December 2022 Obs/Disc

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Take the under on temps this weekend too. 

I listen to WCBS in NYC on my way to work, calling for rain even to New Haven Sun night Monday. 

[tamarack]

51 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

… Seems to be a recurring theme that we start threads for winter storms that end up being more central in northern New England over the last couple three years doesn’t it?… 

Maybe for frequency, but the bigger storms are in SNE (or up in The County).  Three most recent winters, biggest snowfalls:

Season     BOS   BDL   ORH   MBY
2019-20    7.1     12.0    17.0    10.3
2020-21   12.7   16.9    16.5     9.6
2021-22   23.8    7.2    14.7    12.4

Four cutters in 11 days.  Is some suppression the next act?

 

[Ginx snewx]

Still time boys and girls.

 

[dendrite]

16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yea I just went month by month. BOSTON 11 inches 06-97 and 21 36/37

36-37 was 9.0"...best event was Novie

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

36-37 was 9.0"...best event was Novie

Novie is a winter month afterall.

[Typhoon Tip]

20 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Maybe for frequency, but the bigger storms are in SNE (or up in The County).  Three most recent winters, biggest snowfalls:

Season     BOS   BDL   ORH   MBY
2019-20    7.1     12.0    17.0    10.3
2020-21   12.7   16.9    16.5     9.6
2021-22   23.8    7.2    14.7    12.4

Four cutters in 11 days.  Is some suppression the next act?

 

If that’s true it fits … yeah. 

The pattern ‘maintenance’ events are more related to super synopsis - the ambient jets and storm track longer term tendencies.

Whereas ‘bombs’ are occurring because of local temporal, intra-scale restoring of mass fields … which are occurring because the abv where significantly stress. 

- true regardless of storm types, too. But with track and jets migrating N the ‘snow’ bombs inherently were S of in the stressed domain. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

26 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

If we can maintain the ULL vorticity dropping in over us as iT explodes over the Atlantic someone will hit the Norlun jackpot. Just has that familiar look

Agree...I was saying that yesterday.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Not a bad look on the NAM.

[Snowcrazed71]

I find it hilarious that the thought process is that the Winter is a failure. Well.. for one... The official start date is DECEMBER 21ST!!!!!  Lol.

With that said, yes.. I would agree that if the pattern change fails to materialize this month that I to will be very disappointed. However..... There are still 3 more months of Winter to go. 

 

[CoastalWx]

NAM looked like it would have some -SN into a lot of the area if one were to extrapolate. 

[Damage In Tolland]

A white landscape Monday morning for much of SNE enroute .

[Snowcrazed71]

8 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Not a bad look on the NAM.

Any images ( is this for Sunday/Monday )

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I find it hilarious that the thought process is that the Winter is a failure. Well.. for one... The official start date is DECEMBER 21ST!!!!!  Lol.

With that said, yes.. I would agree that if the pattern change fails to materialize this month that I to will be very disappointed. However..... There are still 3 more months of Winter to go. 

 

Who expressed that?

[Baroclinic Zone]

2 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Any images ( is this for Sunday/Monday )

Yes. NAM only goes out to 84hr. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Is this the same model that dumped 24” on us for the 12th….. 

It was the first to sniff it out even if it whiffs. While the others had no storm. 

[Snowcrazed71]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Who expressed that?

Not you. It's more the mood of some of the posts of the disappointment thus far. 

I'm just trying to make a point that things can change in an instant, and they do change every few days as far as the models go. 

Just trying to lift up some of those younger posters that are getting disappointed so far. It's all good

[WinterWolf]

9 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

It was the first to sniff it out even if it whiffs. While the others had no storm. 

Ya…I guess we have to give it(CNC)some credit for that, when the other modeling didn’t have a thing. Blind squirrel analogy…or perhaps some skill? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Snowcrazed71 said:

Not you. It's more the mood of some of the posts of the disappointment thus far. 

I'm just trying to make a point that things can change in an instant, and they do change every few days as far as the models go. 

