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December 2022 Obs/Disc


40/70 Benchmark
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38 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

yeah I was going to say thought I remembered that from the Eastern days..

Mike Ekster is the creator of the term. We kept discussing on eastern in Dec 2007 on how to decribe all these events that kept walloping us aloft with southwest flow but stayed cold in the low levels and he said "they are basically just southwest flow events" and then we started using the term on there and it stuck.

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This is really close to a bigger hit CMC-style

0z-12z Euro trended more stout and slightly more west with ridge over Minnesota, and the diving shortwave is stronger

That 50-50 low feature is stronger so it's a balancing act, but we're not far off from a bigger hit

EPS trends last night making me more confident many areas in SNE see their first flakes at least (and my first season post)

30-year anniversary...

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To some of the comments above, I would take it as a huge step to get some OES flakes and mood snows going next week.  As long as we don't have to break out the shorts in December again, I will take this as a win / step to some more sensible winter weather.

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15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro trying to push the 50/50 PV lobe into N Maine after the 12/12 system. -20C 850 temps....maybe CAR will be cold afterall.  :lol:

Initially the airmass is much colder post 12/12 system but then that departing low curls up and retrogrades much more and  it Looks like it wraps Slightly milder air into NNE just before that 12/16 system approachEs but not sure the effect at hour 186

 

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2 hours ago, Hoth said:

As much as I’d like to believe these, I’m tossing simply on the basis that southern CT never gets warning snows before ORH. 

It happened in 1997....I think 12/11/97 (ironic its almost the same exact date is this upcoming system)....part of S CT got 5-8" while pike got skunked. South of pike into N CT got like 2-5".

ORH prior to that had a 5" event in November, but hadn't gotten warning snows yet. They did get 18 inches though 12 days later on 12/23/97.

I remember the 12/11 system though because it was originally forecasted to be 3-6" for ORH and then in the final day they kept cutting amounts and settled on 1-3" and we actually got zero. About 10 miles south had 2-3". I remember seeing cars driving north into the city on 290 with snow all over them and it made me furious. :lol:

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