December 2022 Obs/Disc

[Baroclinic Zone]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

No I mean from the system itself. It’s a broad area of mid level saturation. 

Yeah, it doesn't look too bad for some light precip. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Yeah, it doesn't look too bad for some light precip. 

They’ll be a coastal front near BOS and down 95 give or take. Type of deal with a narrow area could get 1-2 on the cold side of CF. Too early to nail that down. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Canadian keeps everyone frozen more snow for CNE

[UnitedWx]

19 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Don't forget the sunscreen...

Always! I hate the sun, never understood roasting on the beach etc

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

They’ll be a coastal front near BOS and down 95 give or take. Type of deal with a narrow area could get 1-2 on the cold side of CF. Too early to nail that down. 

It’s a nice widespread 1-3 for most south of 90

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s a nice widespread 1-3 for most south of 90

Sure 

[Typhoon Tip]

If anyone is interested…

after spending a few moments observing the EPS and GEFS behavior across the eastern and northeastern pacific …downstream throughout North America, specifically pertaining to the 12th through 20th, a fairly coherent difference leaps out for me. It’s the handling over the EPO domain region. That difference is having a fairly significant instructional impact on how the pattern’s synoptic construct orients (crucially) itself downstream. 

The EPO is less significantly in the negative EPO phase state. 

Downstream over the continent it becomes a “seesaw” difference in forcing. The GEFs being stronger in the negative EPO phase, bottoms out the heights more in the southwest lat/lons; which is actually not a bad fit within its own reasoning. That would concomitantly lift the westerlies in  latitude over eastern North America.

The Pacific handling is still an issue here ladies and gentlemen…

At the same time, between day’s 7 through 11… the GEFs has taken to dispersing the negative NAO phase considerably - more quickly or more obviously than the EPO. 

It seems the GFS ‘species’ has been doing this with the NAO off and on - poor continuity - over the last week. I’m not sure I trust that part of this  

Both ensemble means carry a storm that winds up in the Plains between the 13th and 14th through the east and or SE Canada between the 15th and the 16th, but the upstream handling at large scales, and how it relays from the Pacific over North America , continues to be a problem, and the forcing mechanisms are critical to eventual system type/impacts.  

The GEF like hemisphere would promote more of a Great Lakes primary with only weak secondary … if only there because of boundary layer resistance in having cold air that is residually wedged east of Appalachia …etc. 

The EPO on the other hand… Having a flatter negative EPO digs less into southwest which lowers the heights over eastern North America. But while also maintaining a slightly more robust negative NAO structure out in time everything evolves further south and in fact there are a lot of EPO members, toward the 15th, like Scott was saying they end up with a pretty stem wound secondary/Miller B result. 

So either way there’s likely to be a significant winter storm affecting the 13th through the 17th of the month from the Plains to the north eastern US and we’re still in the process of figuring out exactly what storm type that will be and where. The two primary ensemble clusters that are typically used, their differences are crucially meaningful as to how all that lays out

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

15 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Canadian keeps everyone frozen more snow for CNE

Is this the same model that dumped 24” on us for the 12th….. 

[ORH_wxman]

35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I do wonder if we’ll see more of a broader shield of lighter snow from the mid levels. That’s a strong s/w. 

Yeah I will be going more bullish if this is the real track of the vort and shortwave.....

 

 

 

Now if it ends up south of this depiction, then I would fade the snowfall, but I'd be surprised if there isn't at least widespread steady light snow if it looks like that aloft. Even if it's just an inch or two.

[Ginx snewx]

36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I do wonder if we’ll see more of a broader shield of lighter snow from the mid levels. That’s a strong s/w. 

6Z EURO is very encouraging for a widespread SNE dealio

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Boston never had 2” of snow 

1936-37

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I will be going more bullish if this is the real track of the vort and shortwave.....

 

 

 

Now if it ends up south of this depiction, then I would fade the snowfall, but I'd be surprised if there isn't at least widespread steady light snow if it looks like that aloft. Even if it's just an inch or two.

Getting on the board again pre 15th would be excellent. 

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

6Z EURO is very encouraging for a widespread SNE dealio

Yeah, it looked good through 90. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro was pretty meh for NYC area but gfs more robust. 
 

As far as the 14-15 the ensembles definitely have more of an interesting look for the interior, especially for CNE and NNE.

This is pretty interesting on the EPS

 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

1936-37

That does not seem right. They did not have 6.4” in 06-07

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

This is pretty interesting on the EPS

 

I saw that. 

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

1936-37

That must just be DJF? BOS lowest for the whole cold season is 9.0"

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I will be going more bullish if this is the real track of the vort and shortwave.....

 

 

 

Now if it ends up south of this depiction, then I would fade the snowfall, but I'd be surprised if there isn't at least widespread steady light snow if it looks like that aloft. Even if it's just an inch or two.

You must mean "bullish" in terms of arial coverage of light snows....

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

That does not seem right. They did not have 6.4” in 06-07

I think it's just DJF....I recall BOS squandering their shot at futility in March 2007. I don't see the point in leaving March out though....that is a snowier month in some places than December is. I could sort of see an argument for discarding months like Oct/Nov/Apr.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

That must just be DJF? BOS lowest for the whole cold season is 9.0"

17.1” 06-07. Must be DJF

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I think it's just DJF....I recall BOS squandering their shot at futility in March 2007. I don't see the point in leaving March out though....that is a snowier month in some places than December is. I could sort of see an argument for discarding months like Oct/Nov/Apr.

Yeah season as in Met winter I guess? 

[ariof]

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

1936-37

What is this from? 

xmACIS shows 1936-7 at 9.0, 2011-2 at 9.3 for all-time lows.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is pretty interesting on the EPS

 

I mean the HP is nosing into FL prior to the storm arrival lol. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You must mean "bullish" in terms of arial coverage of light snows....

Yes. But need that s/w to maintain its “curl” if you will and to remain more north before it gets shunted ESE. 

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That must just be DJF? BOS lowest for the whole cold season is 9.0"

Yea I just went month by month. BOSTON 11 inches 06-97 and 21 36/37

[CoastalWx]

Take the under on temps this weekend too. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yea I just went month by month. BOSTON 11 inches 06-97 and 21 36/37

They had 17.1 total for winter 06-07.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You must mean "bullish" in terms of arial coverage of light snows....

Yes, though there could certainly be a heavier stripe somewhere. We'll just have to see how vigorous the shortwave is when it is knocking on our door. I wouldn't be forecasting much for our area right now (maybe more bullish in SW CT), but there is kind of a low-grade bust potential on that one.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Yes. But need that s/w to maintain its “curl” if you will and to remain more north before it gets shunted ESE. 

Yea, I think the upside is like a general 1-3" at this point, which is fine by me because I wasn't getting a major event, anyway. Would be nice to get festive, too.

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, ariof said:

What is this from? 

xmACIS shows 1936-7 at 9.0, 2011-2 at 9.3 for all-time lows.

Rain xmacis from Nov 1 to May 1 and it still doesn't match adding by month. IDK messed up

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes, though there could certainly be a heavier stripe somewhere. We'll just have to see how vigorous the shortwave is when it is knocking on our door. I wouldn't be forecasting much for our area right now (maybe more bullish in SW CT), but there is kind of a low-grade bust potential on that one.

If we can maintain the ULL vorticity dropping in over us as iT explodes over the Atlantic someone will hit the Norlun jackpot. Just has that familiar look