December 2022 Obs/Disc

[Great Snow 1717]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I honestly liked that one.

I'm honored...

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro with a more widespread -SN snowfall. I can role with that. 

A nice little appetizer as we set the table for the main course(s).

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Gotta watch for some embedded bands too...the profile is kind of unstable under the shortwave. Very steep lapse rates above 800-850.

Soundings showed that on GFS. Definitely a sneaky band or two of heavier SN. But overall that depiction at least makes sense synoptically to me.

[ORH_wxman]

This is the type of setup you have to watch for an IVT/Norlun type band that hangs back after the main band of SN- moves through....you can see the isobars inverting back into SNE while at the same time you have very low H5 heights moving overhead to provide the instability.

[CoastalWx]

LOL, lets pull that low SW to give us WAA snow from Maine.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

At this point for late Sunday I wound anticipate flakes in the air at times and maybe a dusting To an inch East of ORH, 1-2 out toward river w a lolli to 3 by the Berks 

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is the type of setup you have to watch for an IVT/Norlun type band that hangs back after the main band of SN- moves through....you can see the isobars inverting back into SNE while at the same time you have very low H5 heights moving overhead to provide the instability.

That’s what I asked earlier. This setup should “hang back” long duration light snows 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

LOL, lets pull that low SW to give us WAA snow from Maine.

That blocking is crazy looking. We'd be having flocks of Amazon Parrots ripping into our backyards late next week if it weren't for that.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s what I asked earlier. This setup should “hang back” long duration light snows 

It might...but sometimes it will focus into a fairly narrow band....hence the NORLUN idea. But we won't know much about that potential until the event is really close. It could still trend more like the GFS and be more of a legit coastal. But my money is on the light snow with maybe a little bit of hangback in spots.

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

LOL, lets pull that low SW to give us WAA snow from Maine.

Advecting -15C 850s into BOS by Tuesday night

[40/70 Benchmark]

That Monday low really hangs out more on the 12z EURO....should help Friday.

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Advecting -15C 850s into BOS by Tuesday night

It impresses me just how bad all the guidance really was when it was day 4 to 7 range with regard to the 2 m temperature layout over the weekend as the NAO is doing that. And we get to see this correction as we’ve near that time. 18 Z Sunday on this GFS has a 34° temperature at Worcester with a dewpoint in the low 20s… Meanwhile up in Maine it’s in the low to mid 20s with two points in a single digits. These same regions were in the low 40s mid 30s with two points higher than that.  

It has a very significant correction complexion to this whole thing for anything that’s in this pattern of a blocky general hemisphere. I don’t trust the storm after that that we’ve been following that’s between 13.14 out by Chicago and 16-ish here later next week for that same reason. If we’re still exerting off of a nanny oh we’re going to have a completely different lower troposphere from Lake superior to the coastal waters of New England out in the mid range and the extended period

[40/70 Benchmark]

Friday is a snower for most of SNE...mark my words.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Look how much stronger the blocking is by the DS..and more cohesive.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It impresses me just how bad all the guidance really was when it was day 4 to 7 range with regard to the 2 m temperature layout over the weekend as the NAO is doing that. And we get to see this correction as we’ve near that time. 18 Z Sunday on this GFS has a 34° temperature at Worcester with a dewpoint in the low 20s… Meanwhile up in Maine it’s in the low to mid 20s with two points in a single digits. These same regions were in the low 40s mid 30s with two points higher than that.  

It has a very significant correction complexion to this whole thing for anything that’s in this pattern of a blocky general hemisphere. I don’t trust the storm after that that we’ve been following that’s between 13.14 out by Chicago and 16-ish here later next week for that same reason. If we’re still exerting off of a nanny oh we’re going to have a completely different lower troposphere from Lake superior to the coastal waters of New England out in the mid range and the extended period

Yes. I don't trust model guidance to handle this blocking well. We did mention that many times going back. I know you did. It's probably going to change again.

[CoastalWx]

Euro looks snowy Berks into nrn ORH county from the deal later next week. 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Friday is a snower for most of SNE...mark my words.

Not on this run I don't think...still looks a bit tucky for my liking....but we're still trending with miles to go.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Euro looks snowy Berks into nrn ORH county from the deal later next week. 

Keep correcting...

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Not on this run I don't think...still looks a bit tucky for my liking....but we're still trending with miles to go.

Yea, I mean in reality...not the run, but it is close.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Not on this run I don't think...still looks a bit tucky for my liking....but we're still trending with miles to go.

Yeah gets mild below 850...but probably a few inches at least in those areas that I previously mentioned to start.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah gets mild below 850...but probably a few inches at least in those areas that I previously mentioned to start.

Compare hour 180 over N Hudsons Bay to 00z

[CoastalWx]

Even if it went to rain, get H5 to go south, maybe a reach around frozen courtesy?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Even if it went to rain, get H5 to go south, maybe a reach around frozen courtesy?

Ok, Schowegler

[Damage In Tolland]

Gonna be a pretty siggy icestorm for some portions of SNE next week . Perfect time of year for it as they love December and with SE ridge push back and - PNA.. it’s ripe

[CoastalWx]

Deep erly flow hurts a bit in Dec. Would probably be awesome in many areas a month from now.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Deep erly flow hurts a bit in Dec. Would probably be awesome in many areas a month from now.

Once the models "See" the airmass better as we get closer, I'm sure we can finagle a Dec '92 type gradient over E MA. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Gonna be a pretty siggy manstorm for me next week . Perfect time of year to rain men as they love December and with me back arched after a nice long run and no shower. it’s ripe

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes. I don't trust model guidance to handle this blocking well. We did mention that many times going back. I know you did. It's probably going to change again.

Right… I think we mentioned over a week ago the ‘correction vector’ pointed colder and well … that 2 m is one of the many examples how that sort of verifies

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Once the models "See" the airmass better as we get closer, I'm sure we can finagle a Dec '92 type gradient over E MA. 

I guess I'd feel better if we weren't teetering at 0-1C at 850 and need a little wetbulbing to get it cooler. At least verbatim. We never had that parent low in the Midwest in 92. That helps warm it a tad. 

[CoastalWx]

Buuuuuut, if that block ended up a bit SW and you get cyclogenesis moving more to the E of where it is progged now, the flow turns more NE and better Ageo flow for SNE interior.