December 2022 Obs/Disc

[kdxken]

5 hours ago, weathafella said:

Through 12/25:

 

BOS:  +0.3F

ORH:  +2.3F

PVD:  -0.7F

BDL:  +0.2

 

I thought it would average warmer to date.  12/26-27 will likely end up aob but 12/28-31 will tack on some +.

I would have guessed that they would have been way above. I guess the cold shot tempered it somewhat.

[powderfreak]

32 minutes ago, kdxken said:

I would have guessed that they would have been way above. I guess the cold shot tempered it somewhat.

December also just isn’t that cold of a month too.

[tamarack]

12 hours ago, weathafella said:

Through 12/25:

 

BOS:  +0.3F

ORH:  +2.3F

PVD:  -0.7F

BDL:  +0.2

 

I thought it would average warmer to date.  12/26-27 will likely end up aob but 12/28-31 will tack on some +.

Currently +4.5F here, will likely be +5 by month's end, with one or two +10 (or milder) days on 30-31.  Only the 3rd December of 25 that failed to go below zero, unless we get some super radiational nights tonight or tomorrow night.  Minima have been consistently above the forecast, as nighttime clouds do their thing.  I think Aroostook will be even more AN than here.

[WxWatcher007]

First time above freezing since Son of Grinch

[Ginx snewx]

Wolfie I know you scoffed at the once in a generation AFD IN Buffalo but yowzers. So many dead. The combination of severe cold severe wind and straight up 40 hrs of Blizzard was the worst of my generation. 

[radarman]

16 hours ago, radarman said:

Word is that certain local ponds might be ready to go tomorrow with smooth black ice.  Be safe but take advantage if you can.  Doesn't usually last long.

Lake Wyola just about perfection

[HIPPYVALLEY]

A bit warmer than expected today. 37° in  Turners Falls on the car thermo. 

[Damage In Tolland]

16 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

A bit warmer than expected today. 37° in  Turners Falls on the car thermo. 

Seems too warm. Hit 29.3 here earlier for the high. Down to 28 now . 

[Baroclinic Zone]

35.5F high

[backedgeapproaching]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Wolfie I know you scoffed at the once in a generation AFD IN Buffalo but yowzers. So many dead. The combination of severe cold severe wind and straight up 40 hrs of Blizzard was the worst of my generation. 

39" on 50-1 ratios, damn.   And those last 6" at 100-1...lol.   That depth is nuts too.

[Chris12WX]

1 hour ago, radarman said:

Lake Wyola just about perfection

Don't miss the net! That bugger will never stop.

[dendrite]

13 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

39" on 50-1 ratios, damn.   And those last 6" at 100-1...lol.   That depth is nuts too.

Take all of that with a grain of salt. 

[ORH_wxman]

This is the last 3 weeks mean pattern. Hard to believe we didn’t do better. NNE didn’t do too bad…so much for fearing suppression. 

 

 

[backedgeapproaching]

Just now, dendrite said:

Take all of that with a grain of salt. 

I mean yea I figured, but they still put the numbers in there so was taking it on some face value.  I have seen some JSpin 40 or 50-1, but they are one offs with zero wind and much smaller events if I recall.

Why even put those liquid totals in there then? All 66" is like 50-1 or even more.  

[ORH_wxman]

And if you get rid of the transition period between 12/5 and 12/8, it looks even more classic

 

[ORH_wxman]

Those h5 maps above are a great illustration of how the ensembles actually did predict the mean pattern fairly well, but the smaller scale features within the mean pattern mostly broke against us and those smaller scale nuances are not easily predictable at 1-2 weeks notice. 

[Ginx snewx]

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Those h5 maps above are a great illustration of how the ensembles actually did predict the mean pattern fairly well, but the smaller scale features within the mean pattern mostly broke against us and those smaller scale nuances are not easily predictable at 1-2 weeks notice. 

How to get screwed out of a KU in one easy lesson 

[Ginx snewx]

42 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

39" on 50-1 ratios, damn.   And those last 6" at 100-1...lol.   That depth is nuts too.

 

26 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Take all of that with a grain of salt. 

Another one close by. 

[tamarack]

Perhaps Cheektowaga took cores while Snyder measured what was caught in containers.  With 40-60 mph gusts, might make a difference.  

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Seems too warm. Hit 29.3 here earlier for the high. Down to 28 now . 

TF is right on the Connecticut River

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 hours ago, radarman said:

Lake Wyola just about perfection

Might head up there tomorrow.  Good pond skating does not happen every year.

[radarman]

4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Might head up there tomorrow.  Good pond skating does not happen every year.

 An older gentleman there said it was the smoothest he's ever seen Wyola.  3-6" of black ice.   I heard portions of Fitzgerald Lake in Noho is also good.

 

[qg_omega]

49 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is the last 3 weeks mean pattern. Hard to believe we didn’t do better. NNE didn’t do too bad…so much for fearing suppression. 

 

 

too bad we dont live at 500mb

[Baroclinic Zone]

23 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Might head up there tomorrow.  Good pond skating does not happen every year.

 

14 minutes ago, radarman said:

 An older gentleman there said it was the smoothest he's ever seen Wyola.  3-6" of black ice.   I heard portions of Fitzgerald Lake in Noho is also good.

 

 

3 hours ago, radarman said:

Lake Wyola just about perfection

Local news really pushing ice safety after fall thru ice.

https://www.wcvb.com/article/winchester-ice-rescue-winter-pond-massachusetts/42348664

[tamarack]

36 minutes ago, radarman said:

 An older gentleman there said it was the smoothest he's ever seen Wyola.  3-6" of black ice.   I heard portions of Fitzgerald Lake in Noho is also good.

 

Many years ago (1955-56) in NNJ we had a calm and slightly below zero night about Dec 20 that put 2" on the 95% of our lake that had been open water.  A high schooler was skating all over and saw that I'd walked out on the 5% of older, thicker ice to test the new stuff's thickness.  He skated over to scold me for ruining that beautiful ice (one small hole on a 50-acre lake).  A small snowfall a few days later was wiped out by some 40s, then it was dry and cold for 6 weeks.  It's the only time I've seen black ice a foot thick or more.

[Ginx snewx]

4 hours ago, radarman said:

Lake Wyola just about perfection

Definitely calling for a big bonfire. Great shot Eric

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I probably wouldn’t go anywhere near most ice right now.

[Baroclinic Zone]

28 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I probably wouldn’t go anywhere near most ice right now.

Not seeing any ice here.

[dendrite]

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

Another one close by. 

There’s no way you’re getting accurate measurements with that amount of wind. More errors than the Pittsburgh Pirates.

And I’m going to assume they’re trying to catch the snow in the cocorahs gauge and not having much success doing it. Even the daily new snowfall will be difficult because you need to clear an area without it filling back in with blowing and drifting snow.

[Whineminster]

2 hours ago, radarman said:

 An older gentleman there said it was the smoothest he's ever seen Wyola.  3-6" of black ice.   I heard portions of Fitzgerald Lake in Noho is also good.

 

Wow, nice that it's black. Paradise Pond in LSF was crusty, except for thin part that just froze over... Stayed away from there. 

44 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I probably wouldn’t go anywhere near most ice right now.

Yeah in your area, for sure. I always go out with a spud bar, ice picks, and wear a life jacket early season while I check thickness before setting up. Only way to be safe. Can't just go slap on your skates and beeline it for the other shore like some jabronies.