December 2022 Obs/Disc

[SouthCoastMA]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

HA i forgot there was a thread for that. why in god's name is there a thread for that?

[weatherwiz]

Even if we flip to a weak EL Nino next fall, due to the ocean-atmosphere lag it's still probably going to take quite a while for the atmosphere to respond accordingly. So the oceanic state could reflect that of a [weak] Nino, however, the atmosphere could still be more Nina-like. 

Now that doesn't mean anything bad, it's just for awareness purposes. The atmosphere doesn't respond to oceanic changes right away. 

[ORH_wxman]

36 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

maybe the media was hyping the arctic air this week, but I thought we were supposed to be BN this week. I don't recall what was frcst this week during last week's discussions here, but the airmass totally retreated. I don't remember the last time where the intrusion of a colder airmass that was modeled to last several days, totally retreated within days leading up to it. I'm sure someone will provide some dates

This is what guidance last week generally looked like prior to the end-of-week storm....you can see the PV lobe trapped in SE Canada just to our north. That's a cold look here. That obviously didn't materialize.

[CoastalWx]

The cold is really centered to our SW. Areas from Like AR,TN,KY,GA etc are going to be very cold from an anomaly standpoint. Maybe even challenging records. Our delivery sucks here, but it will be plenty cold this weekend.

[Whineminster]

3 hours ago, DavisStraight said:

I thought Will said it was good, at least good near the end of January.

@CoastalWx had a big melt saying the pattern is poo, but turns out it wasn't. Difference of opinion?

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Whineminster said:

@CoastalWx had a big melt saying the pattern is poo, but turns out it wasn't. Difference of opinion?

I don't know what you mean. Next week into early January looks like poo overall. I have no idea about the end of January, but the weeklies looked good.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Whineminster said:

@CoastalWx had a big melt saying the pattern is poo, but turns out it wasn't. Difference of opinion?

He didn't say the pattern sucked....he said the wx had sucked up to that point and the model guidance was temporarily taking away the 1/26 storm due to the 1/24 system getting instead of being wide right....so Scooter had a nice melt telling James the 1/26 storm ain't happening. But the pattern always looked pretty good.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don't know what you mean. Next week into early January looks like poo overall. I have no idea about the end of January, but the weeklies looked good.

He was referencing your melt from Jan 2015

[CoastalWx]

Oh lol, we are talking about 2015. I was lost for a second.  

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

He didn't say the pattern sucked....he said the wx had sucked up to that point and the model guidance was temporarily taking away the 1/26 storm due to the 1/24 system getting instead of being wide right....so Scooter had a nice melt telling James the 1/26 storm ain't happening. But the pattern always looked pretty good.

That was crazy. 95/100 times it probably would have kicked it OTS. But like everything else afterwards, it just made it work. Talk about luck during that stretch. 

[CoastalWx]

The only thing that aggravated me that winter was 3/5/15. The Bruce Willis event. That irked me...but I know I really have no business complaining.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

That was crazy. 95/100 times it probably would have kicked it OTS. But like everything else afterwards, it just made it work. Talk about luck during that stretch. 

The Jan 26, 2015 phasing mechanics was amazing to watch on that storm....basically backed the thing in from Bermuda (ok, that's hyperbole, but still...I think it was SE and E of the benchmark and then backed up to a position E of the Cape).

[Lava Rock]

20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The cold is really centered to our SW. Areas from Like AR,TN,KY,GA etc are going to be very cold from an anomaly standpoint. Maybe even challenging records. Our delivery sucks here, but it will be plenty cold this weekend.

nothing worse then having roaring SE winds, 50F, sideways rain, then less than 24hrs, back to stick season and mini ice skating rinks all over

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The only thing that aggravated me that winter was 3/5/15. The Bruce Willis event. That irked me...but I know I really have no business complaining.

Only consolation on that one was we saw it coming from a long ways out....we kept telling everyone to ignore the QPF maps and cut off the northern 30-50 miles because of those brutally dry northerly winds in the mid-levels. There were GFS runs that were giving me like 0.5-0.75 and I was expecting almost nothing.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Only consolation on that one was we saw it coming from a long ways out....we kept telling everyone to ignore the QPF maps and cut off the northern 30-50 miles because of those brutally dry northerly winds in the mid-levels. There were GFS runs that were giving me like 0.5-0.75 and I was expecting almost nothing.

I know...I didn't expect much either, but I was getting triggered looking south and literally seeing curtains of snow 15 miles away. Reminded me a bit of watching a distant tstm. It was backlit a bit too with dim sun. That was the rt 44 area getting blitzed. 

But that was the S coast turn after they missed out on the first two Feb events, so all good I guess. 

