December 2022 Obs/Disc

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Not sure if it has a seasonal forecasting impact but impressive nonetheless 

 

I haven't kept up in recent months, but back in the first weeks after the eruption, I recall reading that it didn't eject enough mass sulfates up into the stratosphere to really be anything close to something like a Pinatubo when it comes to climate impacts.

I'm guessing that is still the case....a lot of the material probably stayed under water and/or settled back to the earth as much of it never got high enough to get into the stratosphere.

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Not sure if it has a seasonal forecasting impact but impressive nonetheless 

 

Unrelated to meteorology per se but it seems that area of the world has a history of these kind of single pop detonation out of the blue… I.e. Krakatoa and the like. Tambora too. I’m not sure that Krakatoa or Tambora gave very many warning signs before hand? I’m not sure that.  But this thing just showed up. 

[WxWatcher007]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I haven't kept up in recent months, but back in the first weeks after the eruption, I recall reading that it didn't eject enough mass sulfates up into the stratosphere to really be anything close to something like a Pinatubo when it comes to climate impacts.

I'm guessing that is still the case....a lot of the material probably stayed under water and/or settled back to the earth as much of it never got high enough to get into the stratosphere.

Probably right. I wonder how big an impact we would have seen if this was above water. -1 to -1.5C globally?

[CoastalWx]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Probably right. I wonder how big an impact we would have seen if this was above water. -1 to -1.5C globally?

I saw the same that Will saw. I also saw that it injected a lot of water vapor into the stratosphere and some were wondering if that actually would help warm the atmosphere (troposphere) in the coming years...but that's the extent I have heard.

[powderfreak]

35 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

And people think Stowe doesn’t represent SNE , odd

and yes even the 90% of the forum staring at green grass for a month there was a pattern change from obscene warmth , that’s clear 

Yeah the north probably had one of the stronger changes too… from BTV 120 year all-time November max to 4-5” of snow even at BTV airport within like a week is quite a flip.

 

[weathafella]

If CMC ensembles today at 12z verify it’s congrats qq omega.

[MJO812]

Huge blocking on the gfs. Gfs is finally showing a loaded pattern.

[bwt3650]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

If CMC ensembles today at 12z verify it’s congrats qq omega.

but that's ok, because we are still shoveling last years CMC snows.

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Huge blocking on the gfs. Gfs is finally showing a loaded pattern.

But gives everyone nothing in the dailies lol

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

but that's ok, because we are still shoveling last years CMC snows.

I’m not talking op.    However in general it seems that cmc ensembles (GEPS) are on their own right now pending the rest of the 12z suite.

[TalcottWx]

My posts are heating up. Like Pete Davidson in his prime. Down with the sickness,

[WinterWolf]

12 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

but that's ok, because we are still shoveling last years CMC snows.

Ya That model isn’t the best…but maybe it finds the nut this time? Though I doubt it. 

[Spanks45]

18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Huge blocking on the gfs. Gfs is finally showing a loaded pattern.

It finally gets rid of the cutter city look, only to replace it with the congrats Gulf coast states look while we freeze the ponds over and solidify our brown yards. Hopefully the answer lies in between. Some SWFEs and clippers would be ok to start of the first couple weeks of December....

[Typhoon Tip]

Not sure I see what you guys are talking about reading the GEPS

… Looks like two cutters and a big Ohio high pressure as the major identifiable features through the end of

Oh cause I’m looking at the 00z version. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, Spanks45 said:

It finally gets rid of the cutter city look, only to replace it with the congrats Gulf coast states look while we freeze the ponds over and solidify our brown yards. Hopefully the answer lies in between. Some SWFEs and clippers would be ok to start of the first couple weeks of December....

Yes it establishes a better footprint there, but I think it’s also hinting at some of the compression/limitation associated with too much velocity that we were talking about earlier…

[Hazey]

You don't want to rely on a -NAO to save the winter but it is what it is.  We'll ride it and see what happens. Hopefully we can get a bit of snow down for the holidays for festive appeal.

[Spanks45]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yes it establishes a better footprint there, but I think it’s also hinting at some of the compression/limitation associated with too much velocity that we were talking about earlier…

We could use some blocking to our northeast to slow the pattern down a bit. Otherwise it's the paper shredder....

[Ginx snewx]

3 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

no, not really. these retrograding Scandinavian blocking events are usually picked up at range just like most anomalous weather events. March 2018 was modeled at 10-15 days out and never waivered

there are definitely some similarities between the two blocking events:

• initial SE ridging that gets squashed 
• a strong Aleutian high
• western trough
• Plains ridging that eventually retrogrades to the Rockies, leading to a trough over the east and a favorable pattern for larger storms 

this is kind of what I expect to happen here, but every setup is different

Yea I posted a March 18 map several pages back.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

The party starts late Dec for most. Until then, a random gtg or two for the interior. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The party starts late Dec for most. Until then, a random gtg or two for the interior. 

From relaxation to Blue balls ?

[CoastalWx]

I actually like the GEM ensembles better than the GEFS verbatim lol.

[George001]

2 minutes ago, Hazey said:

You don't want to rely on a -NAO to save the winter but it is what it is.  We'll ride it and see what happens. Hopefully we can get a bit of snow down for the holidays for festive appeal.

With La Niña especially stronger ones we need a -NAO otherwise everything will cut. La Niña and a raging positive NAO is a disaster, that’s how you end up with 2011-2012. The flip side of that though is when you do get a really strong -NAO, you would rather have a powerful Nina to offset the suppression risk. In my opinion the strength of the La Niña actually helped us in 2010-2011, it made it so instead of the mid Atlantic getting clobbered New England got clobbered. 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 were both strong -nao winters, but 2009-2010 was a strong Nino and 2010-2011 was a strong Nina. My area got more than double the snowfall totals in 2010-2011 than 2009-2010.

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, George001 said:

With La Niña especially stronger ones we need a -NAO otherwise everything will cut. La Niña and a raging positive NAO is a disaster, that’s how you end up with 2011-2012. The flip side of that though is when you do get a really strong -NAO, you would rather have a powerful Nina to offset the suppression risk. In my opinion the strength of the La Niña actually helped us in 2010-2011, it made it so instead of the mid Atlantic getting clobbered New England got clobbered. 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 were both strong -nao winters, but 2009-2010 was a strong Nino and 2010-2011 was a strong Nina. My area got more than double the snowfall totals in 2010-2011 than 2009-2010.

Has the MA ever been snow wise ground zero in a nina?   Maybe 1995-96 but that was widespread wealth.

[weathafella]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I actually like the GEM ensembles better than the GEFS verbatim lol.

I dunno....12z GEFS look pretty good out past 300 hours so far.   End of the GEPS looked like dogshit to me.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

From relaxation to Blue balls ?

Lol. Most likely even with a party pattern in late Dec, some will miss out.

[Snowcrazed71]

Just another article that was written last night again on the upcoming pattern and what they're thinking is going to happen for the upcoming Winter season. Again, very positive for us to have an active winter here in the east. 

https://justinweather.com/2022/11/27/how-the-winter-weather-pattern-may-develop-in-early-december/

[dryslot]

I don't see anything for at least the next 2-3 weeks for wintry stuff of any significance and that may even be a reach.

[weathafella]

End of today’s GEPS:

 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

What a GD disaster . Had a feeling 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I don't see anything for at least the next 2-3 weeks for wintry stuff of any significance and that may even be a reach.

Well, at least the relaxation part of the pattern change looks to over produce from sne to Maine