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December 2022 Obs/Disc


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21 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

I am wondering if maybe, perhaps, just a little, we let the negative nancys get to us and we should all know better????

Lol I’ve been posting objectively

I’m just looking for something to track that isn’t rains past Stowe VT. I don’t have a high bar 
 

My biggest concern is wether you will be able to make it to the GTG -

the money line is +325, so the sharpes say no

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For the 12’th 6z GEFS May look a bit better then 0z GEFS but one problem is 0z GEFS didn’t look remotely like the 0z op storm run looking at the GEPS they didn’t seem to support the OP that well , or to put it this way the OP looks like it would have been the best ens member 

gonna need things to come around much more , they did move in the right direction it seems 

most ens guidance currently has a Low well SE of us , it’s made strides from no storm to a storm but the track on ENS needs another 100 miles NW I think 

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16 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Lol I’ve been posting objectively

I’m just looking for something to track that isn’t rains past Stowe VT. I don’t have a high bar 
 

My biggest concern is wether you will be able to make it to the GTG -

the money line is +325, so the sharpes say no

Definitely not calling you out, to clarify. The odds are stacked against me for sure. But I am hoping James White picks it up in the second half.

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25 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

For the 12’th 6z GEFS May look a bit better then 0z GEFS but one problem is 0z GEFS didn’t look remotely like the 0z op storm run looking at the GEPS they didn’t seem to support the OP that well , or to put it this way the OP looks like it would have been the best ens member 

gonna need things to come around much more , they did move in the right direction it seems 

most ens guidance currently has a Low well SE of us , it’s made strides from no storm to a storm but the track on ENS needs another 100 miles NW I think 

Very strong upper level vorticity means at minimum measurable hopefully slows down and dumps more. First real threat of the season. Then we watch for a SWFE. Let's keep that 1048 HP in place.

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Trend overnight for 12/12 was pretty strong….cross-guidance sig on that. I’d like to see another one at 12z today though before taking it a bit more seriously. 
 

There’s def some potential there though. Due to the blocked flow, something forming and sliding to our south could be somewhat slow moving. 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Doesn’t it seem odd that modeling is showing two big storms within 3 days of each other next week? That doesn’t seem realistic. I wonder if we see things morph into one longer duration storm ptype and track TBD

2-3 days is plenty of time between storms. It would be more unusual if it was under 36 hours between them. 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

2-3 days is plenty of time between storms. It would be more unusual if it was under 36 hours between them. 

But I was thinking more along lines like if Monday even happens and lingers into Tuesday .. the next one is shown to hit Wednesday. Just seemed awfully close together . Chaotic for sure 

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51 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We watch the 12th.

 

41 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Trend overnight for 12/12 was pretty strong….cross-guidance sig on that. I’d like to see another one at 12z today though before taking it a bit more seriously. 
 

There’s def some potential there though. Due to the blocked flow, something forming and sliding to our south could be somewhat slow moving. 

You guys never wavered. Still within 10-15 day range. Some said blocking was gone yesterday. 

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1 minute ago, TalcottWx said:

 

You guys never wavered. Still within 10-15 day range. Some said blocking was gone yesterday. 

It goes away after day 11 or so. Pacific driving the bus and takes over after that time. Still some small ridging in Greenland but the -NAO is about gone then. 
 

Speaking of, still some big run to run changes but the overall theme is a good look for us imo. Is it textbook? No…..but I’ll take it.

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2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It is gone though. Or will be by the time we actually get a favorable look.

It’s here. But in general everyone overrates the nao. Yes it’s good for biggies etc., but typically overhyped. In New England we can do fine without it.  It does allow you to get away with certain things when the Pacific sucks. Blocking typically forces lows  under us.

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