40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2022 Author Share Posted December 7, 2022 42 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah the big western PNA ridge isn’t happening I don’t think for now (maybe in January if Ray has the right idea?)….but I love that split flow -EPO/-PNA/weak -NAO look. The EPO ridge is pretty Far East too. We take this all day/every day in December. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: The agreement is now pretty damned good. EPS looks a little better overall because the AK ridge on the EPS is stronger....but the anomalies are mostly matching in the right spots to eachother now. Getting both suites to finally agree is huge. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: Getting both suites to finally agree is huge. Weird how both model suites had some pretty bad misses even like 7-10 days out.....GEFS was pretty much a disaster in handling the NAO block (EPS generally schooled it)....but GEFS schooled the EPS on the PAC look. The handling of the block isn't done either....I'd expect more trends with it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Weird how both model suites had some pretty bad misses even like 7-10 days out.....GEFS was pretty much a disaster in handling the NAO block (EPS generally schooled it)....but GEFS schooled the EPS on the PAC look. The handling of the block isn't done either....I'd expect more trends with it. seems like it's been strengthening, as it should with all of the wave breaking going on in the Atlantic. the GFS/GEFS was handling this aspect horrendously recently 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Delayed some…but not denied as some of us have been saying. Ginxy train reserves the right to toss traitor passengers off that sold out their tickets to the Pope and QgOmega and 1717 over the last 5-7 days. And you know who you are… 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Weird how both model suites had some pretty bad misses even like 7-10 days out.....GEFS was pretty much a disaster in handling the NAO block (EPS generally schooled it)....but GEFS schooled the EPS on the PAC look. The handling of the block isn't done either....I'd expect more trends with it. Just now, brooklynwx99 said: seems like it's been strengthening, as it should with all of the wave breaking going on in the Atlantic I don't want that to weaken much. This pattern coming up does not look like a suppression pattern...so I think we need the Atlantic to help make sure we don't have any lows ride up our fannies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The agreement is now pretty damned good. EPS looks a little better overall because the AK ridge on the EPS is stronger....but the anomalies are mostly matching in the right spots to eachother now. thank you 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Getting both suites to finally agree is huge. but now I have another question. which model should we tell DIT to toss? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Just now, SJonesWX said: thank you but now I have another question. which model should we tell DIT to toss? The KFS. 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2022 Author Share Posted December 7, 2022 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I don't want that to weaken much. This pattern coming up does not look like a suppression pattern...so I think we need the Atlantic to help make sure we don't have any lows ride up our fannies. Yea, I was never concerned about supression this month, aside from a rogue SW that gets sheared by some compression between NAO and RNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 12 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: seems like it's been strengthening, as it should with all of the wave breaking going on in the Atlantic. the GFS/GEFS was handling this aspect horrendously recently Easily the biggest potential model errors are the handling of the blocking up there over the next week. The strengthening of the 12/12 system offshore should theoretically feed back into that some and hold it tough as 12/15-16 approaches....we saw some trends of that today, but my gut says those trends are far from done. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: We take this all day/every day in December. Yes we do. I take you and you take me and we take snow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 6 minutes ago, SJonesWX said: thank you but now I have another question. which model should we tell DIT to toss? The KSCOOT has had tremendous struggles we can all agree 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Regarding the 12th, that's some strong CAA at like 925 from the northeast. Love to see it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 4 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Congrats Southbury CT on GFS. Wife's home town and she hates snow, provides confluence, only fitting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Mike Ekster is the creator of the term. We kept discussing on eastern in Dec 2007 on how to decribe all these events that kept walloping us aloft with southwest flow but stayed cold in the low levels and he said "they are basically just southwest flow events" and then we started using the term on there and it stuck. We miss Michael. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: holy shit Tasty look and in a reasonable window Very stormy as well with an endless supply of disturbances likely coming in. It feels like models did a 360 turn to what they showed a several days ago but just slightly delayed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Pretty good coupling too at 50mb. Always like seeing that for stability. Idk the nao isn't 29 sigmalevels below average 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 4 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: We miss Michael. Still forecasting at GYX, but hardly ever posting here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 58 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: All aboard the qg_omega / Great Snow of 1717 Express That was actually a tornado that derailed that train. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 18 minutes ago, tamarack said: Still forecasting at GYX, but hardly ever posting here. This is him now. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: That was actually a tornado that derailed that train. In January. So it is winter adjacent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 This is the kind of garbage BOX puts out in todays AFD. I mean what shows anything like this lol.. Tuesday though Friday... After a cool start to the week the trend is for slightly above normal temperatures with highs returning to the upper-40s if not the lower-50s. The global ensembles hint towards a more active period Wednesday night through Friday with a few shots of precipitation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 All aboard the weenie express https://youtu.be/d160GSGtPxY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: This is the kind of garbage BOX puts out in todays AFD. I mean what shows anything like this lol.. Tuesday though Friday... After a cool start to the week the trend is for slightly above normal temperatures with highs returning to the upper-40s if not the lower-50s. The global ensembles hint towards a more active period Wednesday night through Friday with a few shots of precipitation. Considering the vast array of forecasts and how under funded they are, I try to cut them some slack. Too much uncertainty and too little chance of reward trying to get into intimate detail with the general public this early. Will only result in confusion anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Just now, TalcottWx said: Considering the vast array of forecasts and how under funded they are, I try to cut them some slack. Too much uncertainty and too little chance of reward trying to get into intimate detail with the general public this early. Will only result in confusion anyway. Upper 40’s and 50’s middle and end of week? I mean 2-3 days ago ok sure. Nothing has anything like that now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 12 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: All aboard the weenie express https://youtu.be/d160GSGtPxY 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 18z gfs is pretty meh. Maybe something for far southwest ct 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 18z gfs really crunching 12/12. Gonna whiff most….SW Ct may do ok still on this run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 18z GFS clips SW CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 That block is really flexing more and more each run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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