December 2022 Obs/Disc

[tamarack]

3 straight days with snow!   About 20 flakes Monday, only 10 yesterday but an actual dusting today.  

[Great Snow 1717]

  On 12/28/2022 at 6:59 PM, tamarack said:

3 straight days with snow!   About 20 flakes Monday, only 10 yesterday but an actual dusting today.  

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Please update us every 6 hours..thank you!

[Lava Rock]

  On 12/28/2022 at 6:58 PM, moneypitmike said:

nice little burst of snow at PIT2.  That and the ice on the river are the only things that look like winter.

We had some lt sn too. Was nice to see it

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk

[moneypitmike]

  On 12/28/2022 at 8:40 PM, Lava Rock said:

We had some lt sn too. Was nice to see it

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk
 

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Even a light coating makes a world of difference.

[Cold Miser]

  On 12/28/2022 at 7:37 PM, Great Snow 1717 said:

Please update us every 6 hours..thank you!

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And clean the board between measurements. 

[MJO812]

Alot of areas are struggling 

[Baroclinic Zone]

256" at Alta

[dryslot]

@OceanStWx Temp Sensor @ KLEW down again?

[78Blizzard]

About all this shop owner can do is wait for a thaw:

 

[Ginx snewx]

Black ice around 29

[Ginx snewx]

  On 12/29/2022 at 6:04 AM, 78Blizzard said:

About all this shop owner can do is wait for a thaw:

You mean spring

 

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[kdxken]

  On 12/29/2022 at 10:06 AM, Ginx snewx said:

Black ice around 29

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Thanks for the warning.

[Ginx snewx]

  On 12/29/2022 at 10:48 AM, kdxken said:

Thanks for the warning.

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No problem deck was icy at 430. Well looks like the 7th is a viable date to watch.

[Baroclinic Zone]

34.5F here.  Been 2 weeks since my last low above freezing

[HoarfrostHubb]

27.0F.    Dull

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 12/28/2022 at 11:38 PM, Baroclinic Zone said:

260" at Alta

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Snowfall forecast over the next 4 days is ~6 feet. 

[512high]

Low of 23, looks like a nice sunrise to the east from my shop, looking forward to the warm spell, hopefully save a bit on the heat.....

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 12/29/2022 at 12:11 PM, Baroclinic Zone said:

Snowfall forecast over the next 4 days is ~6 feet. 

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Brighton Resort @ 276"  

[Modfan2]

  On 12/29/2022 at 10:06 AM, Ginx snewx said:

Black ice around 29

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Yup, wife passed a couple of accidents on 395 In Killingly area, once she got to Thompson into Mass the roads were dry. Valley fog.

[dryslot]

  On 12/29/2022 at 11:27 AM, Ginx snewx said:

No problem deck was icy at 430. Well looks like the 7th is a viable date to watch.

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this

[40/70 Benchmark]

Well, I am going to finish the month of December with 2" of snow.

Since 1950, there have been 6 other cold ENSO seasons in which my locale received 3" or less of snowfall during the month of December.

1955-1956: 2" with a seasonal total of 87.3"

1973-1974: 1.8" with a seasonal total of 44.8"

1988-1989: 2.6" with a seasonal total of 20.3"

1998-1999: 1" with a seasonal total of 41.9"

1999-2000: T with a seasonal total of 33.3"

2021-2022: 2" with a seasonal total of 42.5"

This bolsters confidence in my seasonal forecast range of 60-70" because while the mean seasonal snowfall is only 45", it would be wise to hedge upwards given how the month of December actually evolved.

Note the utter lack of high latitude blocking in the composite:

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/29/2022 at 3:25 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, I am going to finish the month of December with 2" of snow.

Since 1950, there have been 6 other cold ENSO seasons in which my locale received 3" or less of snowfall during the month of December.

1955-1956: 2" with a seasonal total of 87.3"

1973-1974: 1.8" with a seasonal total of 44.8"

1988-1989: 2.6" with a seasonal total of 20.3"

1998-1999: 1" with a seasonal total of 41.9"

1999-2000: T with a seasonal total of 33.3"

2021-2022: 2" with a seasonal total of 42.5"

This bolsters confidence in my seasonal forecast range of 60-70" because while the mean seasonal snowfall is only 45", it would be wise to hedge upwards given how the month of December actually evolved.

Note the utter lack of high latitude blocking in the composite:

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[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/29/2022 at 3:27 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

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This season compares fairly favorably to December 1955:

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/29/2022 at 3:30 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This season compares fairly favorably to December 1955:

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Here is how January 1956 evolved...

 

Look familiar?

It should...

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 12/29/2022 at 3:25 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, I am going to finish the month of December with 2" of snow.

Since 1950, there have been 6 other cold ENSO seasons in which my locale received 3" or less of snowfall during the month of December.

1955-1956: 2" with a seasonal total of 87.3"

1973-1974: 1.8" with a seasonal total of 44.8"

1988-1989: 2.6" with a seasonal total of 20.3"

1998-1999: 1" with a seasonal total of 41.9"

1999-2000: T with a seasonal total of 33.3"

2021-2022: 2" with a seasonal total of 42.5"

This bolsters confidence in my seasonal forecast range of 60-70" because while the mean seasonal snowfall is only 45", it would be wise to hedge upwards given how the month of December actually evolved.

Note the utter lack of high latitude blocking in the composite:

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Hopefully not heading To a  99-2000

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/29/2022 at 3:32 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Hopefully not heading To a  99-2000

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I doubt it...

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/29/2022 at 3:32 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Here is how January 1956 evolved...

 

Look familiar?

It should...

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I think the Pacific will look better than that this January.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm usually not huge on the "la nina is dying, so that will help late" train, but that seemed to be a factor in 1956...it could actually play a role this season. Regardless of any SSW, I do expect a nice March (yea, I know the sun will melt it and it sucks that December didn't deliver for the holidays and low sun angle).

-0.7	-0.6	-0.7	-0.8	-0.8	-0.7	-0.7	-0.7	-1.1	-1.4	-1.7	-1.5
1956	-1.1	-0.8

[borderwx]

Oops

[ORH_wxman]

  On 12/29/2022 at 3:30 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This season compares fairly favorably to December 1955:

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Actually impressive how close the match is on the pattern over much of North America…except we got the PV trapped under the Baffin block in Dec ‘55 which actually just gave us suppression depression and frigid temps.