 

[SouthCoastMA]

From 11/13 through today, SSTs in Cape Cod bay dropped from 57° to 49°.  It's been a steady drop since the 'pattern change that never happenend'

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

For what it’s worth… Probably nothing for this group but Saturday may just be very nice out of doors if it doesn’t get too windy.

By Sunday we have a really impressive negative EPO structure with a very intense cold plume channeling down the eastern front range of the Canadian Rockies towards Manitoba in this operational Euro run.  Insane gradient from the border states to Florida

My yard work crucible pretty much ended this past weekend.....not too much left, but I took full advantage of the mild interludes.

[CoastalWx]

This is almost text book for a good storm. Ridge over Rockies. PV in Quebec with extension to it east..and also south. That trough on the mean extending south is a classic look for infusing s/w energy into the mean trough.

I know it's in la la land...but that's what you want to see.

 

[ORH_wxman]

The pattern change is going to go through multiple stages....when the block is first forming, we get the torch with a likely cutter or warmer type system going to our northwest (Dec 5-7) which actually feeds back into the block.....2nd, we get the initial cold push which still has higher heights in the south. This is what Tip was commenting on earlier with "Velocity" issue. This would be like in the Dec 8-12 time frame. We can get a system in this type of flow, but usually clippers and SWFEs.

Then finally, you get the higher heights in the south retrograding into the western plains and Rockies (post 12/12....heading toward mid-month) which is what Scooter was talking about above....that's more of a big dog look. That's a very good pattern for larger snow events for us. Hopefully it sets up and hopefully we cash in.

[weathafella]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Man the EPS looks sweet in the 11-15. It's doing exactly what others have said...ridge retros and we pop a Rockies ridge with mean trough Great lakes. That's a good look. 

Yup.   EPS is king today in weenieish progs.  GEFS was damned good too.  GEPS is tossed.

[ORH_wxman]

Here is the progression in 3 charts....first one is Dec 6, 2nd is Dec 9, and last one is Dec 13

 

 

[TalcottWx]

Weather team is mentioning heavy rain, isolated power outages on Wednesday 

[Superstorm93]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Here is the progression in 3 charts....first one is Dec 6, 2nd is Dec 9, and last one is Dec 13

 

 

 

I feel like we've seen this before...