December 2022 Obs/Disc

[brooklynwx99]

this is a pretty spectacular model fail by the GFS in the mid-range over the N ATL... completely misses the formation of a massive 50/50 

this obviously has big implications on both the impacts of the next system and the evolution of the block as a whole

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Teetering? 

Hopefully it misses, but is still strong enough to alter 12/15

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, UnitedWx said:

All in now?

Nyet

[Great Snow 1717]

22 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Right…I’ve been shoveling cmc snow maps in wct since 2012. 

Snow maps:

Actual:

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Great Snow 1717 said:

Snow maps:

Actual:

Nobody can get enough of those...keep 'em coming

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Nobody can get enough of those...keep 'em coming

Sorry it's the holiday season and I am besieged with requests for memes from people on other forums..

[HoarfrostHubb]

36 minutes ago, ariof said:

We should probably start a glossary of terms used in this thread so n00bs can read a sentence like "it looked like a SWFE but then we got Leoned" and make some sense of it. (This might already exist.)

We used to have a thread with that... I will see if I can find it

[HoarfrostHubb]

20 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

SWFE is like a made up word isn't it? It's a good one, but I don't think it's an actual meteorological term. 

It's our bread and butter.  I'm thinking 40-60% of what you and I get for annual snowfall comes from them.

 

But the term itself is really just an AmWx (and Eastern before that) thing

[Spanks45]

CMC still seems to be all in....Pretty sure it was the first to pick up on this threat? As many have said, still shoveling CMC modeled snow from last year. At least other models are showing some form of snow at this point. Will that block mean, congrats DC?

[kdxken]

25 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

it'll be really interesting to see today's 12z runs given the trends that we've seen over the last model cycle wrt the possible event on the 12th. i wasn't too hot on this event yesterday given the lack of support, but there's been a pretty dramatic trend towards more amplification given a farther W Plains ridge, which we can attribute to stronger blocking towards Greenland

certainly not time to lock anything in at this point, but I think it's safe to say that modeling has made a large trend towards a more amplified solution like the CMC... obviously the CMC itself is the highest ceiling outcome, but with a 1040-50 antecedent HP in Canada, it would certainly be cold enough along with a very low sun angle. obviously, this early in the year, slightly inland is favored

You do a great job. Keep it coming and thank you.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Congrats SW CT. Looks mainly dry elsewhere 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, kdxken said:

You do a great job. Keep it coming and thank you.

Thanks and will do 

[CoastalWx]

Canadian tries a bit more of a CCB. Still a south of pike deal..but it's close.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Canadian tries a bit more of a CCB. Still a south of pike deal..but it's close.

Ray will love this 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Temps look borderline here, but if it’s a legit storm, it would probably be okay.

[George001]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Canadian tries a bit more of a CCB. Still a south of pike deal..but it's close.

I’d like to see that northern piece dive in earlier like the 12z yesterday

[CoastalWx]

Just now, George001 said:

I’d like to see that northern piece dive in earlier like the 12z yesterday

There is a small room to work with. That s/w causing cyclogenesis is a big focus, but there is an ULL pushing SSW in eastern Canada. That tries to push this system ESE. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There is a small room to work with. That s/w causing cyclogenesis is a big focus, but there is an ULL pushing SSW in eastern Canada. That tries to push this system ESE. 

Yea, that is what I focused on instead of the ridge location that Brooklyn did.

[ROOSTA]

Stakes rising with every model run. In years past many a threat has come and gone. I'm getting antsy!
Seems the time invested (Climo Winter) 3 months' worth of... just doesn't seem to pay off. 
One can surmise "winter" is a month's timeframe. Early Jan. to mid Feb., and for myself it's always been the chase, still holding on to my bias.
I'm ready, going forth (curse of death) may "we" all get the fix we deserve and want.

[ORH_wxman]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There is a small room to work with. That s/w causing cyclogenesis is a big focus, but there is an ULL pushing SSW in eastern Canada. That tries to push this system ESE. 

Still 4.5-5 days out....everyone should remember that. Lots of room to move either direction. The hedge is south because of the steroid Davis Strait block pushing the 50/50 ULL S or SW. But it could easily come in more amped too on future runs if there is a bit more phasing of energy out to our west.

[brooklynwx99]

29 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is a pretty spectacular model fail by the GFS in the mid-range over the N ATL... completely misses the formation of a massive 50/50 

this obviously has big implications on both the impacts of the next system and the evolution of the block as a whole

to put into further perspective how bad of a miss this is, here are the changes by day 10:

 

the stronger 50/50 leads to the cutter getting shunted slightly south, which leads to WAA right into the Davis Strait that amplifies blocking throughout the pole. I think the reason for the GEFS's crappy presentation before was due to the complete mishandling of this feature

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

15 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Just thinking about that 

Meh. It’s a precarious setup. I’ll wait until Saturday for any prep work.

[Hoth]

As much as I’d like to believe these, I’m tossing simply on the basis that southern CT never gets warning snows before ORH. 

[CoastalWx]

Still cutterish on the GFS.

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We may end up with an inverted trough on Monday, too (yay)

I was just thinking about the INV in SWCT that kicked off 2011

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

I was just thinking about the INV in SWCT that kicked off 2015

2011?

[Damage In Tolland]

Let’s hope this doesn’t end up south trending to Philly and BWI. That is one of several possibilities 

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

2011?

Yea Freudian slip

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Let’s hope this doesn’t end up south trending to Philly and BWI. That is one of several possibilities 

Yesterday you were saying no accumulation until 12/20. Today you are worrying about snow melting and suppression depression   This hobby is hard on your type of personality isn't it.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Yesterday you were saying no accumulation until 12/20. Today you are worrying about snow melting and suppression depression   This hobby is hard on your type of personality isn't it.

What type might that be Dr?