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December 2022 Obs/Disc


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FWIW I saw some clusters (think of these as groups of ensemble members with similar outcomes) that are now showing more of a SWFE or even redeveloping look for that thing on the 14th. It still might be dicey outside of CNE/NNE...but something to watch if we can get that deal on the 12th, to come in stronger. 

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

FWIW I saw some clusters (think of these as groups of ensemble members with similar outcomes) that are now showing more of a SWFE or even redeveloping look for that thing on the 14th. It still might be dicey outside of CNE/NNE...but something to watch if we can get that deal on the 12th, to come in stronger. 

I don't think its done trending. Folks brushed myself and a few others off when we gave some credence to the CMC yesterday (not to that degree), but this is what happens with blocks....you get faster corrections with shorter lead times.

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

FWIW I saw some clusters (think of these as groups of ensemble members with similar outcomes) that are now showing more of a SWFE or even redeveloping look for that thing on the 14th. It still might be dicey outside of CNE/NNE...but something to watch if we can get that deal on the 12th, to come in stronger. 

You can see it on the individual ensemble map....there's a cluster of redevelopers

 

Dec7_00zEPS216.png

Dec7_00zEPS228.png

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

FWIW I saw some clusters (think of these as groups of ensemble members with similar outcomes) that are now showing more of a SWFE or even redeveloping look for that thing on the 14th. It still might be dicey outside of CNE/NNE...but something to watch if we can get that deal on the 12th, to come in stronger. 

Does it mild up again late next week and weekend?

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37 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

Omg, the house would just start popping every night. Some were really loud and intense. The snow would get really dry and squeaky and the inside of your nose would just freeze up instantly 

When we lived in Fort Kent, those -30 and colder nights would set the drywall nails to popping.  In more recent construction the drywall is fastened with screws, which probably reduces the percussion symphony.

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Does it mild up again late next week and weekend?

It looks colder behind the 12/15-16 system....doesn't look downright frigid at the moment, but a generally seasonably cold pattern. When the EPO ridge spikes like that though, there's always a chance we get an arctic shot, even if it's temporary. But right now, my money would be on a bit below normal temps when you have a split flow -PNA/-EPO/weak -NAO.

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well that depends if it cuts or not. Otherwise the warm stuff is over soon. 

Yea, we are in the timeframe now where any warmups would be shorter term due to wave-breaking from unfavorable tracks, rather than a hostile overall longwave pattern.

The latter is done for at least about a month.

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