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December 2022 Obs/Disc


40/70 Benchmark
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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

What the hell is going on for 12/16? GGEM and GFS both have the 50/50 low getting pushed south into Maine and the GFS then pushes it into the waters east of NE, lol. Some crazy looks ahead of that system.

Yeah, squeeze play.  I like that primary is further S and should occlude allowing secondary to develop further S too.  Should be a better solution for Northeast.

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7 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This can still shift south. It’s a teeter totter line we are wobbling along 

Yeah well… I sort of hemmed myself into the ownership of the negative position on this thing and I did not mean for that. I use the word or rather the phrase “… The disappearance of… “Late last night and that’s not really what I meant. I didn’t mean that it was disappearing, as in not happening per se.

The intent was really that this is differentiating towards less impact so expecting less should be the expectation here. The synoptics surrounding this thing means that it’s an a -d(system state) 

But the other aspect…I think that we can fill in the area with strata and light synoptic precipitation and have the mean lift still missed the area to the south. There are disparate mechanics going on here for having a long fetched Northeast flow that has a moisture source concurrently taking place. It may be difficult to parse those two out? Because if that thing impacts the region it’s probably gonna be not significantly greater than what the other aspect would also produce

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1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Yeah, squeeze play.  I like that primary is further S and should occlude allowing secondary to develop further S too.  Should be a better solution for Northeast.

We need the "Day After Tomorrow" map that dendrite posted a few days ago. :lol:

 

 

Dec8_12zGFS150.png

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1 minute ago, Superstorm93 said:

Trend has been...not great 

184407aa-411c-476b-959d-dda8809da453.gif

Super amped solutions with widespread 12-18" of snow are not coming back. But the way to get sneaky warning snowfall will prob be from a stripe under good fronto....like the GFS had. Pretty cool that you can actually see what the PV lobe was doing on those huge solutions....it was retrograding further west so that the shortwave had room to amplify underneath it rather than staying to the northeast and acting as an inhibitor to amplification.

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Decent front ender for 12/16 over interior SNE (prob N&W of 495) on GFS. Coast is torching with onshore flow in that setup. But obviously that could change as we get closer. That high to the north is funneling a ton of dry polar air to help prolong the frozen over interior.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Decent front ender for 12/16 over interior SNE (prob N&W of 495) on GFS. Coast is torching with onshore flow in that setup. But obviously that could change as we get closer. That high to the north is funneling a ton of dry polar air to help prolong the frozen over interior.

If I somehow end up close enough to the ocean for mainly rain in that one, I will legit check myself in somewhere.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If I end up close enough to the ocean for mainly rain in that one, I will legit check myself in somewhere.

Lol....maybe wait until the pattern breaks down at least.....prob gonna be several more chances after 12/16.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Lol....maybe wait until the pattern breaks down at least.....prob gonna be several more chances after 12/16.

I know he doesn't want to hear this from me....but don't get your hopes up on something that is a stretch. I would approach it with that mantra. Possible, sure. But it needs some work. 

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