Just trying to lift up some of those younger posters that are getting disappointed so far. It's all good

I know you weren't referring to me, I was just honestly asking because I haven't seen anyone imply that winter is over, frustration not withstanding.

[Typhoon Tip]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM looked like it would have some -SN into a lot of the area if one were to extrapolate. 

I’m still not fully convinced that we won’t get kind of a saturable inversion layer bunching up along the terrain in the interior off that long fetch east northeast flow pouring out of the NAO. That can be a gray grits kind of day with some flurries and then if there’s any OES smear.  We could do all this also at 37° …true but I think the 2 m temperature is trending colder at this time of year and all that.  it probably ends up closer to freezing?

[Snowcrazed71]

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I know you weren't referring to me, I was just honestly asking because I haven't seen anyone imply that winter is over, frustration not withstanding.

True.... Probably stirring up a little of my own frustrations..lol 

I could have worded it a bit differently. 

 

 

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I’m still not fully convinced that we won’t get kind of a saturable inversion layer bunching up along the terrain in the interior off that long fetch east northeast flow pouring out of the NAO. That can be a gray grits kind of day with some flurries and then if there’s any OES smear.  We could do all this also at 37° …true but I think the 2 m temperature is trending colder at this time of year and all that.  it probably ends up closer to freezing?

I'd say if the air saturates it should wet bulb down.  

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I'd say if the air saturates it should wet bulb down.  

Take under on temps....even NAM has it stuck in the upper 20s all day Sunday away from immediate coast. That's quite chilly from the northeast.

[CoastalWx]

14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I’m still not fully convinced that we won’t get kind of a saturable inversion layer bunching up along the terrain in the interior off that long fetch east northeast flow pouring out of the NAO. That can be a gray grits kind of day with some flurries and then if there’s any OES smear.  We could do all this also at 37° …true but I think the 2 m temperature is trending colder at this time of year and all that.  it probably ends up closer to freezing?

The interior may struggle for 30 if it's cloudy. But even at partly sunny, it's probably like 34/22 or something like that. This looks like one of those deals where the coastal front separates air that is in the upper 20s and snow vs temps of 36 with rain and catpaws. Maybe if it comes down harder it gets to 32 on the warmer side of the CF. It is very cold aloft. NAM has like -10C at 850 over CC Bay. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

The interior may struggle for 30 if it's cloudy. But even at partly sunny, it's probably like 34/22 or something like that. This looks like one of those deals where the coastal front separates air that is in the upper 20s and snow vs temps of 36 with rain and catpaws. Maybe if it comes down harder it gets to 32 on the warmer side of the CF. It is very cold aloft. NAM has like -10C at 850 over CC Bay. 

Yeah, precip type would be rate dependent for sure in coastal plain

[Sey-Mour Snow]

For those wondering about the prior light snowfalls in CT in November. 

[TalcottWx]

3 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Getting close to close the shades territory for SNE for the next 10 days or so 

Shades usually aren't even lifted until December 15th in coastal New England 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, TalcottWx said:

Shades usually aren't even lifted until December 15th in coastal New England 

100% , why would they even be open in SE mass or C.C and ya I lived there as a kid so it can happen on SWFE , otherwise you learn to be used to being tortured by Seeing The R/S line set up in Brockton to Easton /Norton

[ORH_wxman]

ICON and RGEM looks pretty good for widespread light snow over much of SNE for 12/11-12. We'll see what the globals do. The 06z EPS still has some pretty big members in there for 12/12. I don't think they are likely, but can't rule out a little surprise yet.

[TalcottWx]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes, though there could certainly be a heavier stripe somewhere. We'll just have to see how vigorous the shortwave is when it is knocking on our door. I wouldn't be forecasting much for our area right now (maybe more bullish in SW CT), but there is kind of a low-grade bust potential on that one.

What would you expect in my area? A little too far North and East.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

What would you expect in my area? A little too far North and East.

Tell the wife , that although it breaks your heart , you are gonna stay home Saturday (and miss her  family Gathering ) and prep/ protect  the home for a blizzard Sunday pm  , then just run out to the GTG