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December 2022 Obs/Disc


40/70 Benchmark
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20 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

to put into further perspective how bad of a miss this is, here are the changes by day 10:

ezgif-5-e76118727d.thumb.gif.cafc4f9e57dd79959a0f12467fb5fe9a.gif

 

the stronger 50/50 leads to the cutter getting shunted slightly south, which leads to WAA right into the Davis Strait that amplifies blocking throughout the pole. I think the reason for the GEFS's crappy presentation before was due to the complete mishandling of this feature

That's why I'm just gonna stick to the 5 day on op and no more than 7 on ensembles

The evolution of the system on the 12th will play a role in the following systems. 

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1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

absolutely comical for one model cycle. this is why we were saying not to worry for the 15th onward. the models are adjusting to the favorable base state 

ezgif-1-b27d15e82a.thumb.gif.ee72582609f16b1df24e187d7b18cfa4.gif

All model guidance have shifted quite a bit, but I think the overall sentiment has been post 14-15 for awhile.

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1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

It's our bread and butter.  I'm thinking 40-60% of what you and I get for annual snowfall comes from them.

 

But the term itself is really just an AmWx (and Eastern before that) thing

yeah I was going to say thought I remembered that from the Eastern days..

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s a Davis . It’s accurate . I’m very close to Bald Hill as you know having been here .

What do the three other gauges in S Wey measure so you can report your total?

 

The data is in front of you. Your tipper getting to tipsy?

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