December 2022 Obs/Disc

[weatherwiz]

I'm starting to doubt whether we will get there in January. I think we need to see substantial changes even west of the Pacific...like across Russia/Asia. We continue to see extremely strong jet extensions from that continent through the Pacific with significant wave breaking occurring across the eastern Pacific and across the west coast. IMO, I think we are actually going to need stronger support for the Arctic and get blocking to become more favorable. Everytime we seem to get a favorable pattern we keep getting weaknesses and see crap cut to our west. 

I could be totally wrong on this, but the past few years (including this year) it seems one big problem is the exit region of the jet off the Asian continent has been displaced farther south. Having this farther north would be a major game changer. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I'm starting to doubt whether we will get there in January. I think we need to see substantial changes even west of the Pacific...like across Russia/Asia. We continue to see extremely strong jet extensions from that continent through the Pacific with significant wave breaking occurring across the eastern Pacific and across the west coast. IMO, I think we are actually going to need stronger support for the Arctic and get blocking to become more favorable. Everytime we seem to get a favorable pattern we keep getting weaknesses and see crap cut to our west. 

I could be totally wrong on this, but the past few years (including this year) it seems one big problem is the exit region of the jet off the Asian continent has been displaced farther south. Having this farther north would be a major game changer. 

Nah, everything is awesome!

 

Like others pointed out, don’t bother opening the shades if the euro is right. I’m nervous pinning my hopes on the gfs 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Nah, everything is awesome!

 

Like others pointed out, don’t bother opening the shades if the euro is right. I’m nervous pinning my hopes on the gfs 

I don't think there this is one person implying that everything is awesome....the upside at this point is a normal to slightly above season....with a narrow pathway to significantly more.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Nah, everything is awesome!

 

Like others pointed out, don’t bother opening the shades if the euro is right. I’m nervous pinning my hopes on the gfs 

I'm starting to become a firm believer in the idea that if you've become established in a long-term global regime, it is very difficult to break that regime until the entire system is "flushed". We established Nina two years ago, and even know we had the El Nino in 2018-2019 that was coming off another Nina dominated regime. Anyways, what we established globally during the 2020 year has not really changed much. Are there subtle differences within teleconnections and indices, sure, but the main theme is the same. I think if we had a wild winter in 2020-2021 we would have repeated that last winter and this winter. 

Everytime things look favorable in the medium-to-long range, we end up seeing the overall modeled structure shift west. This happened last week and I'm kind of kicking myself. The 7-10 days prior I was harping up potential on the East Coast but in the back of my mind I had concerns we would eventually see a major shift west. The boom...last weekend that shift started and it was a sizable shift. I think the issue for this was where the airmass source was entering the country from. Models don't handle this well when the source air enters in the vicinity of the Rocky Mountains.

We will see the pattern change again moving towards mid-January, however, I would be willing to bet it's going to be the same areas impacted again...and it's the same areas that were impacted in these changes last winter and the winter before. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

30 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Actually impressive how close the match is on the pattern over much of North America…except we got the PV trapped under the Baffin block in Dec ‘55 which actually just gave us suppression depression and frigid temps. 

It was both one of my five primary seasonal analogs, and primary ENSO analogs....its a good way to illustrate how things could go right from here on out.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I'm starting to become a firm believer in the idea that if you've become established in a long-term global regime, it is very difficult to break that regime until the entire system is "flushed". We established Nina two years ago, and even know we had the El Nino in 2018-2019 that was coming off another Nina dominated regime. Anyways, what we established globally during the 2020 year has not really changed much. Are there subtle differences within teleconnections and indices, sure, but the main theme is the same. I think if we had a wild winter in 2020-2021 we would have repeated that last winter and this winter. 

Everytime things look favorable in the medium-to-long range, we end up seeing the overall modeled structure shift west. This happened last week and I'm kind of kicking myself. The 7-10 days prior I was harping up potential on the East Coast but in the back of my mind I had concerns we would eventually see a major shift west. The boom...last weekend that shift started and it was a sizable shift. I think the issue for this was where the airmass source was entering the country from. Models don't handle this well when the source air enters in the vicinity of the Rocky Mountains.

We will see the pattern change again moving towards mid-January, however, I would be willing to bet it's going to be the same areas impacted again...and it's the same areas that were impacted in these changes last winter and the winter before. 

Paul, if you recall, 2020-2021 actually featured a mean DM +PNA and even last season was decidedly +PNA after the record RNA December. I know you are referencing more than the PNA here, but just pointing that out.

I get what you are saying regarding the emboldened and have wondered that myself. Its probably the difference between my area ending up with like 45" or 65" of snowfall. I don't see an abysmal season as being in the cards.

