December 2022 Obs/Disc

[40/70 Benchmark]

So far, so good IMO...not perfect, but satisfactory with a week to go...

[qg_omega]

Reality, SE ridge linked up with the blocking.

[40/70 Benchmark]

41 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Reality, SE ridge linked up with the blocking.

Yea, nuances like that determine whether it ends up snowing much or not. Def. part of the reason why the coast and back inland about 50mi or so saw even less snow than I had anticipated in December...and I wasn't gangbusters, either.

[CoastalWx]

44 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Reality, SE ridge linked up with the blocking.

That's not SE ridging. That is from the low developing to the west. The SE ridge was not in place.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That's not SE ridging. That is from the low developing to the west. The SE ridge was not in place.

Well, in a stochastic sense, that snapshot is.....the origin isn't tropical forcing, but its still higher heights in the east that porked our storm chances. Chicken or egg....

[ORH_wxman]

26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That's not SE ridging. That is from the low developing to the west. The SE ridge was not in place.

Yeah look at the location of the western ridge on those two frames. That’s really the biggest difference. We buried a bit of the PV into the NW instead of having a chunk of it get trapped under the block like in the first image which also allowed the western ridge to amplify a bit further east. 

[CoastalWx]

26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, in a stochastic sense, that snapshot is.....the origin isn't tropical forcing, but its still higher heights in the east that porked our storm chances. Chicken or egg....

His point is that SE ridging connected with the blocking to cause this to run west of us, but that is not true. Like Will said, the western ridging was further west and that allowed for this to really dig into the Plains, and THEN you had heights rise in the east by the response.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

His point is that SE ridging connected with the blocking to cause this to run west of us, but that is not true. Like Will said, the western ridging was further west and that allowed for this to really dig into the Plains, and THEN you had heights rise in the east by the response.

Gotcha. I guess I didn't read that much into it....both are true. Its been a -PNA month, but in that specific instance, the PNA ridge was just too far west.

Right.

[ORH_wxman]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Gotcha. I guess I didn't read that much into it....both are true. Its been a -PNA month, but in that specific instance, the PNA ridge was just too far west.

Right.

We didn’t have much of a SE ridge signal at all once the block formed. Only transient during the initial evolution in the Dec 5-8 range. 
 

The height response to the NAO block was pretty classic to the south…all along that latitude band. Typically we’d prob get something decent out of this look but not this time…just the smaller event on 12/11

 

[Allsnow]

35 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That’s incorrect. The SE Ridge linking up with the -AO occurred before the shortwave entered the US. Notice the TPV is in the same location north of Montana. So it wasn’t caused by the TPV digging more. 

New run

Old run

 

 

 

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

That's not SE ridging. That is from the low developing to the west. The SE ridge was not in place.

 

56 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah look at the location of the western ridge on those two frames. That’s really the biggest difference. We buried a bit of the PV into the NW instead of having a chunk of it get trapped under the block like in the first image which also allowed the western ridge to amplify a bit further east. 

 

[SnoSki14]

NAO block was too far south, which allowed it to link with SE ridge at times and there wasn't much of a PNA to counteract it. 

That's why this month sucked. Simple explanation 

A good PNA ridge is becoming a most for winter particularly in December 

[Typhoon Tip]

I kinda see his/her point though.  Both sides are right -

The cause is because the +PNA caused a west biased +PNAP response... true!  That sent the wave mechanics on a butt bang destiny...

But when looking at it from orbit, ...the end result looks like SE ridging 'connected,' albeit vaguely ...with the -NAO height field. 

I think one side is discussing the causality, the other is just making an end point observation?   - at least that's the way it read to me..

In the end, the +PNAP biased over the western limb of N/A is why our butts are sore.

[ORH_wxman]

52 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I kinda see his/her point though.  Both sides are right -

The cause is because the +PNA caused a west biased +PNAP response... true!  That sent the wave mechanics on a butt bang destiny...

But when looking at it from orbit, ...the end result looks like SE ridging 'connected,' albeit vaguely ...with the -NAO height field. 

I think one side is discussing the causality, the other is just making an end point observation?   - at least that's the way it read to me..

In the end, the +PNAP biased over the western limb of N/A is why our butts are sore.

Correct. There wasn’t some larger scale SE ridge on the longwave pattern that was causing our problems. It’s pretty obvious looking at the longwave pattern I posted above earlier. 

[MarkO]

Quick burst of precip and wind as the front passed through. One flash of lightning, big gust and sound of a transformer blowing. No power in Lowell.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Correct. There wasn’t some larger scale SE ridge on the longwave pattern that was causing our problems. It’s pretty obvious looking at the longwave pattern I posted above earlier. 

We actually haven't had much of a SE ridge that is discernible above the footprint - either La Nina, CC related HC expansion, or probably some of both. The heights between N Mexico and Bermuda have just been sort of 3.2 dm higher than the 1950 - 1996 mean as a foundation over which our early winter has so for been gliding.  

If folks want to see an inhibitory SE ridge... go to 1999 through 2002 ... Even when we had coastals in the era, there was some observable interference...and as soon as the storm went passed, the height down there were always above normal.  That's when I formulated the 'Miami rule,' which has saves me to this day from falling into the Euro D9 trough trap along the EC, more times than I can count.   Prior to a S/W descending down the +PNAP ridge, if heights over MIA are > 582, and the balanced geostrophic wind is ambiently above 35 knots, there is negative interference in the SE and the trough will invariably lose the southern aspect as it dives down ...sometimes sloping positive, other times disappearing altogether.   D9 Euro, gone.

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, MarkO said:

Quick burst of precip and wind as the front passed through. One flash of lightning, big gust and sound of a transformer blowing. No power in Lowell.

the flash of lightning probably was the transformer ?

[MarkO]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

the flash of lightning probably was the transformer ?

I think it may have been. There was a delay of at least a few seconds. About 200k without power in MA. Still pretty gusty, so don't expect power for at least a few hours. 

[dendrite]

Today's the 25th anny of the 12/23/97 quick morning thumper for NE MA into S NH.

[ORH_wxman]

10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Today's the 25th anny of the 12/23/97 quick morning thumper for NE MA into S NH.

The craziest thing about that is it looked so lame aloft. Obviously there was a reason models weren’t spitting out much. 
 

Though there was one met (I want to say it was Kevin Lemanowicz but it could have been someone else) that came on at 11pm the night before and said something like “there’s one model that went nuts just now and is giving a much bigger snow event for the interior….but it’s an outlier so I’m tossing it out” and he was holding the paper (prob from old difax machine) in his hand and crumpled it up and tossed it off the screen, LOL. But other than that one reference, there was zero indication that the storm would be what it was. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

23/22,  flurries.
With the 1” last night and .50” tonight I am at a seasonal total of 6.5”

[Sugarloaf1989]

This cold outbreak is really impressive.  The warmest temperature currently in the whole United States is Key West at 66F.

[DavisStraight]

36 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

This cold outbreak is really impressive.  The warmest temperature currently in the whole United States is Key West at 66F.

Sure is, check out these temps

 

MesoWest Surface Weather Maps (utah.edu)

[WxWatcher007]

9.4/-3

WC -9

Feels like winter

[Sugarloaf1989]

7F here currently. 

[moneypitmike]

Winter temps at last.

 

Merry Christmas weenies!

[Torch Tiger]

Cold out there, thankfully short-lived.  Also, days getting longer!  Let's gooooo

[Modfan2]

8/-8 here to start.

[TalcottWx]

5/-6 here.... 

[dendrite]

9.5°

Thankfully the core of the cold went south of here

[CoastalWx]

10. Merry Christmas Eve!