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I know...I didn't expect much either, but I was getting triggered looking south and literally seeing curtains of snow 15 miles away. Reminded me a bit of watching a distant tstm. It was backlit a bit too with dim sun. That was the rt 44 area getting blitzed. 

But that was the S coast turn after they missed out on the first two Feb events, so all good I guess. 

Yeah S RI coast to like EWB area kind of got shafted in both the 2/2 and 2/7-9 systems.

 

Ironically, Ray should've been up at his current place back then....he would've gotten into the Ginxy-ORH-495 band in the Jan blizzard and gotten near-jackpot totals in the 2/2 event.

[weatherwiz]

46 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The cold is really centered to our SW. Areas from Like AR,TN,KY,GA etc are going to be very cold from an anomaly standpoint. Maybe even challenging records. Our delivery sucks here, but it will be plenty cold this weekend.

This is some nuts cold out there. Memphis goes from like 50 mid Thursday afternoon to the single digits during the evening. That's pretty ridiculous. Even some of the previous Arctic blasts for them the last few years didn't see a drop as drastic as that. Wind chills there are going to be horrific. 

[Lava Rock]

15 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This is some nuts cold out there. Memphis goes from like 50 mid Thursday afternoon to the single digits during the evening. That's pretty ridiculous. Even some of the previous Arctic blasts for them the last few years didn't see a drop as drastic as that. Wind chills there are going to be horrific. 

that's pathetic they'll be colder than we will. I haven't even hit singles yet.

[weatherwiz]

24 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

that's pathetic they'll be colder than we will. I haven't even hit singles yet.

I feel bad for those waiting last second to ship out their holiday gifts Express later this week. 

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

The only thing that aggravated me that winter was 3/5/15. The Bruce Willis event. That irked me...but I know I really have no business complaining.

That winter was quite frustrating here even though it brought 125% of average snowfall.  I experienced 4 winter storm warning events - one in SNJ - that verified at 1/8 (or less) of the bottom of the forecast range, ending with the GYX "Valentine's Day Massacre".

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah S RI coast to like EWB area kind of got shafted in both the 2/2 and 2/7-9 systems.

 

Ironically, Ray should've been up at his current place back then....he would've gotten into the Ginxy-ORH-495 band in the Jan blizzard and gotten near-jackpot totals in the 2/2 event.

I was pretty close to that band in the Jan blizzard...def didn't get screwed

[Ginx snewx]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was pretty close to that band in the Jan blizzard...def didn't get screwed

I was outside plowing at night with 4 to 5" bands with winds mid 50s. Quite the night for Kevin to sleep and then pretend he was awake lol

[ORH_wxman]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was pretty close to that band in the Jan blizzard...def didn't get screwed

Nobody east of ORH got screwed but it was more “did you get 25” or 35”?”  

You’re current area was in that band that produced 30”+ totals. 

[Typhoon Tip]

4 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Even if we flip to a weak EL Nino next fall, due to the ocean-atmosphere lag it's still probably going to take quite a while for the atmosphere to respond accordingly. So the oceanic state could reflect that of a [weak] Nino, however, the atmosphere could still be more Nina-like. 

Now that doesn't mean anything bad, it's just for awareness purposes. The atmosphere doesn't respond to oceanic changes right away. 

These ENSO events have been having a tough time consistently coupling with the atmosphere. So it’s hard to imagine that that would be even more so when the ENSOs is weak. We’ve been in a coupled state the last three months but it’s not been the way it has been going last six or seven years.  Just bear that recent decadal trend in mind. 

[Maestrobjwa]

49 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

These ENSO events have been having a tough time consistently coupling with the atmosphere. So it’s hard to imagine that that would be even more so when the ENSOs is weak. We’ve been in a coupled state the last three months but it’s not been the way it has been going last six or seven years.  Just bear that recent decadal trend in mind. 

So the ninas the last 6-7 haven't been well coupled either?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Nobody east of ORH got screwed but it was more “did you get 25” or 35”?”  

You’re current area was in that band that produced 30”+ totals. 

I got high 20s in Wilmington..

[Euler_1]

I'm supposed to drive from NYC to southern VT on Friday.  Looks like I should change my plans.  Do you all think that trip on Friday will be a nightmare of rain and wind?

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Euler_1 said:

I'm supposed to drive from NYC to southern VT on Friday.  Looks like I should change my plans.  Do you all think that trip on Friday will be a nightmare of rain and wind?

It's gonna suck. But I sure would not want to do it late day when it's falling like a rock and a quick change to snow possible in VT. 

[weatherwiz]

13 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

These ENSO events have been having a tough time consistently coupling with the atmosphere. So it’s hard to imagine that that would be even more so when the ENSOs is weak. We’ve been in a coupled state the last three months but it’s not been the way it has been going last six or seven years.  Just bear that recent decadal trend in mind. 

Yeah that's a great point. 

[Ginx snewx]