Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You know my weak spots hahahaha That would eat my soul away in short order Oh yes I do The tantrum you’d throw would be fantastic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2022 Author Share Posted December 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: I was thinking 36" tolland to Talcott to ORH. Maybe 12" Methuen. Wet rain S Weymo Nuts sheared to shreds by female confluence? Bravado out to sea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: I was thinking 36" tolland to Talcott to ORH. Maybe 12" Methuen. Wet rain S Weymo Now that you're below sea level, gonna be tough seeing dark storm clouds to the east and dim sun in Simsbury. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Right…I’ve been shoveling cmc snow maps in wct since 2012. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2022 Author Share Posted December 7, 2022 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Right…I’ve been shoveling cmc snow maps in wct since 2012. Its not about the amounts it showed, but the overall conceivable trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 When I drive to work in the morning I need to take 15 min to decompress so I don't die going up and down in elevation so quickly. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 it'll be really interesting to see today's 12z runs given the trends that we've seen over the last model cycle wrt the possible event on the 12th. i wasn't too hot on this event yesterday given the lack of support, but there's been a pretty dramatic trend towards more amplification given a farther W Plains ridge, which we can attribute to stronger blocking towards Greenland certainly not time to lock anything in at this point, but I think it's safe to say that modeling has made a large trend towards a more amplified solution like the CMC... obviously the CMC itself is the highest ceiling outcome, but with a 1040-50 antecedent HP in Canada, it would certainly be cold enough along with a very low sun angle. obviously, this early in the year, slightly inland is favored 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 SWFE is like a made up word isn't it? It's a good one, but I don't think it's an actual meteorological term. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2022 Author Share Posted December 7, 2022 32 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Main difference I see is that the low near NF is a bit further away on the GEM, which maybe allows for faster amplification of coastal. 4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: it'll be really interesting to see today's 12z runs given the trends that we've seen over the last model cycle wrt the possible event on the 12th. i wasn't too hot on this event yesterday given the lack of support, but there's been a pretty dramatic trend towards more amplification given a farther W Plains ridge, which we can attribute to stronger blocking towards Greenland certainly not time to lock anything in at this point, but I think it's safe to say that modeling has made a large trend towards a more amplified solution like the CMC... obviously the CMC itself is the highest ceiling outcome, but with a 1040-50 antecedent HP in Canada, it would certainly be cold enough along with a very low sun angle. obviously, this early in the year, slightly inland is favored You are correct. I missed that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: certainly not time to lock anything in at this point, but I think it's safe to say that modeling has made a large trend towards a more amplified solution like the CMC... obviously the CMC itself is the highest ceiling outcome, but with a 1040-50 antecedent HP in Canada, it would certainly be cold enough along with a very low sun angle. obviously, this early in the year, slightly inland is favored One concern I have with that stout high is it's going to be supplying a quite a bit of dry air to the north. This could really be a no-win situation event for most. If the storm track is farther south (which obviously is good for colder air) the northern edge of the precip shield could get destroyed with dry air. If the storm track is farther north you get increased moisture, but now you're talking about profile concerns (especially towards the coast). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Congrats Southbury CT on GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Just now, weatherwiz said: One concern I have with that stout high is it's going to be supplying a quite a bit of dry air to the north. This could really be a no-win situation event for most. If the storm track is farther south (which obviously is good for colder air) the northern edge of the precip shield could get destroyed with dry air. If the storm track is farther north you get increased moisture, but now you're talking about profile concerns (especially towards the coast). yeah this event definitely favors SNE... mainly towards CT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 GFS is stronger with 12/11-12/12 shortwave but its fighting stronger confluence too. It's a good hit for CT, but eastern peeps struggle to saturate. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its not about the amounts it showed, but the overall conceivable trend. True but it’s a Thread the needle setup so I’m not buying any trend or solution until inside 72hrs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS is stronger with 12/11-12/12 shortwave but its fighting stronger confluence too. It's a good hit for CT, but eastern peeps struggle to saturate. I saw that ULL slide south...that thing has been playing games with models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: yeah this event definitely favors SNE... mainly towards CT agreed...I think if this event pans out it is going to favor CT into RI and portions of interior SE MA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Is a SWFE the same as the famed “Alberta Clipper”? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2022 Author Share Posted December 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: yeah this event definitely favors SNE... mainly towards CT 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS is stronger with 12/11-12/12 shortwave but its fighting stronger confluence too. It's a good hit for CT, but eastern peeps struggle to saturate. Just unreal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS is stronger with 12/11-12/12 shortwave but its fighting stronger confluence too. It's a good hit for CT, but eastern peeps struggle to saturate. This is what is going to be the biggest PITA. Models struggle with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2022 Author Share Posted December 7, 2022 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: agreed...I think if this event pans out it is going to favor CT into RI and portions of interior SE MA Stunner. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Congrats Southbury CT on GFS. Local man seen revving his snowblower today. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Stunner. Bunner 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Well nice to see something formidable anyways. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Congrats Southbury CT on GFS. Ya that’s sick here … probably be a great elevation event too. Borderline temps.. I’ve never seen a precip layout like that.. Let’s see how it trends have 96 hours til game time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Local man seen revving his snowblower today. Just thinking about that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Now that you're below sea level, gonna be tough seeing dark storm clouds to the east and dim sun in Simsbury. Below sea level LOL! Seriously though this area does better than most in CT in many marginal storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2022 Author Share Posted December 7, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Well nice to see something formidable anyways. Yea, formidable showing of the movie Groundhog Day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, formidable showing of the movie Groundhog Day. Teetering? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Snowmap time! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Snowmap time! All in now? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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