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December 2022 Obs/Disc


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6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

It’s advisory for central and western SNE about to the coast 

This run the precip sort of angled Ese so Eastern areas were relatively dry . If that energy consolidates a tad more you would see that change . Probably equal chances or better it goes poofy 

Of course it finds away to pork here lol

But I feel like this is a provisional solution.

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On 11/28/2022 at 9:16 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Here's a good visual....you can see early on how there are still above normal heights in the south while we are BN.....

 

Nov28_00zEPS264.thumb.png.2f0e29d2346b97951c6d8f5e9b9e96ef.png

 

 

 

Then you will note how late in the period at the end, the heights are below normal across all of the east including the southeast with the ridging pushed back toward western plains and rockies. Nov28_00zEPS360.thumb.png.336ec1c625474e7388317394abb664c0.png

12z EPS for Dec08 and Dec12:

eps_z500a_namer_8.png

eps_z500a_namer_24.png

Blocking in Greenland is not wildly off, however the PNA domain was very wrong which changes everything.  Instead of having a PV under the block, it is now over Western Canada and the SE ridge is able to link up to the blocking.  This is exactly what I was concerned about on November 27th:

On 11/27/2022 at 1:37 PM, qg_omega said:

Lots of ppl just are seeing red in Greenland and expecting a good pattern.  Not going to happen, SE ridge will join up with the blocking and dump the PV into the west

SSTs support the -PNA regime and I have no faith in any ensemble trying to break down the -PNA.     

Map of SST anomalies

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11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Oh God, what fun....OES flurry CJ-Rainer-Upslope...rinse, repeat

Heaven

:lol: Many are big synoptic fans over everything else.  Hard to argue with it, sometimes we drown our boredom in micro-scale nuances.  It’s small victories, seeing a radar with light pellet/graupel showers coating the ground, vs cold mostly cloudy skies. Ha.

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9 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

12z EPS for Dec08 and Dec12:

eps_z500a_namer_8.png

eps_z500a_namer_24.png

Blocking in Greenland is not wildly off, however the PNA domain was very wrong which changes everything.  Instead of having a PV under the block, it is now over Western Canada and the SE ridge is able to link up to the blocking.  This is exactly what I was concerned about on November 27th:

SSTs support the -PNA regime and I have no faith in any ensemble trying to break down the -PNA.     

Map of SST anomalies

PNA will go positive in January.

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