[Great Snow 1717]

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I'm starting to become a firm believer in the idea that if you've become established in a long-term global regime, it is very difficult to break that regime until the entire system is "flushed". We established Nina two years ago, and even know we had the El Nino in 2018-2019 that was coming off another Nina dominated regime. Anyways, what we established globally during the 2020 year has not really changed much. Are there subtle differences within teleconnections and indices, sure, but the main theme is the same. I think if we had a wild winter in 2020-2021 we would have repeated that last winter and this winter. 

Everytime things look favorable in the medium-to-long range, we end up seeing the overall modeled structure shift west. This happened last week and I'm kind of kicking myself. The 7-10 days prior I was harping up potential on the East Coast but in the back of my mind I had concerns we would eventually see a major shift west. The boom...last weekend that shift started and it was a sizable shift. I think the issue for this was where the airmass source was entering the country from. Models don't handle this well when the source air enters in the vicinity of the Rocky Mountains.

We will see the pattern change again moving towards mid-January, however, I would be willing to bet it's going to be the same areas impacted again...and it's the same areas that were impacted in these changes last winter and the winter before. 

Agree!

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Paul, if you recall, 2020-2021 actually featured a mean DM +PNA and even last season was decidedly +PNA after the record RNA December. I know you are referencing more than the PNA here, but just pointing that out.

I get what you are saying regarding the emboldened and have wondered that myself. Its probably the difference between my area ending up with like 45" or 65" of snowfall. I don't see an abysmal season as being in the cards.

Regarding the PNA, this is why I so badly want to breakdown these indices on a weekly to biweekly level instead of just having a monthly or seasonal average. I truly believe that having this breakdown will provide so much more insight and guidance into pattern evolution and be a huge asset for medium-to-long range forecasting. By having weekly/bi-weekly averaged values you can make plots and really visualize the short-term changes.

When we make our composites and correlations and are tied into the monthly averaged values, and are comparing say snowfall or temperatures or precipitation, you end up with a large spread in the results which leads to a larger standard deviation. For example, comparing seasonal or monthly snowfall totals to the -NAO/+NAO phase. Now the data averaged out yields a better correlation to above-average snowfall with a -NAO and below-average with +NAO. but when you list snowfall totals for each +/- NAO season, there will be a large spread. I think breaking this stuff down into smaller time-scales will eliminate some of this spread.

[WxWatcher007]

21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think there this is one person implying that everything is awesome....the upside at this point is a normal to slightly above season....with a narrow pathway to significantly more.

I agree. As down as I am on the season, there’s certainly still a viable pathway to a decent season at this point. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Regarding the PNA, this is why I so badly want to breakdown these indices on a weekly to biweekly level instead of just having a monthly or seasonal average. I truly believe that having this breakdown will provide so much more insight and guidance into pattern evolution and be a huge asset for medium-to-long range forecasting. By having weekly/bi-weekly averaged values you can make plots and really visualize the short-term changes.

When we make our composites and correlations and are tied into the monthly averaged values, and are comparing say snowfall or temperatures or precipitation, you end up with a large spread in the results which leads to a larger standard deviation. For example, comparing seasonal or monthly snowfall totals to the -NAO/+NAO phase. Now the data averaged out yields a better correlation to above-average snowfall with a -NAO and below-average with +NAO. but when you list snowfall totals for each +/- NAO season, there will be a large spread. I think breaking this stuff down into smaller time-scales will eliminate some of this spread.

I don't disagree, but that is a ton of work.

Interested to see if we score a biggie in the 1/6 to 1/20 timeframe that I identified back in early November.....

[weatherwiz]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't disagree, but that is a ton of work.

Interested to see if we score a biggie in the 1/6 to 1/20 timeframe that I identified back in early November.....

It would be so much work (though having programming knowledge in like Python it would probably be super easy). That def seems like a period of interest. 

[NorEastermass128]

This weather today…

[wx2fish]

Never managed to really mix out today in NH. I had a brief spike to 44, but back into the 30s now. Very stagnant air.

[Typhoon Tip]

4 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

I'm starting to become a firm believer in the idea that if you've become established in a long-term global regime, it is very difficult to break that regime until the entire system is "flushed". We established Nina two years ago, and even know we had the El Nino in 2018-2019 that was coming off another Nina dominated regime. Anyways, what we established globally during the 2020 year has not really changed much. Are there subtle differences within teleconnections and indices, sure, but the main theme is the same. I think if we had a wild winter in 2020-2021 we would have repeated that last winter and this winter. 

Everytime things look favorable in the medium-to-long range, we end up seeing the overall modeled structure shift west. This happened last week and I'm kind of kicking myself. The 7-10 days prior I was harping up potential on the East Coast but in the back of my mind I had concerns we would eventually see a major shift west. The boom...last weekend that shift started and it was a sizable shift. I think the issue for this was where the airmass source was entering the country from. Models don't handle this well when the source air enters in the vicinity of the Rocky Mountains.

