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December 2022 Obs/Disc


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45 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Doesn’t it seem odd that modeling is showing two big storms within 3 days of each other next week? That doesn’t seem realistic. I wonder if we see things morph into one longer duration storm ptype and track TBD

From your lips to God's ears. I would love to have a long duration snow storm. We haven't seen one of those in quite a while. But I'll take two separate ones too, I don't want to be too greedy lol

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Btw .. we have gotten 1.35 so far. There is supposed to be another round this afternoon..so I'm sure I will add to my total. 

Also, both are METs in Connecticut. Are talking about the storm chance for Sunday into Monday. They said it kind of appeared out of nowhere. As far as the one dropping down from the Great lakes. It's Wednesday, so let's hope it stays on the maps. It's kind of exciting to see that the Canadian still has it in a pretty similar area as it had it for the last many runs

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32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s here. But in general everyone overrates the nao. Yes it’s good for biggies etc., but typically overhyped. In New England we can do fine without it.  It does allow you to get away with certain things when the Pacific sucks. Blocking typically forces lows  under us.

Yeah, the NAO blocks are most useful when the PAC is bad. IF 12/12 and 12/15 work out, it will be because of the NAO....the bad PAC would otherwise send both systems into James Bay....and 12/15 still might do that, we'll see.

The LR looks nice because even though the steroid block is gone, the NAO is still negative. Lots of weakness up there, which helps out some...esp with a more favorable PAC.

 

I don't think we're going to get a +PNA though like some were hoping...at least not prior to Xmas IMHO. It looks to me like still a -PNA but it is split flow with the -EPO....that, combined with a weak -NAO, is pretty nice. You don' have this massively phased trough out west due to split flow....so even if troughs dig into southern CA, you still have the northern stream coming down from NW Canada/AK and then the weak -NAO keeping heights in check over far SE Canada.

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27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

6z EPS is pretty close to a good solution on the 12th. That H5 low is pretty far north which to me may mean the qpf shield would be as well.

Def getting closer but most are still a miss. Keep it trending though.

 

 

Dec7_06zEPS126.png

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55 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

South is more likely than north given blocking

Could also end up being a shredder 

Sure. Maybe. I mean the axis for the block on the 12th is more toward Iceland, but there's a ridge extension down into the US with the s/w in question kinda undercutting it. Then you have a potent little 60/60 ULL that cuts through the block and slowly meanders just to our NE. So there's still some subtle features to iron out. A little less ridging to the north or a stronger s/w and it wouldn't be too difficult for CNE to steal. Odds are obviously against it though. I'm only expecting flurries at best with all of that dry air in the mid levels trying to advect in from the NE.

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27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah, the NAO blocks are most useful when the PAC is bad. IF 12/12 and 12/15 work out, it will be because of the NAO....the bad PAC would otherwise send both systems into James Bay....and 12/15 still might do that, we'll see.

The LR looks nice because even though the steroid block is gone, the NAO is still negative. Lots of weakness up there, which helps out some...esp with a more favorable PAC.

 

I don't think we're going to get a +PNA though like some were hoping...at least not prior to Xmas IMHO. It looks to me like still a -PNA but it is split flow with the -EPO....that, combined with a weak -NAO, is pretty nice. You don' have this massively phased trough out west due to split flow....so even if troughs dig into southern CA, you still have the northern stream coming down from NW Canada/AK and then the weak -NAO keeping heights in check over far SE Canada.

Up here in particular, we hear you.

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49 degrees, good consistent wind gusts, breaks of sun...had a huge rainbow in the back yard. I'll take any help I can get with the heating bills- last winter up here we had a ridiculous stretch of cold weather- a long string of at least -20 for lows. -30s for lows was common. I think stations up here and north were hitting the -40s at times.

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3 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

49 degrees, good consistent wind gusts, breaks of sun...had a huge rainbow in the back yard. I'll take any help I can get with the heating bills- last winter up here we had a ridiculous stretch of cold weather- a long string of at least -20 for lows. -30s for lows was common. I think stations up here and north were hitting the -40s at times.

Love those crackling snot freezing nights with diamond dust falling on a full moon lit landscape. 

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44 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah, the NAO blocks are most useful when the PAC is bad. IF 12/12 and 12/15 work out, it will be because of the NAO....the bad PAC would otherwise send both systems into James Bay....and 12/15 still might do that, we'll see.

The LR looks nice because even though the steroid block is gone, the NAO is still negative. Lots of weakness up there, which helps out some...esp with a more favorable PAC.

 

I don't think we're going to get a +PNA though like some were hoping...at least not prior to Xmas IMHO. It looks to me like still a -PNA but it is split flow with the -EPO....that, combined with a weak -NAO, is pretty nice. You don' have this massively phased trough out west due to split flow....so even if troughs dig into southern CA, you still have the northern stream coming down from NW Canada/AK and then the weak -NAO keeping heights in check over far SE Canada.

Agree on that...been stressing that all along. But RNA with split flow -EPO and neg NAO is an absolutely delicious pattern for us, nonetheless.

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3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Love those crackling snot freezing nights with diamond dust falling on a full moon lit landscape. 

Omg, the house would just start popping every night. Some were really loud and intense. The snow would get really dry and squeaky and the inside of your nose would just freeze up instantly 

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