We will see the pattern change again moving towards mid-January, however, I would be willing to bet it's going to be the same areas impacted again...and it's the same areas that were impacted in these changes last winter and the winter before. 

Another way that can be defined is just in knowing the EPO climatology.  The actually d(index) may be most important, too. 

Early -EPO's subtend a troughs into the Rockies ..that's just conservation of mass.  Heights go up over Alaska, they have to come down to balance and the total wave length requires the trough west initially.   But as the EPO ages and starts to decay, it tends to progress SE and temporarily ...if not longer, this manifest in a +PNAP.   

Last week was peculiar in that there was this initial behavior but the subsequent +PNAP was not substantially exerting.   It's really like the storm loaded into the flow during the early -EPO... and it's evolution overall interfered with the normal gestation.. It just didn't give the PNAP a chance.  

The other aspect that's hard for me to ignore is that the bomb sort of obeyed a La Nina memo in not being necessarily EC destined.

 

[jbenedet]

5 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Never managed to really mix out today in NH. I had a brief spike to 44, but back into the 30s now. Very stagnant air.

12z NAM MOS you posted yesterday was pretty damn well spot on with a high of 48 MHT. 47 high currently. 

But yea, you’d think we could do better given how warm 850 on up is. Testament to the solar min more than anything, I suppose. 

If we avoid the clouds, it’s low 50’s tomorrow. Should feel nice.

[SJonesWX]

1 hour ago, NorEastermass128 said:

This weather today…

you should quit smoking. it is bad for your health and probably causes global warming

that said, I am going outside for a smoke. been a stressful day

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Another way that can be defined is just in knowing the EPO climatology.  The actually d(index) may be most important, too. 

Early -EPO's subtend a troughs into the Rockies ..that's just conservation of mass.  Heights go up over Alaska, they have to come down to balance and the total wave length requires the trough west initially.   But as the EPO ages and starts to decay, it tends to progress SE and temporarily ...if not longer, this manifest in a +PNAP.   

Last week was peculiar in that there was this initial behavior but the subsequent +PNAP was not substantially exerting.   It's really like the storm loaded into the flow during the early -EPO... and it's evolution overall interfered with the normal gestation.. It just didn't give the PNAP a chance.  

The other aspect that's hard for me to ignore is that the bomb sort of obeyed a La Nina memo in not being necessarily EC destined.

 

Great post. Certainly can't overlook the EPO and its climatology and how the EPO is evolving as well. 

I was also thinking this. When we do composites on indices such as NAO, AO, etc. we're focusing on the 500 height anomalies. In reality though, aren't these indices more of a measure of differences in SLP between your consistent pressure systems (I know at least the NAO is). 

I was doing some composites with the NAO and looking at SLP anomalies vs. height anomalies, there definitely can be a difference in where the core SLP anomalies are vs. the height anomalies. Too make this shorter, I wonder if where the core SLP anomalies are located and structured holds significant weight and could, perhaps, even be more of an indicator then 500 height anomalies itself?

[Lava Rock]

Max of 39f. Bring on the ridiculous heat wave

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk

[kdxken]

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

High of 40° here today. Down to 30° now.  

[scoob40]

27 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

High of 40° here today. Down to 30° now.  

Microclimate ? KORE was at least 48.

[powderfreak]

Hit 45F up here at MVL. 

[DavisStraight]

1 hour ago, scoob40 said:

Microclimate ? KORE was at least 48.

I let my wood stove go out today, temp in the house hasn't dropped below 70, I'll give it a cleaning tonight and start an overnight fire.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 hours ago, scoob40 said:

Microclimate ? KORE was at least 48.

27/26 currently.  I’m definitely in a micro

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 hours ago, kdxken said:

 

Teeing it up?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

46 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

27/26 currently.  I’m definitely in a micro

Temp going up now.  30F

[HoarfrostHubb]

3 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

High of 40° here today. Down to 30° now.  

Hit 50F here.  Looped the dog in just a sweatshirt.  

[HIPPYVALLEY]

14 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Hit 50F here.  Looped the dog in just a sweatshirt.  

I’ve gone from 27° to 32° in the past 90 minutes so we all roast tomorrow.

[Chris12WX]

6 hours ago, wx2fish said:

Never managed to really mix out today in NH. I had a brief spike to 44, but back into the 30s now. Very stagnant air.

Stagnant indeed. Lowest 100 feet is nothing but chimney smoke and road dust.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, Chris12WX said:

Stagnant indeed. Lowest 100 feet is nothing but chimney smoke and road dust.

A New England staple.